it's 5 months in UK because they don't have the medical capacity to handle the expected admissions. Socialized medicine to the rescue! Oh wait, you're fucked.
They feel the same for the US. They have a model for it as well. They are actually saying you have to suppress until a vaccine is found, or cases just spike up.
5 months suppression then lifting it put the spike in cases in November right at the election.
This report isn't talking about stretching it out. It says a spike will happen when suppression ends. They recommend suppression until there is a vaccine.
Ok, but I'm in China and we've just ended suppression for the most part. Still have to wear a mask everywhere and can't go out at night, but we're back to about 70% normality.
And we don't have a spike here.
Now, I do believe a second wave will come through once everyone lets their guard down, but as for now, no second spike.
There isn't going to be a legit vaccine in 5 months, human trials last longer than that. You're looking at this time '21. Let's be honest.
So, then the reason they want 5 months is to stretch it out due to the pathetic number of ICU beds.
You'd think there would be a warehouse filled with surplus medical supplies, but I guess not. That's only in movies.
No, there are plenty of groups that respond well to corona. Protect the risk groups, and let the others build herd immunity by getting it and recovering would make sense. Otherwise you are just delaying the day you deal with it.
The Diamond Princess is another good experiment, showing that even among the elderly with 100% exposure, somewhere between 20% to 40% won't come down with it at all.
Retards on social media believe that everyone will be 100% compliant with self quarantine. They also believe that it's for two weeks, despite reports the incubation can be 28 days in duration. They also believe toilet paper is the #1 priority for preparation.
They just announced dentists here were advised to cancel non-essential procedures for the next 21 days. The governor here would not commit to 2 weeks or even a month. They are going to drag this out.
I have to hink that at this point many governments are testing the waters of how far they can enforce or push social controls using a bogeyman as justification. Regardless of the risk of coronavirus, it seems like it is a massive overreaction given what is publicly known.
They are slow walking the restrictions a little more day by day. First it was groups limited to 25, then 100, then 25, now 10. They are easing us into this to try and avoid a panic. That much is clear.
I agree its overblown for what it is. Its not sensible. If they banned anyone over 30 from bars and restaurants, maybe had those that went out get their hand painted with paint that would last 20 days and be told to stay away from risk groups, that might make sense to slowly build herd immunity. But what they are doing only pushes out the date to deal with it.
They are already talking about all remote/mail-in ballots for the primary. there is a good chance they will delay the virus until before the election, and force it for that as well. And fuckery abounds with that type of voting.
You're going to need a chaperone! 5 feet is WAY too close, Mr Handsy! "Social distancing" means not within 6 feet. Her outfit also violates the dress code. - the kind of control the uniparty has wet dreams over.
It is kinda nice there being no traffic though. Anyone else noticing that?
This information is contrary to what was said in yesterday’s briefing by the president and his team.
The recommendations currently in place are for the next 2 weeks.
The presence of the disease, and hence some form of response, are potentially to be until July.
As people get the disease and recover, they are much less likely to get it again (although anecdotally there have been some that tested positive, negative, then positive again). As such they are unlikely to seed others and form a barrier against spread. We will also have more people continuing to work from home. We need to keep the prevalence of the disease at a manageable level.
The current restrictions are very strict and will be re-assessed every couple of weeks to strike a balance between restoring the economy and protecting our seniors and those with health conditions. This according to the president’s team yesterday.
Then they are going to have to decide when they are prepared enough, have enough beds available, and pull the plug on the shelter in place orders. Because the experts are saying that by slowing the spread you are only pushing off the time it spikes. Everyone sheltering in place makes the spike worse when you pull the plug vs limited contact, kids still in schools
I'm not fear mongering. This is what it is. The UK guidance says what they recommend. The info I'm getting from all my sources is telling me this is not going to go away quickly. My state has almost a shelter in place, that isn't going to flatten the curve, it just pushes it down the road.
I like Trump counting down the days, but will the governors go along? Dentists have canceled appointments for 21 days here.
I think the fear mongering is overblown, its a bad flu, but be ready for a longer stay.
They also think its 18 months before a vaccine is out
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)
I hope so, Most dis concerning is the report shows if they quarantine for 5 months, then end it, the spike in cases comes right at the November elections. I hope that 5 months was arbitrarily and not selected for that reason.
it's 5 months in UK because they don't have the medical capacity to handle the expected admissions. Socialized medicine to the rescue! Oh wait, you're fucked.
They feel the same for the US. They have a model for it as well. They are actually saying you have to suppress until a vaccine is found, or cases just spike up. 5 months suppression then lifting it put the spike in cases in November right at the election.
Here is a pic of the US chart- https://imgur.com/ugI9Xsy
US has more (115k ICU beds) to UKs (I just heard on BBC 5k beds), holy shit.
You guys are fucked.
But yes, we need to stretch it out.
This report isn't talking about stretching it out. It says a spike will happen when suppression ends. They recommend suppression until there is a vaccine.
Ok, but I'm in China and we've just ended suppression for the most part. Still have to wear a mask everywhere and can't go out at night, but we're back to about 70% normality.
And we don't have a spike here.
Now, I do believe a second wave will come through once everyone lets their guard down, but as for now, no second spike.
There isn't going to be a legit vaccine in 5 months, human trials last longer than that. You're looking at this time '21. Let's be honest.
So, then the reason they want 5 months is to stretch it out due to the pathetic number of ICU beds.
You'd think there would be a warehouse filled with surplus medical supplies, but I guess not. That's only in movies.
All the best.
You did have a spike, you ripped the bandaid off and had 17 hospitals for it, now its over.
I meant second spike after the initial. I thought that was clear.
Sorry to confuse.
No, there are plenty of groups that respond well to corona. Protect the risk groups, and let the others build herd immunity by getting it and recovering would make sense. Otherwise you are just delaying the day you deal with it.
The Diamond Princess is another good experiment, showing that even among the elderly with 100% exposure, somewhere between 20% to 40% won't come down with it at all.
I also have to question the reliability of the african reporting infrastructure as well.
What better way to wreck the economy which the Dems would love
Yeah, no. Where I'm from the summer lasts about 2 weeks and I ain't gonna miss it.
They have to span two quarters to officially call it a recession.
Retards on social media believe that everyone will be 100% compliant with self quarantine. They also believe that it's for two weeks, despite reports the incubation can be 28 days in duration. They also believe toilet paper is the #1 priority for preparation.
Stupid fucks.
They just announced dentists here were advised to cancel non-essential procedures for the next 21 days. The governor here would not commit to 2 weeks or even a month. They are going to drag this out.
Bought a box of Twinkies.
Should have bought 20 boxes?
I have to hink that at this point many governments are testing the waters of how far they can enforce or push social controls using a bogeyman as justification. Regardless of the risk of coronavirus, it seems like it is a massive overreaction given what is publicly known.
They are slow walking the restrictions a little more day by day. First it was groups limited to 25, then 100, then 25, now 10. They are easing us into this to try and avoid a panic. That much is clear.
I agree its overblown for what it is. Its not sensible. If they banned anyone over 30 from bars and restaurants, maybe had those that went out get their hand painted with paint that would last 20 days and be told to stay away from risk groups, that might make sense to slowly build herd immunity. But what they are doing only pushes out the date to deal with it.
We are literal frogs in nearly boiling water at this point.
They are already talking about all remote/mail-in ballots for the primary. there is a good chance they will delay the virus until before the election, and force it for that as well. And fuckery abounds with that type of voting.
Not the United States.
Yes according to the report.
Here is a pic of the US chart- https://imgur.com/ugI9Xsy
Going outside isn't restricted if you're not being sociable. Hiking in the woods etc with lots of space.
With a hiking partner that remains 5 feet ahead (or behind) you.
You're going to need a chaperone! 5 feet is WAY too close, Mr Handsy! "Social distancing" means not within 6 feet. Her outfit also violates the dress code. - the kind of control the uniparty has wet dreams over.
It is kinda nice there being no traffic though. Anyone else noticing that?
This information is contrary to what was said in yesterday’s briefing by the president and his team.
The recommendations currently in place are for the next 2 weeks.
The presence of the disease, and hence some form of response, are potentially to be until July.
As people get the disease and recover, they are much less likely to get it again (although anecdotally there have been some that tested positive, negative, then positive again). As such they are unlikely to seed others and form a barrier against spread. We will also have more people continuing to work from home. We need to keep the prevalence of the disease at a manageable level.
The current restrictions are very strict and will be re-assessed every couple of weeks to strike a balance between restoring the economy and protecting our seniors and those with health conditions. This according to the president’s team yesterday.
Then they are going to have to decide when they are prepared enough, have enough beds available, and pull the plug on the shelter in place orders. Because the experts are saying that by slowing the spread you are only pushing off the time it spikes. Everyone sheltering in place makes the spike worse when you pull the plug vs limited contact, kids still in schools
The weather (temp and humidity) also has a bearing, though they're still trying to find out in what ways.
You seem to be fear mongering.
I'm not fear mongering. This is what it is. The UK guidance says what they recommend. The info I'm getting from all my sources is telling me this is not going to go away quickly. My state has almost a shelter in place, that isn't going to flatten the curve, it just pushes it down the road. I like Trump counting down the days, but will the governors go along? Dentists have canceled appointments for 21 days here. I think the fear mongering is overblown, its a bad flu, but be ready for a longer stay.
The report on mitigation vs suppression -> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
They also think its 18 months before a vaccine is out
I can see maybe 2 weeks...after that people will have enough and the politicians will bend the knee
I hope so, Most dis concerning is the report shows if they quarantine for 5 months, then end it, the spike in cases comes right at the November elections. I hope that 5 months was arbitrarily and not selected for that reason.