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Kwixak 3 points ago +4 / -1

CNN looks for sensationalism, but for once this virus is really scary

R0 between 3.3-5.5 (common flu 1.3) so many people are going to get infected https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

exponential progression https://www.nejm.org/doi/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

infectious from day one, could be asymptomatic for 14 days https://www.sciencealert.com/wuhan-coronavirus-can-be-infectious-before-people-show-symptoms-official-claims

Case fatality rate > 10%

11% https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

15% https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf

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UltimatePistachio 3 points ago +3 / -0

I'm not scared and will think you're just panic mongering; until I actually hear of people I know getting sick, then I'll be a little scared.

I'm not going to be surprised if they start offering vaccines for this soon, which I'm not going to touch unless an actual problem is tangible.

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V_exodus 2 points ago +2 / -0

Exactly. Big Pharma wants to get $vaccine on the market without 1 year wait, and know fear will make people demand it more quickly even while experimental! This new vacc contains RNA. Line up, guinea pigs!

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deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
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Belleoffreedom 3 points ago +3 / -0

Fear-mongering; the problem is real, but some exaggerations

"exponential progression"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316


Early period of exponential growth -- common to any new infection, more an artifact of low numbers than anything else. Easy to use for scary stories.


"infectious from day one, could be asymptomatic for 14 days "

https://www.sciencealert.com/wuhan-coronavirus-can-be-infectious-before-people-show-symptoms-official-claims


Claim now disputed in US, however, voluntary quarantines are in effect


"Case fatality rate > 10%"

11% https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext 15% https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf


First identified cases, selected from those most acutely affected. All had pneumonia. Does not include possibly large pool of people who are infected, but not reported, due to minor symptoms.


There is no doubt this disease merits the voluntary cancellation of air travel to China by most airlines, and voluntary quarantine of US citizens evacuated from China.

The reported numbers will change; these have been cherry-picked early for maximum scare value.

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UltimatePistachio 2 points ago +2 / -0

Exactly, as with everything you should exercise caution but take it all with a grain of salt. I'm not taking any of this information at face value and certainly not going to change my behavior at all from this; if I start to hear about neighbors/coworkers/friends suddenly getting sick I'll probably start being like "oh shit!" but we're nowhere close to that right now, even though there's lots of people who want you to worry and think that way right now.

Even if these figures were correct, the population densities in the areas being infected are way higher than over here so I'm still not going to give a shit about this until spread actually happens here and it's the truth (which you can't really at it is until you see it for yourself)

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deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0