Ok, first off, 3.4 is based on the confirmed cases we have. Likely many more people have had it and still have it, they didn’t get tested. Why you ask? Because they didn’t feel like going to the doctor, and/or the doctor didn’t have a test for them. So who is getting tested? People more likely to die from this or any disease for that matter. So the 3.4 number is greatly skewed. Secondly why haven’t 49 million people been infected yet then? This virus is supposed to kill a million yet it can’t even infect more than 150,000 so far. Once again, it’s probably because there are many people that have it that don’t realize it, and most of those people aren’t going to die.
Less than 200,000 cases of documented COVID-19 to justify 3.4%. Anyone that understands binomial or normal distribution knows it takes a large sample..particularly with the case of a virus to understand its mortality rate. Need more data points as I've said before. We only have a small barely 3 month window. More cases, better normalization under a bell curve. Mortality rate will shift left and right until it settles.
But the corona virus/Wuhan virus is still spreading. And the number of documented cases might be much lower than the actual number of cases. And it spreads without symptoms for at least 2 weeks, which makes limiting its spread (much) more challenging. The earlier you stop its spread and isolate it, the easier it is prevent further spread, and likewise, the more it has already spread, the more difficult it is to stop its spread and isolate it.
It's important to realize that the reason why it's underreported right now is because over 80% of those infected show only minor symptoms. This would lead a lot of people to coincidentally follow the advice of the CDC/WHO and stay home and drink fluids.
[...] over 80% of those infected show only minor symptoms.
Source? And wouldn't it be more likely that the majority or vast majority of infected show no symptoms? Which would cause most to not stay home like you write?
The current mortality rate isn’t acceptable based on what we know.
The amount of corona cases is drastically under reported and the number of influenza cases in highly over estimated. I’ll concede to numbers that meet these variables in the middle, but that still puts us around 2% at best.
Because that's a mortality rate of 0.1% versus COVID-19's 3.4%.
If 49m people get COVID-19, we are looking at 1,660,000 deaths versus the 52,000 influenza deaths.
I don't buy this 3.4% #. Especially since Ohio says that 100,000 people have the virus now.
Ok, first off, 3.4 is based on the confirmed cases we have. Likely many more people have had it and still have it, they didn’t get tested. Why you ask? Because they didn’t feel like going to the doctor, and/or the doctor didn’t have a test for them. So who is getting tested? People more likely to die from this or any disease for that matter. So the 3.4 number is greatly skewed. Secondly why haven’t 49 million people been infected yet then? This virus is supposed to kill a million yet it can’t even infect more than 150,000 so far. Once again, it’s probably because there are many people that have it that don’t realize it, and most of those people aren’t going to die.
Less than 200,000 cases of documented COVID-19 to justify 3.4%. Anyone that understands binomial or normal distribution knows it takes a large sample..particularly with the case of a virus to understand its mortality rate. Need more data points as I've said before. We only have a small barely 3 month window. More cases, better normalization under a bell curve. Mortality rate will shift left and right until it settles.
But the corona virus/Wuhan virus is still spreading. And the number of documented cases might be much lower than the actual number of cases. And it spreads without symptoms for at least 2 weeks, which makes limiting its spread (much) more challenging. The earlier you stop its spread and isolate it, the easier it is prevent further spread, and likewise, the more it has already spread, the more difficult it is to stop its spread and isolate it.
As a side-note: Any thoughts on these links?
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Supposedly Italian doctors: https://files.catbox.moe/3ns6c1.mp4 , https://pastebin.com/RB1TZEF1
Interview with Italian doctor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE
It's important to realize that the reason why it's underreported right now is because over 80% of those infected show only minor symptoms. This would lead a lot of people to coincidentally follow the advice of the CDC/WHO and stay home and drink fluids.
Source? And wouldn't it be more likely that the majority or vast majority of infected show no symptoms? Which would cause most to not stay home like you write?
The current mortality rate isn’t acceptable based on what we know.
The amount of corona cases is drastically under reported and the number of influenza cases in highly over estimated. I’ll concede to numbers that meet these variables in the middle, but that still puts us around 2% at best.
https://m.imgur.com/gallery/BnKEcgr
Also that's the mortality rate of known cases faggot. The 3.5% is likely at least half given how many people only had mild symptoms