Yep. He went from predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK to 20,000, more than half of whom he now says would have died by the end of the year anyway because are so old/sick. He also claimed there would not be enough ICU beds- now says the hospitals will be fine. Also, just last week thought 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary- now says it will peak and subside within 2 to 3 weeks. This is the guy whose work the media has constantly cited- fueling panic.
Weird how I, not a professional epidemiologist but just a lowly data analyst with access to publicly available historical data, was able to predict essentially the exact same thing way back when the professional worst case scenario imaginers was still saying we were all going to die.
These regularly occurring novel virus outbreaks barely move the needle on all-cause mortality because the majority of deaths are "stolen" from other causes. When more people die of virus A, fewer people die of viruses B through Z.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't US death rate trajectory from COVID-19 Kung Flu still less that the H1N1 death trajectory? So far it looks like COVID-19 will kill less people than H1N1 (swine flu) of 2009-2010 here in the US. Am I wrong?
It all makes more sense when you remember that 50% of the population the media is broadcasting to is literally clinically retarded. Their message is not for people capable of critical thinking.
No the Imperial College report always predicted that if drastic “suppression measures” were taken like shutting down social gatherings and nonessential businesses, then the deaths would be limited to the thousands. https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?s=21
Most of the country has not taken anywhere near the level of "drastic measures" they suggested- face it, he dramatically overestimated the impact. Even he now admits it. To suggest otherwise is the worst kind of revisionist history. Also, they predicted, even if the most draconian measures were taken to slow the spread, all the ventilators would be in use. Not even close.
Mitigation measures were not enacted to the level they suggested
Most mitigation measures that have been enacted were done 2 to 3 weeks later than they suggested
Even if the government enacted the most draconian mitigation measures, at the time they were suggested, they predicted every ventilator would currently be in use- clearly that is not happening
He himself admits his underlying assumptions were incorrect
He was drastically wrong and it has little to do with the government response, which has been much slower than what he called for and not nearly as stringent. His estimates, which the media ran with, have put over 3 million Americans out of work. There needs to be accountability for all who pushed this madness. And that does not mean the China Virus is not a serious public health issue- but the only people the media had on tended to be those spreading panic. Scientists that said we were overreacting were not given equal time to make their case. That was wrong.
Someone needs to telling Joe Scarborough that Neil Ferguson updated his estimate. What a fucking TDS moron who has been pushing panic. He just tweeted this. These propagandists need to be shamed and held accountable.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1243189627923697665?s=20
Just one "expert" in a long line of "experts" to be absurdly wrong. The very same "elites" who have been making decisions all these years that exposed the world to this pandemic from their free trade agreements to their open borders.
Out of the loop here - whose forecast and what did they predict?
Neil Ferguson of Imperial college London. The article being referenced.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
Yep. He went from predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK to 20,000, more than half of whom he now says would have died by the end of the year anyway because are so old/sick. He also claimed there would not be enough ICU beds- now says the hospitals will be fine. Also, just last week thought 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary- now says it will peak and subside within 2 to 3 weeks. This is the guy whose work the media has constantly cited- fueling panic.
Weird how I, not a professional epidemiologist but just a lowly data analyst with access to publicly available historical data, was able to predict essentially the exact same thing way back when the professional worst case scenario imaginers was still saying we were all going to die.
These regularly occurring novel virus outbreaks barely move the needle on all-cause mortality because the majority of deaths are "stolen" from other causes. When more people die of virus A, fewer people die of viruses B through Z.
Okay this was one slight miscalculation but for real climate change gonna kill us all!!! (Unless you give government more money)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't US death rate trajectory from COVID-19 Kung Flu still less that the H1N1 death trajectory? So far it looks like COVID-19 will kill less people than H1N1 (swine flu) of 2009-2010 here in the US. Am I wrong?
You're not infected with the socialist mindvirus, is why.
It's really a case of doctors trying to do data analytics... poorly.
It all makes more sense when you remember that 50% of the population the media is broadcasting to is literally clinically retarded. Their message is not for people capable of critical thinking.
And has been wrong on his predictions since Trump was in office, and until late last year he owned up to being wrong.
And people wonder why no one trusts experts anymore.
Expert = someone who gets everything 100% wrong and whose predictions turn out to be the exact opposite of what actually happened
No the Imperial College report always predicted that if drastic “suppression measures” were taken like shutting down social gatherings and nonessential businesses, then the deaths would be limited to the thousands. https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?s=21
Most of the country has not taken anywhere near the level of "drastic measures" they suggested- face it, he dramatically overestimated the impact. Even he now admits it. To suggest otherwise is the worst kind of revisionist history. Also, they predicted, even if the most draconian measures were taken to slow the spread, all the ventilators would be in use. Not even close.
He was drastically wrong and it has little to do with the government response, which has been much slower than what he called for and not nearly as stringent. His estimates, which the media ran with, have put over 3 million Americans out of work. There needs to be accountability for all who pushed this madness. And that does not mean the China Virus is not a serious public health issue- but the only people the media had on tended to be those spreading panic. Scientists that said we were overreacting were not given equal time to make their case. That was wrong.
Someone needs to telling Joe Scarborough that Neil Ferguson updated his estimate. What a fucking TDS moron who has been pushing panic. He just tweeted this. These propagandists need to be shamed and held accountable. https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1243189627923697665?s=20
Fuck Joe & Joe (Biden and Intern Murderer)
Al franken the rapist has a comment to on there that says the president is crazy, and I'm not kidding, something dumb by Biden just a few lines above.
This is actually big news, like REALLY BIG news that will never see the light of day in the US. I so despise the MSM.
Thank you
Just one "expert" in a long line of "experts" to be absurdly wrong. The very same "elites" who have been making decisions all these years that exposed the world to this pandemic from their free trade agreements to their open borders.
I think it's part of a thread of 3 tweets, starting with this: https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1243160548423991296?s=20
Then click the "Show thread" link at the bottom of the tweet.
The WHO leader I believe.