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posted ago by jgardner ago by jgardner +25 / -0

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/ has some numbers. Let's do some math!

The question is, "How many people who get infected die from Coronavirus, not from pre-morbid conditions?"

The article has, for Italy:

  • 63,927 confirmed coronavirus patients
  • 6,077 of which died
  • Only 12% died from coronavirus, without pre-morbidity.

I'm bringing in:

  • 80% who get infected but have little or no signs and never get tested.

So:

  • 63,927/(100% - 80%) = 319,635, the number of people who got infected. (80% show no or few signs, 20% get tested and become patients.)
  • 12% of 6,077 is 729.24 people who died without pre-morbidity due to coronavirus.
  • 729/319,635 = 0.00228% which I round up to 0.0023%

That is, if you get coronavirus, and if we ignore your age, you have a 1 in 435 chance of dying. If we take into account your age, then if you're under 70, it's highly unlikely you show symptoms or die. I have no idea how to break it down by age, but I am sure with enough time and data someone will do it.

Now, some caveats:

  • 80% is a rough guess. No one will know what this number is until we do random testing. Likely, it is much higher. If we used 90%, then the mortality rate is cut in half.
  • This is how the virus behaves in Italy. In the US, we have a different medical system and we weren't going around hugging Chinese.
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jgardner [S] 2 points ago +2 / -0

One addendum: With a near-100% cure rate with hydroxychloroquine, which they were NOT using in Italy, the death toll would've been much lower. Let's say it's 95% effective, 19/20 get cured. Then it would be 1/20th of what it is. The death toll would be 0.000115%, which is 1 in 8,695 chance of dying.