Five Positives of Coronavirus

posted 1 year ago by Barron2044 1 year ago by Barron2044 +59 / -0

Encourages all nations to strengthen their borders. Another major blow to globalism. Build the wall.
Pressures China for more cooporation with the USA. Along with the pressures of major trade agreements, Hong Kong uprising and Taiwan loyalty, China's Communist party hold on its Republic is weakening.
Coronavirus has a chance to break the Iranian government in advance of regime change back into a western style government. The Iranian government may not be capable of leading through an epidemic. We are at the ready to free Iran's people.
The recognition of how lucky we are to live in the USA. Coronavirus will have almost no impact on our lives outside of media hysteria. Our medical system is adaptable beyond the worse case scenario of this epidemic, while simultaneously creating a cure.
Everybody's a prepper now.

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– scooterdog 2 points 1 year ago +2 / -0

Nice perspective.

Further on point 2, something I've read a bit about (and have close personal connection to China). This black swan event, for a system like China's that is NOT anti-fragile (to use Taleb's term), already grappling with the HK protests (black swan event #1) and a property devaluation and growth slowdown, could bring about a repeat of China's long history - the breakdown of the agreement between the ruled and the rulers.

SARS2-CoV-2019 was produced by an authoritarian regime. Walter Mead's piece in the WSJ, Is China the Sick Man of Asia?, got 3 WSJ reporters ejected from China.

And the salient part is here:

Epidemics also lead us to think about geopolitical and economic hypotheticals. We have seen financial markets shudder and commodity prices fall in the face of what hopefully will be a short-lived disturbance in China’s economic growth. What would happen if—perhaps in response to an epidemic, but more likely following a massive financial collapse—China’s economy were to suffer a long period of even slower growth? What would be the impact of such developments on China’s political stability, on its attitude toward the rest of the world, and to the global balance of power?

China’s financial markets are probably more dangerous in the long run than China’s wildlife markets. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, massive malfeasance by local officials in cahoots with local banks, a towering property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, China is as ripe as a country can be for a massive economic correction. Even a small initial shock could lead to a massive bonfire of the vanities as all the false values, inflated expectations and misallocated assets implode. If that comes, it is far from clear that China’s regulators and decision makers have the technical skills or the political authority to minimize the damage—especially since that would involve enormous losses to the wealth of the politically connected.

Widespread corruption, ham-handed authoritarianism, it has been seen before. And Chinese know their history - they've lived through it before.