I'm tracking Italy to see if they can get to a topping out point; they are definitely a worst case scenario so it will be good to see them get on top of it. Their death rate is absolutely horrific (7-8% of cases) compared to other places (Korea is less than 1%) I definitely expect the US rate to get under 1% as well as we ramp up the testing.
This is where I'm torn. Earlier this week I was offering an O/U bet of US total deaths of 100 (I had no takers of course.) I think we'll definitely exceed that but by the same token, I think we will remain very low in deaths in large part because of the drastic actions being taken.
I'm tracking Italy to see if they can get to a topping out point; they are definitely a worst case scenario so it will be good to see them get on top of it. Their death rate is absolutely horrific (7-8% of cases) compared to other places (Korea is less than 1%) I definitely expect the US rate to get under 1% as well as we ramp up the testing.
This is where I'm torn. Earlier this week I was offering an O/U bet of US total deaths of 100 (I had no takers of course.) I think we'll definitely exceed that but by the same token, I think we will remain very low in deaths in large part because of the drastic actions being taken.
I heard that Lombardy region had no new cases today, not sure that is true. I expect Italy to peak soon.
Edit: sorry, I had that wrong. 300 fewer new cases today.