Important trend to see where we are going: Chinese Virus death rates by country
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I don’t think deaths is the metric that tells us how things are progressing. Different countries are seeing different rates of death and Italy looks really bad when you view it that way. The metric that I’ve been watching is the rate of change in cases per million in order to get an idea of how impacted a region is as well as whether or not they are beginning to see containment. Using those metrics Italy is in really bad shape compared to other places (at over 700 cases per million). But look out folks because NY state is over 500 cases per million and climbing. WA state appears to be “contained” to me at about 170 cases per million. Just my layperson analysis.
Adding to this. One week ago I think Italy was at about 300, WA was about 60, and NY was 8. This next week could get pretty wild for NY.
Please keep in mind that I may have screwed up the numbers (I’m on my phone), but I think those are the metrics to watch in order to determine how “under control” places are.
Total number of deaths doesn’t really tell the story. The US has 20k cases with 250 deaths and Italy has 40k cases with 4k deaths. You can ignore infections if you want but total population needs to be brought into the equation to see how bad things are relative to one another.
But isn't the deaths the part that matters? This is the trend line and it will show when the deaths stop increasing as fast. That seems to matter.
Why do we care the exact number of people that get it if people are not dying from it?
You can ignore infections if you want but there’s a lot more data there to give you a better idea of how contained the virus is. Whatever you look at, you need to factor in the population to get an idea of how bad it is. For example in the US there are currently less than 1 deaths per million people in the country. In Italy it is currently 67 deaths per million people. So you could say that Italy is 67 times worse (rather than 20x). Let’s pretend China’s number is real. That would be roughly 3 deaths per million. So you could say that China is 3x worse than here but still 20x better than Italy (even though total deaths is roughly the same). Total deaths may correlate with total population but doesn’t show the severity for that population.
And because it's spreading. You seem to not want to mention that fact.