Obviously it wont be as bad as H1N1, but that doesn't mean it will be fine.
Yes the mortality rates are higher in Italy because the average age is higher, but even if you take the country with the most testing and lowest death rate South Korea, which has a death rate of 0.7%, it is worse than the flu given it has an average death rate of 0.1%. You have to remember it's a novel virus which we have not been exposed to before, the flu, although it varies each year, is not novel. We have some immunity to it.
Tell me, why will the US fare better than Denmark, Germany, France, Spain etc. In terms of spread and death rate? They all have massive community spread and their hospitals are running out of ICU beds. Tell me how often does the flu cause ICUs around the world to be overrun with 5 times the number of people in need than beds available?
Tell me how often does the flu cause ICUs around the world to be overrun with 5 times the number of people in need than beds available?
Well, it's not happening right now so I'm not sure why you are even bringing it up right now. Once again, this is why you are a spreading false information that is driving the fearmongering. You are just as bad as the media and you need to realize this.
Look at what you just did, you just fucking completely dismissed the facts that we know right now based on actual information and instead chose to vomit out the fearmongering bullshit that is being spewed out by the media that pretends we're seeing the worst case scenario right now when we absolutely aren't.
Right now, there are 127,863 confirmed cases globally. You are sitting there lying to me that somehow even if we have the 20% rate of hospitalization which is the worst case scenario, that we don't have ~25,000 beds globally? Horse shit.
So, tell me how the fuck you aren't just a fearmongering piece of shit? Why do you feel like you can fucking ignore the facts and spout off the lying garbage that you are pushing out?
And don't you dare dismiss the facts that I'm presenting again because it just makes your comments worse.
It is happening in Italy. The number of cases who are critically ill and need ICU far outnumbers the amount of beds they have.
"Right now, there are 127,863 confirmed cases globally. You are sitting there lying to me that somehow even if we have the 20% rate of hospitalization which is the worst case scenario, that we don't have ~25,000 beds globally? Horse shit."
I hope after you reread what you just wrote, you realise how flawed your logic is.. wtf lol. You cant just take the number of cases globally and divide it to find the number of beds needed and say 'we have that many beds on the globe'
The 127k cases number is not spread equally around the global, it is made up cases in certain countries, many of which have far higher proportion of cases relative to how much they make up of the global population (i.e. italy has 11% of the worlds cases, but only makes up 0.8% of the global population. Therefore it wont have 11% of the worlds beds...)
Just because we have 25k beds globally, does not mean the countries who need beds have them. The 25k cases are not spread around the world proportionally as you funnily assumed.
Italy currently says 10% of infected cases need ICU. They have 14k cases. That means 1400 in ICU. ICU stands for intensive care unit and it requires way more equipment than a regular hospital bed. For Covid19 it means delivering ventilation to patients, meaning you need the ventilators, and all the monitoring equipment to supply the right amount etc. They currently are overrun and people who need ICU are unable to get it.
Your 'facts' are combined with your flawed logic sadly, where you think we can just distribute the number of cases around the globe and have beds for everyone when like 25% of the cases are in italy and south korea which are tiny countries
It is happening in Italy. The number of cases who are critically ill and need ICU far outnumbers the amount of beds they have.
I want you to understand that you can't post this without a source. When you don't post it with a source then it's you continuing to fearmonger. So either produce a source or admit you are doing nothing but fearmongering and spreading false information.
(i.e. italy has 11% of the worlds cases, but only makes up 0.8% of the global population. Therefore it wont have 11% of the worlds beds...)
I hope after you reread what you just wrote, you realize how flawed your logic is.
The number of beds available is not determined by the number of those infected by the virus.
I have no fucking idea why you think that every single person that is infected needs to have a bed in the hospital. That's such a lie that it screams you are pushing narrative and not fact.
Just because we have 25k beds globally, does not mean the countries who need beds have them. The 25k cases are not spread around the world proportionally as you funnily assumed.
Where did I assume that? No, I didn't assume that. You made a stupid comment and now you are desperately trying to find some place to attack me so you make up lies in order to do it. Just when you can't get any worse, here you are being even more of a narrative driven shill. I hope you are getting paid for the bullshit you are spewing.
The US admits over 35 million people per year into hospitals. That's ~673,000 people are admitted PER WEEK. It's not about having 25k beds globally that makes it a trivial problem. It's about the fact that admission rates within hospitals are already exponentially higher than what we are facing as part of the critically infected.
Italy currently says 10% of infected cases need ICU. They have 14k cases. That means 1400 in ICU. ICU stands for intensive care unit and it requires way more equipment than a regular hospital bed.
You have provided zero sources. You have provided failed logic. You have deliberately changed my arguments and attacked your ignorant understanding of it. Let me put it this way, you are a fucking moron if you think that you can discredit anything that I'm saying.
So, this is what you are going to do. You are either going to come to terms that you are just fearmongering and that you've lapped up everything that the media has shoved under you nose to scare you, or you are going to start fucking educating yourself so you actually know what the fuck is going on. And don't you dare make another fucking post without sources because it will not end well for you.
The funny thing is, we will both see who is actually right here in a few days. The US is the last major country/region to be hit by this, right now all of asia is on lockdown and so are most european countries. You say its 'just like the flu' and that the healthcare system will be able to manage it, even without quarantine, well then why are all countries across europe and asia on lockdown? Germany, spain, france, italy, ireland, denmark, the list goes on, they have 1. shut down all schools and colleges and 2. either fully shutdown all workplaces, or shutdown non-essential workplaces.
How can you even continue your argument with half the world on lockdown. Do you genuinely think the US is different?
"There are over 1,000 hospitals in Italy. Are you suggesting that across all of those hospitals, they have less than 1.4 ICU beds on average?"
They have more beds, but you are forgetting that a lot of beds are already occupied. Italy has 12.5 beds per 1000 inhabitants
Giorgio Gori, Bergamo mayor, tweeted: “It seems that the increase [in the number of cases] is slowing down, but it’s only because we have no longer beds in intensive care (few are added with great effort). Patients who cannot be treated are left to die”
And by the way, italys hospitals being this full is even with the fact they quarantined the entire country. Nobody is going to school, college, and only those who work in pharmacies or grocery stores are allowed to work. Even at that, they still have their hospitals over run.
"And don't you dare make another fucking post without sources because it will not end well for you." oh god you are terrifying.. especially given that you are an 'important person' please dont hurt me!
Obviously it wont be as bad as H1N1, but that doesn't mean it will be fine. Yes the mortality rates are higher in Italy because the average age is higher, but even if you take the country with the most testing and lowest death rate South Korea, which has a death rate of 0.7%, it is worse than the flu given it has an average death rate of 0.1%. You have to remember it's a novel virus which we have not been exposed to before, the flu, although it varies each year, is not novel. We have some immunity to it. Tell me, why will the US fare better than Denmark, Germany, France, Spain etc. In terms of spread and death rate? They all have massive community spread and their hospitals are running out of ICU beds. Tell me how often does the flu cause ICUs around the world to be overrun with 5 times the number of people in need than beds available?
Well, it's not happening right now so I'm not sure why you are even bringing it up right now. Once again, this is why you are a spreading false information that is driving the fearmongering. You are just as bad as the media and you need to realize this.
Look at what you just did, you just fucking completely dismissed the facts that we know right now based on actual information and instead chose to vomit out the fearmongering bullshit that is being spewed out by the media that pretends we're seeing the worst case scenario right now when we absolutely aren't.
Right now, there are 127,863 confirmed cases globally. You are sitting there lying to me that somehow even if we have the 20% rate of hospitalization which is the worst case scenario, that we don't have ~25,000 beds globally? Horse shit.
So, tell me how the fuck you aren't just a fearmongering piece of shit? Why do you feel like you can fucking ignore the facts and spout off the lying garbage that you are pushing out?
And don't you dare dismiss the facts that I'm presenting again because it just makes your comments worse.
It is happening in Italy. The number of cases who are critically ill and need ICU far outnumbers the amount of beds they have.
"Right now, there are 127,863 confirmed cases globally. You are sitting there lying to me that somehow even if we have the 20% rate of hospitalization which is the worst case scenario, that we don't have ~25,000 beds globally? Horse shit."
I hope after you reread what you just wrote, you realise how flawed your logic is.. wtf lol. You cant just take the number of cases globally and divide it to find the number of beds needed and say 'we have that many beds on the globe' The 127k cases number is not spread equally around the global, it is made up cases in certain countries, many of which have far higher proportion of cases relative to how much they make up of the global population (i.e. italy has 11% of the worlds cases, but only makes up 0.8% of the global population. Therefore it wont have 11% of the worlds beds...)
Just because we have 25k beds globally, does not mean the countries who need beds have them. The 25k cases are not spread around the world proportionally as you funnily assumed.
Italy currently says 10% of infected cases need ICU. They have 14k cases. That means 1400 in ICU. ICU stands for intensive care unit and it requires way more equipment than a regular hospital bed. For Covid19 it means delivering ventilation to patients, meaning you need the ventilators, and all the monitoring equipment to supply the right amount etc. They currently are overrun and people who need ICU are unable to get it.
Your 'facts' are combined with your flawed logic sadly, where you think we can just distribute the number of cases around the globe and have beds for everyone when like 25% of the cases are in italy and south korea which are tiny countries
I want you to understand that you can't post this without a source. When you don't post it with a source then it's you continuing to fearmonger. So either produce a source or admit you are doing nothing but fearmongering and spreading false information.
I hope after you reread what you just wrote, you realize how flawed your logic is.
Where did I assume that? No, I didn't assume that. You made a stupid comment and now you are desperately trying to find some place to attack me so you make up lies in order to do it. Just when you can't get any worse, here you are being even more of a narrative driven shill. I hope you are getting paid for the bullshit you are spewing.
The US admits over 35 million people per year into hospitals. That's ~673,000 people are admitted PER WEEK. It's not about having 25k beds globally that makes it a trivial problem. It's about the fact that admission rates within hospitals are already exponentially higher than what we are facing as part of the critically infected.
There are over 1,000 hospitals in Italy. Are you suggesting that across all of those hospitals, they have less than 1.4 ICU beds on average?
You have provided zero sources. You have provided failed logic. You have deliberately changed my arguments and attacked your ignorant understanding of it. Let me put it this way, you are a fucking moron if you think that you can discredit anything that I'm saying.
So, this is what you are going to do. You are either going to come to terms that you are just fearmongering and that you've lapped up everything that the media has shoved under you nose to scare you, or you are going to start fucking educating yourself so you actually know what the fuck is going on. And don't you dare make another fucking post without sources because it will not end well for you.
The funny thing is, we will both see who is actually right here in a few days. The US is the last major country/region to be hit by this, right now all of asia is on lockdown and so are most european countries. You say its 'just like the flu' and that the healthcare system will be able to manage it, even without quarantine, well then why are all countries across europe and asia on lockdown? Germany, spain, france, italy, ireland, denmark, the list goes on, they have 1. shut down all schools and colleges and 2. either fully shutdown all workplaces, or shutdown non-essential workplaces.
How can you even continue your argument with half the world on lockdown. Do you genuinely think the US is different?
"There are over 1,000 hospitals in Italy. Are you suggesting that across all of those hospitals, they have less than 1.4 ICU beds on average?"
They have more beds, but you are forgetting that a lot of beds are already occupied. Italy has 12.5 beds per 1000 inhabitants
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3c3ef430-63c5-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700)
which means they have 7500 given a population of 60 million. But obviously they do not have 7500 beds free for coronavirus patients.
https://www.ft.com/content/34f25036-62f4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
Giorgio Gori, Bergamo mayor, tweeted: “It seems that the increase [in the number of cases] is slowing down, but it’s only because we have no longer beds in intensive care (few are added with great effort). Patients who cannot be treated are left to die”
And by the way, italys hospitals being this full is even with the fact they quarantined the entire country. Nobody is going to school, college, and only those who work in pharmacies or grocery stores are allowed to work. Even at that, they still have their hospitals over run.
"And don't you dare make another fucking post without sources because it will not end well for you." oh god you are terrifying.. especially given that you are an 'important person' please dont hurt me!