Yep. He went from predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK to 20,000, more than half of whom he now says would have died by the end of the year anyway because are so old/sick. He also claimed there would not be enough ICU beds- now says the hospitals will be fine. Also, just last week thought 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary- now says it will peak and subside within 2 to 3 weeks. This is the guy whose work the media has constantly cited- fueling panic.
Weird how I, not a professional epidemiologist but just a lowly data analyst with access to publicly available historical data, was able to predict essentially the exact same thing way back when the professional worst case scenario imaginers was still saying we were all going to die.
These regularly occurring novel virus outbreaks barely move the needle on all-cause mortality because the majority of deaths are "stolen" from other causes. When more people die of virus A, fewer people die of viruses B through Z.
"Very soon too. Just 12 years. Excuse me, what's that? Why did I buy a $9 million home on the Atlantic coast if I think the world is going to flood due to global warming? What kind of racist question is that?"
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't US death rate trajectory from COVID-19 Kung Flu still less that the H1N1 death trajectory? So far it looks like COVID-19 will kill less people than H1N1 (swine flu) of 2009-2010 here in the US. Am I wrong?
Little talked about fact, H1N1 is the strain of influenza that caused the much touted "Spanish flu" outbreak of 1918. It's been around at LEAST 100 years, so if you count the entirety of its death toll, then CoV-19 has a LOT of catching up to do.
Just limiting it to the bad flu season of 2009-2010, so far H1N1 is still worse. It's unusually more dangerous to people between the ages of 25-65, while CoV-19 only seems to be really dangerous to the same elderly or chronically ill people that any common cold virus can kill.
Here's the real trick, though. H1N1 wasn't "that bad" either. Around 3.8 MILLION Americans die every year. Pneumonia as a complication from flu or colds is in the top ten causes of death for every age group 0-25 and 65 and up EVERY YEAR. Whenever a specific virus gets famous for killing more than its share, it generally means FEWER people are dying from all the other viruses.
As a result, all-cause mortality barely changes. The odds of you dying from any viral infection are still lower than the odds of you dying in a slip-and-fall accident. Of course the MOST likely cause of death BY FAR is old age, but that doesn't sell the papers.
It all makes more sense when you remember that 50% of the population the media is broadcasting to is literally clinically retarded. Their message is not for people capable of critical thinking.
No the Imperial College report always predicted that if drastic “suppression measures” were taken like shutting down social gatherings and nonessential businesses, then the deaths would be limited to the thousands. https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?s=21
Most of the country has not taken anywhere near the level of "drastic measures" they suggested- face it, he dramatically overestimated the impact. Even he now admits it. To suggest otherwise is the worst kind of revisionist history. Also, they predicted, even if the most draconian measures were taken to slow the spread, all the ventilators would be in use. Not even close.
Mitigation measures were not enacted to the level they suggested
Most mitigation measures that have been enacted were done 2 to 3 weeks later than they suggested
Even if the government enacted the most draconian mitigation measures, at the time they were suggested, they predicted every ventilator would currently be in use- clearly that is not happening
He himself admits his underlying assumptions were incorrect
He was drastically wrong and it has little to do with the government response, which has been much slower than what he called for and not nearly as stringent. His estimates, which the media ran with, have put over 3 million Americans out of work. There needs to be accountability for all who pushed this madness. And that does not mean the China Virus is not a serious public health issue- but the only people the media had on tended to be those spreading panic. Scientists that said we were overreacting were not given equal time to make their case. That was wrong.
Someone needs to telling Joe Scarborough that Neil Ferguson updated his estimate. What a fucking TDS moron who has been pushing panic. He just tweeted this. These propagandists need to be shamed and held accountable.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1243189627923697665?s=20
Just one "expert" in a long line of "experts" to be absurdly wrong. The very same "elites" who have been making decisions all these years that exposed the world to this pandemic from their free trade agreements to their open borders.
Neil Ferguson of Imperial college London. The article being referenced.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
Yep. He went from predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK to 20,000, more than half of whom he now says would have died by the end of the year anyway because are so old/sick. He also claimed there would not be enough ICU beds- now says the hospitals will be fine. Also, just last week thought 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary- now says it will peak and subside within 2 to 3 weeks. This is the guy whose work the media has constantly cited- fueling panic.
Weird how I, not a professional epidemiologist but just a lowly data analyst with access to publicly available historical data, was able to predict essentially the exact same thing way back when the professional worst case scenario imaginers was still saying we were all going to die.
These regularly occurring novel virus outbreaks barely move the needle on all-cause mortality because the majority of deaths are "stolen" from other causes. When more people die of virus A, fewer people die of viruses B through Z.
Okay this was one slight miscalculation but for real climate change gonna kill us all!!! (Unless you give government more money)
"Very soon too. Just 12 years. Excuse me, what's that? Why did I buy a $9 million home on the Atlantic coast if I think the world is going to flood due to global warming? What kind of racist question is that?"
Just be happy you didn't die to net neutrality.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't US death rate trajectory from COVID-19 Kung Flu still less that the H1N1 death trajectory? So far it looks like COVID-19 will kill less people than H1N1 (swine flu) of 2009-2010 here in the US. Am I wrong?
Little talked about fact, H1N1 is the strain of influenza that caused the much touted "Spanish flu" outbreak of 1918. It's been around at LEAST 100 years, so if you count the entirety of its death toll, then CoV-19 has a LOT of catching up to do.
Just limiting it to the bad flu season of 2009-2010, so far H1N1 is still worse. It's unusually more dangerous to people between the ages of 25-65, while CoV-19 only seems to be really dangerous to the same elderly or chronically ill people that any common cold virus can kill.
Here's the real trick, though. H1N1 wasn't "that bad" either. Around 3.8 MILLION Americans die every year. Pneumonia as a complication from flu or colds is in the top ten causes of death for every age group 0-25 and 65 and up EVERY YEAR. Whenever a specific virus gets famous for killing more than its share, it generally means FEWER people are dying from all the other viruses.
As a result, all-cause mortality barely changes. The odds of you dying from any viral infection are still lower than the odds of you dying in a slip-and-fall accident. Of course the MOST likely cause of death BY FAR is old age, but that doesn't sell the papers.
You're not infected with the socialist mindvirus, is why.
It's really a case of doctors trying to do data analytics... poorly.
It all makes more sense when you remember that 50% of the population the media is broadcasting to is literally clinically retarded. Their message is not for people capable of critical thinking.
And has been wrong on his predictions since Trump was in office, and until late last year he owned up to being wrong.
And people wonder why no one trusts experts anymore.
Expert = someone who gets everything 100% wrong and whose predictions turn out to be the exact opposite of what actually happened
No the Imperial College report always predicted that if drastic “suppression measures” were taken like shutting down social gatherings and nonessential businesses, then the deaths would be limited to the thousands. https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?s=21
Most of the country has not taken anywhere near the level of "drastic measures" they suggested- face it, he dramatically overestimated the impact. Even he now admits it. To suggest otherwise is the worst kind of revisionist history. Also, they predicted, even if the most draconian measures were taken to slow the spread, all the ventilators would be in use. Not even close.
He admitted it after he got infected lol.
Source? Did you read the report? Where did you see he admits he overestimated? You realize we haven’t even come close to peaking yet, right?
Take a look at this plot. This is an exponential growth consistently of about 30% per day so far. This is a logarithmic plot. It’s growing quickly. Brace yourself. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-MdH022qBRottbaOV4qYKRHZ-rBC1Ozh/view?fbclid=IwAR27sSanGqVhl28ELCxghfH7AWTINyFzDfQVnLBgcgG_XM4OulT3nxFpYWI
He was drastically wrong and it has little to do with the government response, which has been much slower than what he called for and not nearly as stringent. His estimates, which the media ran with, have put over 3 million Americans out of work. There needs to be accountability for all who pushed this madness. And that does not mean the China Virus is not a serious public health issue- but the only people the media had on tended to be those spreading panic. Scientists that said we were overreacting were not given equal time to make their case. That was wrong.
Someone needs to telling Joe Scarborough that Neil Ferguson updated his estimate. What a fucking TDS moron who has been pushing panic. He just tweeted this. These propagandists need to be shamed and held accountable. https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1243189627923697665?s=20
Fuck Joe & Joe (Biden and Intern Murderer)
Al franken the rapist has a comment to on there that says the president is crazy, and I'm not kidding, something dumb by Biden just a few lines above.
This is actually big news, like REALLY BIG news that will never see the light of day in the US. I so despise the MSM.
Thank you
Just one "expert" in a long line of "experts" to be absurdly wrong. The very same "elites" who have been making decisions all these years that exposed the world to this pandemic from their free trade agreements to their open borders.