Okay triple the numbers, still not million, how about 10x, still not a million.
China has higher smoking rates, worse air pollution, worse hygiene (except Democrat run shit holes) and worse healthcare.
Lol, why are the fear-mongers so eager to ignore the data we've seen from China, South Korea and Japan, all of whom have blunted the spread of the virus in their country.
Can’t agree more with this. While I don’t trust China’s info, I do trust SK - further, SK had a quick response and available mobile testing which means their data on fatalities, i.e., diagnosed/dead is likely the most accurate and the worst case scenario - worse than the flu, but it’s the plague. We should be cautions and seek to flatten the spread and run on resources/hospitals. If we’re careful and reasonable, we can avoid chaos - yes, people will die but TP won’t help.
Any time a communucations / journalism / (insert victim here ) studies major start explaining math, I get very suspicious, they were the party degree people who laughed at stem students for studying it in the first place
Viral infections such as these don’t follow an exponential hockey stick projection due to the weakening of the virus as it spreads coupled with recovery rates. The inversion point is what is most important and attempting to minimize the height of the curve is what is has been taking place .
We will still see many infected and thousands dead, but I promise it won’t expand as projected by math which doesn’t parallel the reality of biology.
Best predictor is past performance. SK data is pretty good and can be trusted and is the worst case for a country like the US where our response was not quite as fast, but we had advanced warning. Trying to ‘science’ or ‘math’ it too much is pointless, we have the best data we can get at this point and regardless, the best option is to continue on the path and not panic, but also not be stupid.
*"Importantly — and I cannot stress this enough — even if some of the core assumptions I’m making, like the fraction of severe cases or the number of current cases, are off even by several-fold, it changes the overall timeline only by days or weeks.
*
Unwarranted panic does no one any good, but neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s inappropriate to assuage the public with misleading comparisons to the seasonal flu or by assuring people that there’s “only” a 2% fatality rate. The fraction of cases that are severe really sets Covid-19 apart from more familiar respiratory illnesses, compounded by the fact that it’s whipping through a population without natural immune protection at lightning speed."
It’s also not that cold to use the stock market as a gauge - many smart people and top math talent gravitated towards investment banks and hedge funds in the last 15 years- their job is to make predictions and they would not be there if they were not good at it. Tomorrow is going to be interesting...
Hope so, I was buying some of the dips - missed the huge one though because I ‘got-a-scared’ - should have stuck with my strategy...now I’m buying on the way up with hopefully no more crazy dips in the near future. I also think POTUS may get his payroll tax passed, some older people will die which will incur a good amount of wealth transfers to kids who will invest or spend it, and the homeless population may thin given their outdoor exposure, general health, drug use etc...not being insensitive, just looking at the facts - much of this could be a strong boost.
I think fed will cut rates to 0. The payroll tax would ensure the stability of the economy and that’s bad for Dems - so yeah, unlikely to pass. The don’t want a massive outbreak either, but ideally a recession would do them good...
SHUT THE FUCK UP
CHINA HAS 1.4 B PEOPLE AND 80,000 CASES
Okay triple the numbers, still not million, how about 10x, still not a million. China has higher smoking rates, worse air pollution, worse hygiene (except Democrat run shit holes) and worse healthcare.
And one collapsed hotel turned in to a morgue... uh... hospital...
Lol, why are the fear-mongers so eager to ignore the data we've seen from China, South Korea and Japan, all of whom have blunted the spread of the virus in their country.
Stop with the absurd predictions.
Can’t agree more with this. While I don’t trust China’s info, I do trust SK - further, SK had a quick response and available mobile testing which means their data on fatalities, i.e., diagnosed/dead is likely the most accurate and the worst case scenario - worse than the flu, but it’s the plague. We should be cautions and seek to flatten the spread and run on resources/hospitals. If we’re careful and reasonable, we can avoid chaos - yes, people will die but TP won’t help.
Fear mongering nonsense
Any time a communucations / journalism / (insert victim here ) studies major start explaining math, I get very suspicious, they were the party degree people who laughed at stem students for studying it in the first place
Viral infections such as these don’t follow an exponential hockey stick projection due to the weakening of the virus as it spreads coupled with recovery rates. The inversion point is what is most important and attempting to minimize the height of the curve is what is has been taking place .
We will still see many infected and thousands dead, but I promise it won’t expand as projected by math which doesn’t parallel the reality of biology.
Best predictor is past performance. SK data is pretty good and can be trusted and is the worst case for a country like the US where our response was not quite as fast, but we had advanced warning. Trying to ‘science’ or ‘math’ it too much is pointless, we have the best data we can get at this point and regardless, the best option is to continue on the path and not panic, but also not be stupid.
and so far there's a less than 1% mortality in the US, far less for people under 75.
I'd expect 100-200 million to be infected before it's over, and less than 100,000 fatalities for people under 75
I’m looking for the basis for this comment.
You’re going to have to explain to me what it is that has your panties entangled within your crack.
He's saying that most of these liberal arts fear mongers can't add, much less multiply or divide, and they are generally full of shit.
*"Importantly — and I cannot stress this enough — even if some of the core assumptions I’m making, like the fraction of severe cases or the number of current cases, are off even by several-fold, it changes the overall timeline only by days or weeks. *
Unwarranted panic does no one any good, but neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s inappropriate to assuage the public with misleading comparisons to the seasonal flu or by assuring people that there’s “only” a 2% fatality rate. The fraction of cases that are severe really sets Covid-19 apart from more familiar respiratory illnesses, compounded by the fact that it’s whipping through a population without natural immune protection at lightning speed."
It’s also not that cold to use the stock market as a gauge - many smart people and top math talent gravitated towards investment banks and hedge funds in the last 15 years- their job is to make predictions and they would not be there if they were not good at it. Tomorrow is going to be interesting...
If past issues like this are an indicator, we will see a massive rebound over the next two months.
Considering the 2300 point swing on Friday and extended trading period, I suspect we will see a morning drop followed by a 1000 point gain.
As an example, under bush the market toppled due to the sars outbreak, but fully recovered by June.
Hope so, I was buying some of the dips - missed the huge one though because I ‘got-a-scared’ - should have stuck with my strategy...now I’m buying on the way up with hopefully no more crazy dips in the near future. I also think POTUS may get his payroll tax passed, some older people will die which will incur a good amount of wealth transfers to kids who will invest or spend it, and the homeless population may thin given their outdoor exposure, general health, drug use etc...not being insensitive, just looking at the facts - much of this could be a strong boost.
The payroll tax cut has a snowball’s chance in hell of passing.
I think fed will cut rates to 0. The payroll tax would ensure the stability of the economy and that’s bad for Dems - so yeah, unlikely to pass. The don’t want a massive outbreak either, but ideally a recession would do them good...
And it’s 0...nowhere to go now. So payroll tax cut maybe.