We will have a recession, by 3Q in fact. I was due regardless, and the Fed on the brake in 2018 has as much to do with it as the present virus-crisis trigger. We’ll get through that, but don’t try to pangloss optimism this away; it’s poor salesmenship.

When folks see authorities deny difficulties and the difficulties mount anyway, they conclude no one is in control and panic more. When instead authorities announce and confront them, summon the people to fight against those difficulties, and promise blood toil tears and sweat before redemption out the other side, they radiate confidence and ability and people knuckle down for the long haul.