At least we know a lot more than back during the Spanish Flu pandemic. The troops during WWI were carrying it around with them and even those on trains would spread it at every train stop to the local towns. Shutting down travel is the first and best action to take.
It's better to look at the South Korean numbers. They're the ones doing more extensive testing than any other country presently, and the statistics are probably closer to the truth. It's the reason the lethality rate there is around 0.6-0.7%. Still high but nowhere near the 2-3% some of the panic-peddlers are peddling.
The lethality rate could even be substantially lower. We don't know what percentage of the population is infected with mild or asymptomatic disease. It could go both ways:
The current measurements are accurate and the infection rate has been limited by direct intervention. This means the lethality rate is 1% or higher and the disease will see more fatalities than the 2009 H1N1.
The current measurements are inaccurate and the infection rate continues wider than deduced by current testing regimens. This means the lethality rate is much less than 1% but the disease is spreading faster than we can contain.
Given the South Korean numbers with nearly 200,000 tests as of yesterday, I'm more inclined to think that there's a large asymptomatic spread. This would be good and bad news: Good because it's not as dangerous as has been claimed, and bad because it's more likely to infect the people who will actually die from this disease.
So no, you don't really need to pay attention to the Chinese numbers. In fact, you can ignore them and come to pretty much the same conclusion, which is that we need more information.
It could go either way. I don't trust Chinese numbers, but a brutal response could be effective. I've heard people were welded into apartments, supply of food be damned. That's a real quarantine.
But maybe that report is bs and all part of the show. Who knows... Just buckle up.
After restricting their number of births, they've become one giant old folks home. Their huge disaster could have been a result of having so many elderly, plus the fact that these elderly live with their younger relatives who only had mild symptoms and then killed off their elderly with it.
I don’t have a problem with the numbers, but your assessment is off.
Swine flu killed 12,000. Influenza kills 4x’s that every year on average. The reason he shut down movement from current hot spots is to reduce the spread. The expectation of lowering the number of cases by refusing entrance to America from those areas is not a drastic measure, but just common sense.
There is no ulterior motive behind this move and it does not suggest a bigger problem than what we can actually see. I’ll refrain from saying it’s a nothing burger, but it ain’t a double with cheese either.
There is no ulterior motive behind this move and it does not suggest a bigger problem than what we can actually see. I’ll refrain from saying it’s a nothing burger, but it ain’t a double with cheese either.
Exactly.
The entire point behind slowing the spread is to buy time to develop treatments. Since we already have existing drugs that show promising results inhibiting progress of the disease and limiting viral replication, if we can buy 1-2 more months we may be able to determine if this is the best course of action. And, if so, then we can go from clinical trials to eventually providing therapy to patients infected with the disease in the coming months.
If it turns out to have a higher than normal lethality rate, then we'll have bought time for treatment. If not, then we've bought time to treat the cases that don't have good outcomes and reduce the overall population getting sick.
At least we know a lot more than back during the Spanish Flu pandemic. The troops during WWI were carrying it around with them and even those on trains would spread it at every train stop to the local towns. Shutting down travel is the first and best action to take.
It's better to look at the South Korean numbers. They're the ones doing more extensive testing than any other country presently, and the statistics are probably closer to the truth. It's the reason the lethality rate there is around 0.6-0.7%. Still high but nowhere near the 2-3% some of the panic-peddlers are peddling.
The lethality rate could even be substantially lower. We don't know what percentage of the population is infected with mild or asymptomatic disease. It could go both ways:
The current measurements are accurate and the infection rate has been limited by direct intervention. This means the lethality rate is 1% or higher and the disease will see more fatalities than the 2009 H1N1.
The current measurements are inaccurate and the infection rate continues wider than deduced by current testing regimens. This means the lethality rate is much less than 1% but the disease is spreading faster than we can contain.
Given the South Korean numbers with nearly 200,000 tests as of yesterday, I'm more inclined to think that there's a large asymptomatic spread. This would be good and bad news: Good because it's not as dangerous as has been claimed, and bad because it's more likely to infect the people who will actually die from this disease.
So no, you don't really need to pay attention to the Chinese numbers. In fact, you can ignore them and come to pretty much the same conclusion, which is that we need more information.
It could go either way. I don't trust Chinese numbers, but a brutal response could be effective. I've heard people were welded into apartments, supply of food be damned. That's a real quarantine.
But maybe that report is bs and all part of the show. Who knows... Just buckle up.
After restricting their number of births, they've become one giant old folks home. Their huge disaster could have been a result of having so many elderly, plus the fact that these elderly live with their younger relatives who only had mild symptoms and then killed off their elderly with it.
Or everyone is responding severely now so things don’t get bad. It’s smart to take this seriously early on before worldwide numbers hit 1 million
AGREE !!
I don’t have a problem with the numbers, but your assessment is off.
Swine flu killed 12,000. Influenza kills 4x’s that every year on average. The reason he shut down movement from current hot spots is to reduce the spread. The expectation of lowering the number of cases by refusing entrance to America from those areas is not a drastic measure, but just common sense.
There is no ulterior motive behind this move and it does not suggest a bigger problem than what we can actually see. I’ll refrain from saying it’s a nothing burger, but it ain’t a double with cheese either.
Exactly.
The entire point behind slowing the spread is to buy time to develop treatments. Since we already have existing drugs that show promising results inhibiting progress of the disease and limiting viral replication, if we can buy 1-2 more months we may be able to determine if this is the best course of action. And, if so, then we can go from clinical trials to eventually providing therapy to patients infected with the disease in the coming months.
If it turns out to have a higher than normal lethality rate, then we'll have bought time for treatment. If not, then we've bought time to treat the cases that don't have good outcomes and reduce the overall population getting sick.
What President Trump is doing is really a win-win