Considering the fact that medical experts actually studying this virus, not some talking head who plays a medical expert on TV, have discovered that a large percentage of people are carrying the virus, yet not displaying the symptoms, the actual number of infected people is largely under reported. Thus, the mortality rate is being largely exaggerated, probably on purpose by the media.
Also, since this virus seems to attack the elderly, the numbers from China are not indicitive of the actual threat. You have to remember, the culture in China vs the rest of the world is very different. In China, most households have elderly people, as most families live with their elderly parents and grand parents, something that just does not happen in the rest of the world at ANY percentage like China. So if you come home with the virus in China, congrats, you just infected your grandma. Not so much in the US or other western countries. Lets not even get into the fact that a homeless person in the US has access to healthcare peasents in China can only dream of, and thats a homeless dude. A person in the US with health insurance has access to the best health care in the world, something even a sick person in Italy only dreams of.
...[Dr. Drew] makes the exact same point you make about the inaccurate denominator when calculating the fatality rate...
We don't know the "true denominator" for any flu variant. People go to the hospital when they get REALLY sick, and we calculate mortality rates based on this number. If COVID-19 is killing (conservatively) 10x as many really sick people, it's still significantly more lethal.
Acknowledging that you have incomplete data is the furthest thing from nonsense if you have even the slightest intention of doing accurate, honest data analysis.
Agreed, and that's exactly what's happening. The numbers are still concerning.
The raw data indicates 30x mortality vs. the seasonal flu. The 10x number I gave is our current best estimate accounting for incomplete data. That's not something to be taken lightly, especially when considering the significantly higher transmission rates of this virus vs. SARS and other flu variants.
Considering the fact that medical experts actually studying this virus, not some talking head who plays a medical expert on TV, have discovered that a large percentage of people are carrying the virus, yet not displaying the symptoms, the actual number of infected people is largely under reported. Thus, the mortality rate is being largely exaggerated, probably on purpose by the media.
Also, since this virus seems to attack the elderly, the numbers from China are not indicitive of the actual threat. You have to remember, the culture in China vs the rest of the world is very different. In China, most households have elderly people, as most families live with their elderly parents and grand parents, something that just does not happen in the rest of the world at ANY percentage like China. So if you come home with the virus in China, congrats, you just infected your grandma. Not so much in the US or other western countries. Lets not even get into the fact that a homeless person in the US has access to healthcare peasents in China can only dream of, and thats a homeless dude. A person in the US with health insurance has access to the best health care in the world, something even a sick person in Italy only dreams of.
We don't know the "true denominator" for any flu variant. People go to the hospital when they get REALLY sick, and we calculate mortality rates based on this number. If COVID-19 is killing (conservatively) 10x as many really sick people, it's still significantly more lethal.
Agreed, and that's exactly what's happening. The numbers are still concerning.
The raw data indicates 30x mortality vs. the seasonal flu. The 10x number I gave is our current best estimate accounting for incomplete data. That's not something to be taken lightly, especially when considering the significantly higher transmission rates of this virus vs. SARS and other flu variants.