Statistically.. Odds for getting a CVST ("the side effect") is 5 people out of 1 million yearly (normally). The J&J vax would be below the "normal" occurrence at 1 person in 1 million people. But this is assuming there are really only 6 cases out of 6+ million doses. So of those 6+ million people who received the J&J vax ~30 of them were going to get a CVST that year anyway. (even without the vax)
Absolutely, but take into account the window in which it occurred and that becomes a significantly more worrisome probability of a causative relationship.
True it's worth a look, and should be investigated. But again if you have a population of 6 million and ~30 of them will have a CVST this year. That works out to 1 case every ~2.5 weeks . If the 6 occurrences go back to the beginning of the year that would still be inline statistically as 5.6 people of the 6 million people in that group would have had a CVST by today. Now if they occurred in the last two weeks at once that is a concern.
Worth noting that they didn’t specify that the total number of cases is six either. Just that they are investigating six cases. They live using wiggle words.
Statistically.. Odds for getting a CVST ("the side effect") is 5 people out of 1 million yearly (normally). The J&J vax would be below the "normal" occurrence at 1 person in 1 million people. But this is assuming there are really only 6 cases out of 6+ million doses. So of those 6+ million people who received the J&J vax ~30 of them were going to get a CVST that year anyway. (even without the vax)
Absolutely, but take into account the window in which it occurred and that becomes a significantly more worrisome probability of a causative relationship.
True it's worth a look, and should be investigated. But again if you have a population of 6 million and ~30 of them will have a CVST this year. That works out to 1 case every ~2.5 weeks . If the 6 occurrences go back to the beginning of the year that would still be inline statistically as 5.6 people of the 6 million people in that group would have had a CVST by today. Now if they occurred in the last two weeks at once that is a concern.
Worth noting that they didn’t specify that the total number of cases is six either. Just that they are investigating six cases. They live using wiggle words.
Yep, very true.