The analyst chose ten deaths as the statistically significant threshold, and plotted the trend of each country over time. It started in China, so their data goes furthest to the right. Note the scale for number of deaths goes semi-logarithmic at 500.
Note the large divergence between the next three countries with 20 days of data after the first death: South Korea flattening while Iran and Italy do not.
Things looking bad for Spain if the trend continues.
As for us in the US, that little blip of one data point at the end makes it difficult to draw a conclusion. The trend before that was more in line with South Korea, which is a really good thing. We will have to see where the curve goes over the next few days.
I predict the U.S. will end up with under 500 deaths total.
I hate to sound goulish or dismissive about those deaths of real live Americans, but this is very much a numbers game. The whole reason we are all staying home is to win that numbers game and save the most lives possible. I think we are going to be okay. (Obviously except for those who do die from it and that impact on their families.)
Spez: I think the trendlines show the effectiveness of each country's medical system in treating the virus symptoms. The US has by far the best medical system and the highest proportion of critical care beds to people. We are going to kick this thing's butt.
I have never wanted a person to be more right about anything in my entire life than I do right now regarding your comment.
I was wrong.
I posted on day 15 on this chart and I noted there was one data point at the end that made it difficult to know the trend, and that it would take a few more days to see where the curve goes. I have been watching it daily.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Our trend line is right along the "deaths double every three days" line. We need to see this bend down! The UK for example is now flattening out. If the new drug treatments kick in this line will flatten soon. I will be checking it every day.
Keep in mind these are total numbers of deaths, not corrected for population, so that would explain somewhat a different trend in a large country like ours. Our actual death rate is relatively low.
(Obviously, don't bother comparing to the China numbers as there is no reason to trust them.)
The analyst chose ten deaths as the statistically significant threshold, and plotted the trend of each country over time. It started in China, so their data goes furthest to the right. Note the scale for number of deaths goes semi-logarithmic at 500.
Note the large divergence between the next three countries with 20 days of data after the first death: South Korea flattening while Iran and Italy do not.
Things looking bad for Spain if the trend continues.
As for us in the US, that little blip of one data point at the end makes it difficult to draw a conclusion. The trend before that was more in line with South Korea, which is a really good thing. We will have to see where the curve goes over the next few days.
I predict the U.S. will end up with under 500 deaths total.
I hate to sound goulish or dismissive about those deaths of real live Americans, but this is very much a numbers game. The whole reason we are all staying home is to win that numbers game and save the most lives possible. I think we are going to be okay. (Obviously except for those who do die from it and that impact on their families.)
Spez: I think the trendlines show the effectiveness of each country's medical system in treating the virus symptoms. The US has by far the best medical system and the highest proportion of critical care beds to people. We are going to kick this thing's butt.
I have never wanted a person to be more right about anything in my entire life than I do right now regarding your comment.
I was wrong.
I posted on day 15 on this chart and I noted there was one data point at the end that made it difficult to know the trend, and that it would take a few more days to see where the curve goes. I have been watching it daily. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Our trend line is right along the "deaths double every three days" line. We need to see this bend down! The UK for example is now flattening out. If the new drug treatments kick in this line will flatten soon. I will be checking it every day.
Keep in mind these are total numbers of deaths, not corrected for population, so that would explain somewhat a different trend in a large country like ours. Our actual death rate is relatively low.
(Obviously, don't bother comparing to the China numbers as there is no reason to trust them.)