Now our country has been turned upside down for nearly two weeks now. Our economy in shambles all for a virus that Germany is reporting a .3% death rate for... what a fucking joke. We need to push back hard. I'm especially sick of cucks like posobiec who bought the hype hook line and sinker and claiming that this virus was way more lethal than the flu but so far there is zero evidence of that.
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Hey idiot, the death rate isn't anywhere near 3% so stop spreading false information.
The death rate is derived from closed cases with outcomes, not just the total of number of deaths against current and closed cases. Cases need an outcome to determine the correct death rate. That death rate is currently 12% on average across the world. Germany is actually reporting a 26% death rate of closed cases, USA is currently 66%, Italy 44%, Spain 45%, Iran 18%. France is 26%,. South Korea is 3%. Switzerland is 38%, UK is 72%.
South Korea has done the most testing, but the second highest is Germany. The more tests with positive results that become closed cases give us more accurate figures over time. Death rates as a percentage will spike at the start as people with pre-existing conditions die off.
It's not a 0.3% death rate. It's not 66%. It's currently 12%. That number is likely to stay the same for a while, but rise once saturation of ventilator use and available hospital beds become zero. That is what has happened in Italy.
The media is hyping this a bit more as the media does in a crisis, but with the current figures of about 10% growth in numbers per day and a minimum of 2 months until peak infection, at 100,000,000 worldwide will be infected and 12,000,000 will die. If it goes to 3 months at a 10% growth per day that figure will be 2,000,000,000 and the death toll 240,000,000. That's based in a 25 % global infection rate peak. You'll have deaths trail as the peak comes down.
At an extremely conservative estimate of 3%, 3,600,000 to 72,000,000 dead....if it is 0.3% like you said, 360,000 to 7,200,000.
I hope that helps shed some light on what the ranges are based on 2 and 3 months to peak infection. God help us all should it go any longer than that at the current rate of growth.
....and can both of you ease do not call each other idiots please. We are the worldwide Trump supporter family. Be good to each other Pedes.
This is a well-written, well-researched post and thank you for that last sentence. Are some of these numbers based on computer models? Specifically, worst-case, do-nothing-at-all computer models?
Farr’s Law.
Farr's law is a bell curve. We haven't seen a decline yet. If you look at logarithmic and ljnear scaling, we are still very much on the increase. Logarithmic scale looks like the start of the head of a head and shoulders pattern, linear is just crazy almost vertical increase.
That’s fairly misleading though. We are right in the middle of the crisis, so we don’t know the outcome of the majority of these cases. So far, the recovery rate is high for young people in good health.
When we look back on this after millions of cases have occurred and come to a resolution, the mortality rate will be nowhere near 12%.
This is very misleading. When we calculate death rate with the flu we include cases that are not known - aka people sick with the flu that never go to the doctor's office.
If we look at known death rates with the flu - people who are tested for it - the death rate is 10% or so. So stop pretending this is so much more deadly then the flu. It is not. We will see deaths in the flu range - 30-60k - not 2 to 3 million..
If it's not so serious why is China lying about it? Why are countries throwing money at stimulus? Why have open border countries gone into lockdown ? Why are banks giving mortgage and loan holidays of 6 months?
They don't do any of this every year during flu season.