*disregard the majority of the denominator composed of vaccinated people who didn't get Covid
Hypothetically if 30,000 get vaccinated and 1,000 of those have "breakthrough" Covid cases (96% effective) and 70 of those 1000 are hospitalized, you could say that 7% were hospitalized. It's 0.2% of the total though. You would also expect the people who couldn't properly develop immunity to be more at risk anyway, since they're immunocompromised to some extent.
This whole thing is a statistical mess though because some vaccines are more like 60% effective (J&J) and not everyone who got vaccinated has been exposed to Covid and had their immunity tested. The real denominator would be the breakthrough cases + the portion of vaccinated people who would have caught it if they weren't vaccinated.
There was also outcome reporting bias in the mRNA vaccine trials. They only looked at relative risk as opposed to absolute risk. When looking at absolute risk the vaccines had a minimal impact.
"Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy."
FULLY VACCINATED PEOPLE ARE HOSPITALIZED BY COVID AT A HIGHER RATE THAN UNVACCINATED PEOPLE
*disregard the majority of the denominator composed of vaccinated people who didn't get Covid
Hypothetically if 30,000 get vaccinated and 1,000 of those have "breakthrough" Covid cases (96% effective) and 70 of those 1000 are hospitalized, you could say that 7% were hospitalized. It's 0.2% of the total though. You would also expect the people who couldn't properly develop immunity to be more at risk anyway, since they're immunocompromised to some extent.
This whole thing is a statistical mess though because some vaccines are more like 60% effective (J&J) and not everyone who got vaccinated has been exposed to Covid and had their immunity tested. The real denominator would be the breakthrough cases + the portion of vaccinated people who would have caught it if they weren't vaccinated.
There was also outcome reporting bias in the mRNA vaccine trials. They only looked at relative risk as opposed to absolute risk. When looking at absolute risk the vaccines had a minimal impact.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33652582/
"Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy."