Ok pedes...please allow me to explain how mortality rates calculation works.
I will use an example of baseball
Let's say you have a batter who is practicing to hit home runs one day.
That is all he cares about....hit the ball out of park....got it so far?
He has a bin full of balls and a tee to hit them off of. We do not know how many balls he has in the bin, we just know there are a lot of them and we know he will not quit for the day until he hits them all....good so far?...good!
After a few minutes of hitting, he has hit 10 out of the park and 90 of them NOT out of the park.
You count them up (10+90=100 balls hit)
Now, to find his "out of the park" rate you divide 10 by 100 and get a rate of 10%
So far, so good?
We still do not know how many balls are left in the bin but we can say, however many balls are left, there is a pretty good chance that he will hit 10% of them out of the park.
In other words, however many balls that are still left in the bin does not change his average "out of the park" hit rate.
The only two numbers that DO matter is the numbers of balls hit "out of the park" and the number of balls that did not go "out of the park"
So...The global average death rate for this virus is like this: Did an infected person die or did an infected person NOT die?
Dead vs recovered.
Total cases are NOT used for mortality rates. Only deaths and recovered.
So to figure out of the park (mortality) rate= 2769+30002=32,771
and then 2,769/32,771= 0.084 (times it by 100 to get the percentage)=8.4% average global mortality rate.
Now with that percentage you can calculate how many deaths we can expect...on average.....by multiplying it by the total world wide cases.
*extreme note though
This rate is for the worldwide average....individual countries mortality rate will be different because of different levels of healthcare!!!!!
I do not expect this rate in the US...i expect a MUCH lower rate.
Ok pedes...please allow me to explain how mortality rates calculation works.
I will use an example of baseball
Let's say you have a batter who is practicing to hit home runs one day.
That is all he cares about....hit the ball out of park....got it so far?
He has a bin full of balls and a tee to hit them off of. We do not know how many balls he has in the bin, we just know there are a lot of them and we know he will not quit for the day until he hits them all....good so far?...good!
After a few minutes of hitting, he has hit 10 out of the park and 90 of them NOT out of the park.
You count them up (10+90=100 balls hit)
Now, to find his "out of the park" rate you divide 10 by 100 and get a rate of 10% So far, so good?
We still do not know how many balls are left in the bin but we can say, however many balls are left, there is a pretty good chance that he will hit 10% of them out of the park.
In other words, however many balls that are still left in the bin does not change his average "out of the park" hit rate.
The only two numbers that DO matter is the numbers of balls hit "out of the park" and the number of balls that did not go "out of the park"
So...The global average death rate for this virus is like this: Did an infected person die or did an infected person NOT die?
Dead vs recovered.
Total cases are NOT used for mortality rates. Only deaths and recovered.
Right now, via this site : https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/
Dead=2,769 Recovered=30,002
So to figure out of the park (mortality) rate= 2769+30002=32,771
and then 2,769/32,771= 0.084 (times it by 100 to get the percentage)=8.4% average global mortality rate.
Now with that percentage you can calculate how many deaths we can expect...on average.....by multiplying it by the total world wide cases.
*extreme note though This rate is for the worldwide average....individual countries mortality rate will be different because of different levels of healthcare!!!!!
I do not expect this rate in the US...i expect a MUCH lower rate.
BTW...the current US rate is 0% mortality