First of all, I live in Bucks county, Northeast of Philly, on the New Jersey border. I’m seeing these trends on the ground:

1. People are fleeing New Jersey in record numbers, many of whom are moving to Philly burbs. The Trump changes to the tax code in 2017 highly disincentivize living in areas with high home prices and high local and state taxes. All of which Jersey has some of the highest in the country. Middle middle to upper middle suburban families are especially vulnerable to this and this demographic is substantially more likely to vote GOP than others. So if you have an influx of GOP voters fleeing from a solidly blue state to a swing state like PA this is a huge deal. It gets PA over the edge to go red again.

2. Philly suburbs have some of the biggest influxes of Russian immigrants in the country. Guess what the Muh Russia shit show did to newly naturalized Russian immigrants who weren’t sure who to vote for? Yeah, vote for the party that doesn’t vilify your people or home country. The clearest evidence I’ve seen for this is the special PA house election that was held in Bensalem, PA where there has been a surge in Russian immigrants since 2016. In 2016 this area voted +9 for Hillary and the expectation was that it was likely the Democrat candidate for the special PA House election would win, especially with the impact of Coronavirus on popular opinion. He didn’t. We’ll see what 2020 shows but I have the gut feeling that the changing demographics of Bucks county and surrounding suburbs to Eastern European and Russian Americans will be a boon for the GOP and our POTUS.