My coworker died recently* (just got update this evening) from corona virus. He was 70, great guy, worked with him for the past 10 years. I feel terrible for his family, his kids and grandkids. RIP. They closed our office 1.5 weeks ago after he tested positive for corona virus. I saw him his last day there and chatted a few mins while we got coffee. Crazy shit man.
LOL, thanks for saying what a lot of us are also thinking! I like positive music and jokes and etc but the time for un-funny shilling about how this is just a flu, yeah, I agree with you. 100%!
Yeah, I know! Like he'd put the economy on hold for no reason at all. Or, doesn't understand how to read people and got stuck with Dr, Fuschi (sp?) by accident or something! There are doctors and nurses risking their lives to stop the spread of this thing and people going out anyways because they can't personally see it right in front of them invalidate their sacrifice! (hello? the sick people are in the hospital, that's why you don't see them!) Were on the West coast near WA where it broke first and my whole family is staying inside. Makes me irate that these young (... and old!) folks are out there spreading the flu because the incubation period is two weeks and they "don't feel sick"! So, I'm 100% behind you here, HT!
If things are good on April 12 that will be great. You should understand though taht he is doing a balancing act right now. He has to thread the needle through both managing economic panic, and managing a health crisis. He will say things to thread the needle along, to get us through this...and that's okay (with me) because it has to be done. But I will be shocked if there is a real opening of the economy by April 12. Don't get me wrong.... it would be great.... but likewise, there's NO WAY it will happen if we don't take this threat seriously. You wanna see things open back up? Take it seriously and be a player for POTUS not for your own bullshit.
of course. fuck the dems. but the virus is real shit. There's no way POTUS would cuck out over nothing really being wrong. i'm not saying he's cucking right now.... but if he did what he's doing now, and nothing really wrong... he would be. I'm sure he isn't though...it's late and i'm rambling. gonna go watch Mitch and his 1am speech in the senate.
Some say the economy will always come back. Saw a good post on [the site that shall remain unnamed] yesterday about "Hammer and Dance"? You see that one? Interesting stuff even if it was mostly over my head. Idea is that you first bring the "hammer" down on the virus' spread by enforcing strict quarantine measures. Then, let people out who are lowest at risk and the "dance" begins where you are now managing the sickness levels. Without an overburdened medical industry because everyone has supplies and is prepped thoroughly. "Hammer and Dance", check it out!
Was wondering, the other day at Trump's news conference, what the heck he was talking about when he brought up automobile accidents and suicide numbers! Got on 4chan (and other sites) and saw different theories in regards to how epidemiologists handle pandemics. Many of them are only concerned with the health of people strictly in terms of dying from a particular pathogen. Not other factors like employment, etc. They don't study the larger picture in terms of economy and how being out of a job or more living in a delapidated, collapsed society (if everyone was forced to stay inside the full 18 months!) would also cause deaths.
It's a balancing act and nobody knows the exact answer. UK is trying one thing. China brought the hammer down big time because they could. Because they're a totalitarian oligarchy. But, remember, they also needed population control anyways, regardless of exactly how or who released this thing. China got rid of a lot of older and poorer people who were a burden on their system. I said that... sheeet... @ the beginning of January. Anyways...
Was skeptical of "go back to work!" and think it's still too early but see both sides now. Strictly locking everyone down may limit spread initially but it'll still be floating around out there, in other countries. And waiting as soon as you emerge! So, you'll get it eventually one way or the other. Overwhelming the hospitals will cause more deaths, unrelated to CVD19, from doctors not being available for routine stuff. Etc etc.also just sheltering in place for a month, waiting for them to figure out the best cure with least amount of risk or long term side effects? Sounds good to me.
Too Long? ~~~> it's a balancing act between health, right now!, from virus!... and long - term health if you destroy your overall way of life and end up in a totalitarian state with high unemployment, etc. I'm still leaning towards 'health, rn', but thankfully it's in the hands of Trump... who is listening to people that have studied this exact scenario for years on end.
It will be in a short period of time. We have the combination of medications that have tested well. Trump said he will start it back up again after he has assessed the situation and he gives it the good to go. I suspect he will. We can't do this to people. Keep the the major at risk people at home for longer.
by the way, i'm in the middle of the country and know 2 people who have it.... confirmed, not suspected. Jfc.... I pray it doesn't get as bad as it could, but if it does some of you all are gonna be eating yoru words.
And the people drinking the kool-aid that this the fucking zombie apocalypse need to hike their up their skirts and look at reality. Harmful virus? Yes. Highly contagious? Yes. We need to hide because some Democrats and CNN say we’re sure to die if we buy guns or leave our homes? Fuck off.
It needs to he taken seriously. There is no question. But who can believe any of the bullshit the media puts out there anymore? They have an agenda to hurt this President. Certain people in department's have an agenda to hurt this President.
Then you have people on here saying this is "THE END OF DAYS" and "THE END OF INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETY" and a "repeat of the Spanish flu" (like you can compare 1918 conditions to now). Those are the people who need to FUCK OFF.
exponential growth rate of infections and deaths, long incubation period where people think nothing is wrong (that's where we are now, on the whole, as a nation), highly contagious
Ok. It is absolutely very infectious, no argument there. The deaths and the death rate are not quite as cut and dry. First, different countries classify conditions and cause of death in different ways. A great example of this is the difference between how Germany and Italy represent death counts. In Italy, if a 85 year old man is in the hospital with multiple organ failure already near death and he happens to catch Covid19 hours before his death, his death is ruled as a fatality due to Covid19. Germany on the other hand only rules the death due to Covid19 if it was the direct cause of death. This is one of many reasons for the difference in death totals between the two countries. As confirmation of this, Italy has come out and said “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus.” So with Italy's official death count being ~6800 that means the actual number of people that have died because of covid19 numbers roughly 820, according to their National Institute of Health. With their current confirmed positive case total being 69,000, that puts the death rate against confirmed cases at 1.1%
Next, the 1.1% death rate is being measured against cases that were confirmed with a positive test. The people that we test tend to be the most serious cases. Both of these conditions will artificially increase the mortality rate. In order to measure the mortality rate we need some idea of total number of cases. Right now there are 294k confirmed positives with 13,000 (4%) in serious condition worldwide. That means 96% of the people who test positive have mild or no symptoms at all. What does that compute to across the worldwide population of people who have mild or no symptoms but don't get tested? It's entirely likely there are many 10s of millions of cases worldwide at the moment which means the true rate of serious complication of death is significantly lower than 1.1%.
Here's is a critical scenario that I don't hear people talking about. All of their projections and emergency plans hinge on the projections of incomplete modelling and one thing blows the entire thing up. If they are wrong about the length of time this virus has been in the country and what they think is day 30 is actually day 60 or day 90, the entire picture changes. Especially with how this virus presents as ARDS, it could have gone unnoticed for quite a while. I think my family contracted this right after Christmas as we all got smashed with a 3 week illness with the exact symptoms currently seen. If this is true that means there have probably been millions of infections over the last couple months in this country. The apparent prevalence of mild or asymptomatic cases only increases the possibility that it's been here a long time and the true numbers of infected are much higher. This also would mean the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than currently assumed on top of the variables just discussed.
Along with hydroxychloroquine and the zpak we will also be able to start doing plasma transfusions soon from recovered patients giving the most gravely ill active antibodies to immediately begin fighting the virus. There are multiple things in the pipeline that we're going to start assaulting the virus with.
So the current official global death count is roughly 19,000 and due to reasons already discussed, we know that number to be inaccurate if you want to know the number of people that died directly due to Covid19. Last year the common flu killed 600,000 people worldwide. When looking at the current data and attempting to account for variables currently ignored I don't think Covid19 will get to 600,000 before being mostly eradicated.
If you listen to the media/Democrat complex, though, when will we be safe? They’re throwing out 3, 5, 7,, 14 day incubation periods, and since the first case was reported, it’s been the calm before the storm. I hope I’m right and that this passes, but it’s a perfect weapon for these tools - you can’t see it, you might have it and not know, and the threat never ends. If they made up a crisis to help the power grab, they couldn’t do a better job (I’m NOT saying it’s made up).
Yes we have to balance the fight against these terrible people who obviously want to use a health crisis to push their horrible agenda (more like push killing America). POTUS is threading the needle. He's done a good job and will continue to. I'm sure of that. I just lose patience with people who come here acting like the wuflu isn't really serious because it is, very much so.
Well, I hope there’s a combination of overreach, overreaction, and a great job by POTUS on the actual issue, and this panic and destruction of American life can pass fairly quickly.
Be reasonable - if someone thinks it’s just the flu, can you blame them? Media saying HALF of all Americans will die (then retracting), doing their damnedest to discredit any potential treatment, and virtue signaling over what to call it; politicians banning people from normal behavior and destroying jobs, then loading relief bills with a progressive wishlist. If they’re not taking it seriously, why should anyone else? I’m not even an “it’s just the flu” person, but it’s not the apocalyptic event they seem to want it to be, and I can’t blame people who see that. You may disagree with them, but they’re not fucking idiots.
My coworker died recently* (just got update this evening) from corona virus. He was 70, great guy, worked with him for the past 10 years. I feel terrible for his family, his kids and grandkids. RIP. They closed our office 1.5 weeks ago after he tested positive for corona virus. I saw him his last day there and chatted a few mins while we got coffee. Crazy shit man.
Daaaaaamn.
LOL, thanks for saying what a lot of us are also thinking! I like positive music and jokes and etc but the time for un-funny shilling about how this is just a flu, yeah, I agree with you. 100%!
really sick of the edge lords who think POTUS would go along with all this shit for "just the flu"... get a clue.
Yeah, I know! Like he'd put the economy on hold for no reason at all. Or, doesn't understand how to read people and got stuck with Dr, Fuschi (sp?) by accident or something! There are doctors and nurses risking their lives to stop the spread of this thing and people going out anyways because they can't personally see it right in front of them invalidate their sacrifice! (hello? the sick people are in the hospital, that's why you don't see them!) Were on the West coast near WA where it broke first and my whole family is staying inside. Makes me irate that these young (... and old!) folks are out there spreading the flu because the incubation period is two weeks and they "don't feel sick"! So, I'm 100% behind you here, HT!
Edited for spelling and to make more sense.
fucking idiots. sadly, i think they will be forced before too long to see how wrong their thinking is right now.
If things are good on April 12 that will be great. You should understand though taht he is doing a balancing act right now. He has to thread the needle through both managing economic panic, and managing a health crisis. He will say things to thread the needle along, to get us through this...and that's okay (with me) because it has to be done. But I will be shocked if there is a real opening of the economy by April 12. Don't get me wrong.... it would be great.... but likewise, there's NO WAY it will happen if we don't take this threat seriously. You wanna see things open back up? Take it seriously and be a player for POTUS not for your own bullshit.
of course. fuck the dems. but the virus is real shit. There's no way POTUS would cuck out over nothing really being wrong. i'm not saying he's cucking right now.... but if he did what he's doing now, and nothing really wrong... he would be. I'm sure he isn't though...it's late and i'm rambling. gonna go watch Mitch and his 1am speech in the senate.
Don't you know this is the happening and in a few days the deep state will all have been rounded up? /s
kek
I blame the fluoride in the water.
The economy comes back when Trump says it does. Fuck the virus.
Some say the economy will always come back. Saw a good post on [the site that shall remain unnamed] yesterday about "Hammer and Dance"? You see that one? Interesting stuff even if it was mostly over my head. Idea is that you first bring the "hammer" down on the virus' spread by enforcing strict quarantine measures. Then, let people out who are lowest at risk and the "dance" begins where you are now managing the sickness levels. Without an overburdened medical industry because everyone has supplies and is prepped thoroughly. "Hammer and Dance", check it out!
Was wondering, the other day at Trump's news conference, what the heck he was talking about when he brought up automobile accidents and suicide numbers! Got on 4chan (and other sites) and saw different theories in regards to how epidemiologists handle pandemics. Many of them are only concerned with the health of people strictly in terms of dying from a particular pathogen. Not other factors like employment, etc. They don't study the larger picture in terms of economy and how being out of a job or more living in a delapidated, collapsed society (if everyone was forced to stay inside the full 18 months!) would also cause deaths.
It's a balancing act and nobody knows the exact answer. UK is trying one thing. China brought the hammer down big time because they could. Because they're a totalitarian oligarchy. But, remember, they also needed population control anyways, regardless of exactly how or who released this thing. China got rid of a lot of older and poorer people who were a burden on their system. I said that... sheeet... @ the beginning of January. Anyways...
Was skeptical of "go back to work!" and think it's still too early but see both sides now. Strictly locking everyone down may limit spread initially but it'll still be floating around out there, in other countries. And waiting as soon as you emerge! So, you'll get it eventually one way or the other. Overwhelming the hospitals will cause more deaths, unrelated to CVD19, from doctors not being available for routine stuff. Etc etc.also just sheltering in place for a month, waiting for them to figure out the best cure with least amount of risk or long term side effects? Sounds good to me.
Too Long? ~~~> it's a balancing act between health, right now!, from virus!... and long - term health if you destroy your overall way of life and end up in a totalitarian state with high unemployment, etc. I'm still leaning towards 'health, rn', but thankfully it's in the hands of Trump... who is listening to people that have studied this exact scenario for years on end.
Unfortunately that isn't the case.
It will be in a short period of time. We have the combination of medications that have tested well. Trump said he will start it back up again after he has assessed the situation and he gives it the good to go. I suspect he will. We can't do this to people. Keep the the major at risk people at home for longer.
by the way, i'm in the middle of the country and know 2 people who have it.... confirmed, not suspected. Jfc.... I pray it doesn't get as bad as it could, but if it does some of you all are gonna be eating yoru words.
we'll see.
And the people drinking the kool-aid that this the fucking zombie apocalypse need to hike their up their skirts and look at reality. Harmful virus? Yes. Highly contagious? Yes. We need to hide because some Democrats and CNN say we’re sure to die if we buy guns or leave our homes? Fuck off.
THIS.
It needs to he taken seriously. There is no question. But who can believe any of the bullshit the media puts out there anymore? They have an agenda to hurt this President. Certain people in department's have an agenda to hurt this President.
Then you have people on here saying this is "THE END OF DAYS" and "THE END OF INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETY" and a "repeat of the Spanish flu" (like you can compare 1918 conditions to now). Those are the people who need to FUCK OFF.
Tell me what you think is the scariest thing about this virus.
My at risk parents dying, that is my biggest fear.
exponential growth rate of infections and deaths, long incubation period where people think nothing is wrong (that's where we are now, on the whole, as a nation), highly contagious
Ok. It is absolutely very infectious, no argument there. The deaths and the death rate are not quite as cut and dry. First, different countries classify conditions and cause of death in different ways. A great example of this is the difference between how Germany and Italy represent death counts. In Italy, if a 85 year old man is in the hospital with multiple organ failure already near death and he happens to catch Covid19 hours before his death, his death is ruled as a fatality due to Covid19. Germany on the other hand only rules the death due to Covid19 if it was the direct cause of death. This is one of many reasons for the difference in death totals between the two countries. As confirmation of this, Italy has come out and said “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus.” So with Italy's official death count being ~6800 that means the actual number of people that have died because of covid19 numbers roughly 820, according to their National Institute of Health. With their current confirmed positive case total being 69,000, that puts the death rate against confirmed cases at 1.1%
Next, the 1.1% death rate is being measured against cases that were confirmed with a positive test. The people that we test tend to be the most serious cases. Both of these conditions will artificially increase the mortality rate. In order to measure the mortality rate we need some idea of total number of cases. Right now there are 294k confirmed positives with 13,000 (4%) in serious condition worldwide. That means 96% of the people who test positive have mild or no symptoms at all. What does that compute to across the worldwide population of people who have mild or no symptoms but don't get tested? It's entirely likely there are many 10s of millions of cases worldwide at the moment which means the true rate of serious complication of death is significantly lower than 1.1%.
Here's is a critical scenario that I don't hear people talking about. All of their projections and emergency plans hinge on the projections of incomplete modelling and one thing blows the entire thing up. If they are wrong about the length of time this virus has been in the country and what they think is day 30 is actually day 60 or day 90, the entire picture changes. Especially with how this virus presents as ARDS, it could have gone unnoticed for quite a while. I think my family contracted this right after Christmas as we all got smashed with a 3 week illness with the exact symptoms currently seen. If this is true that means there have probably been millions of infections over the last couple months in this country. The apparent prevalence of mild or asymptomatic cases only increases the possibility that it's been here a long time and the true numbers of infected are much higher. This also would mean the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than currently assumed on top of the variables just discussed.
Along with hydroxychloroquine and the zpak we will also be able to start doing plasma transfusions soon from recovered patients giving the most gravely ill active antibodies to immediately begin fighting the virus. There are multiple things in the pipeline that we're going to start assaulting the virus with.
So the current official global death count is roughly 19,000 and due to reasons already discussed, we know that number to be inaccurate if you want to know the number of people that died directly due to Covid19. Last year the common flu killed 600,000 people worldwide. When looking at the current data and attempting to account for variables currently ignored I don't think Covid19 will get to 600,000 before being mostly eradicated.
If you listen to the media/Democrat complex, though, when will we be safe? They’re throwing out 3, 5, 7,, 14 day incubation periods, and since the first case was reported, it’s been the calm before the storm. I hope I’m right and that this passes, but it’s a perfect weapon for these tools - you can’t see it, you might have it and not know, and the threat never ends. If they made up a crisis to help the power grab, they couldn’t do a better job (I’m NOT saying it’s made up).
Yes we have to balance the fight against these terrible people who obviously want to use a health crisis to push their horrible agenda (more like push killing America). POTUS is threading the needle. He's done a good job and will continue to. I'm sure of that. I just lose patience with people who come here acting like the wuflu isn't really serious because it is, very much so.
Well, I hope there’s a combination of overreach, overreaction, and a great job by POTUS on the actual issue, and this panic and destruction of American life can pass fairly quickly.
Be reasonable - if someone thinks it’s just the flu, can you blame them? Media saying HALF of all Americans will die (then retracting), doing their damnedest to discredit any potential treatment, and virtue signaling over what to call it; politicians banning people from normal behavior and destroying jobs, then loading relief bills with a progressive wishlist. If they’re not taking it seriously, why should anyone else? I’m not even an “it’s just the flu” person, but it’s not the apocalyptic event they seem to want it to be, and I can’t blame people who see that. You may disagree with them, but they’re not fucking idiots.