Which is baffling to me. So what if it does or doesn’t work. If it doesn’t work why f-ing ban it? What’s the point of banning it? Why go through the effort? Why make a special effort to ban a generally harmless medication? This is the biggest eyebrow raiser for me.
Yes well I think there needs to be severe punishments for the people who promoted this. Made an example of. It is treason/sedition to me. They are waging psychological war and attacked our supply lines.
Geneva Convention rules of POWs does NOT apply. They are not in uniform.
Right now, half the country is living in areas where governors have unprecedented power and are buying into the fear. Once this starts blowing over, then yes. And while we're at it, THE FUCKING RUSSIA COLLUSION HOAX people need justice, don't anyone fucking forget that. Clapper, Comey, Brennan, Clinton, Perkins Gooey law firm, and everyone else connected. Steele was probably just a name attached, Glenn Simpson was behind it, he wrote an almost verbatim scenario in 08 against McCain, but McCain Acquiesced so it disappeared.
Oh and [email protected] needs to get brought to light and punished as well.
With the fear as it is and the economy collapsing, this is literally Bernie's chance if enough people fall wayside. People fear the virus and want to do everything they can to stay away from it, but when the economy collapses, people will be pissed at the situation. Collapsed economies are literally how every instance of communism rose.
Common sense doesn't work on those people, because the basis for the panic is to Get Trump and they are not giving up on that. Good news will be suppressed and anyone who talks about it will be shamed.
I think they are desperate for this to be true as well. It is clouding their judgement. Obama was the statist/leftist Jesus, he was their Messiah.
Trump wasn't supposed to win it was "Her Turn". The economy turns around, people get hope, their lives get better, his approval rating stays higher than their Messiah's did. These statist put so much of their belief system in the belief that government can make their lives better.
But along came VSG and took the government off the people's throat a little and the economy came back to life. The whole statist/leftist/MSM narrative has been blown apart.
They NEED this virus to be a pandemic of Biblical proportions so they can say "see? We were right along, you do need government and Trump screwed up". They really really need it to be true.
I hate to say I knew it- but whatever. The crazy part of all this is people basically begging for martial law. College students that protest damn near fucking everything, being cool with being kicked to the curb and their graduation plans up in the air- people calling the police for their neighbor's coughing. People calling the police or going outside to confront their neighbor's who are jogging/takijg the dog for a walk.
The speed at which shelter-in-place, social distancing, and flattening the curve took hold in the lexicon with people parroting it seemingly non-stop. This whole shitshow seems like something out of the Twilight Zone. At no point to me did it make sense to lockdown whole states and countries over a virus. It's unprecedented- and our economy is going to be fucked for quite some time- people's 401k's got hammered as did their retirement portfolios- and I can't help but believe that it was all in an effort ( the US reaction) to get Orange Man Bad.
Trump was put in a no win situation. Even when he did act early he was called panicky and xenophobic. Then they twisted his words and said that he called the virus a hoax. Then they reported the bullshit of him cutting the pandemic response team and slashing tbe CDC's budget. Of course it was all bullshit- and the pols and MSM repeating it knew it was bullshit, but by the time the record was straightened, the NPC's already had been programmed.
The real scary part is that many Dems/Libs are acting like real NPC's. It's a funny meme and joke. It's not so funny if that's how they are acting in real life- and they are.
I think it's unconscionable, the shit that the Dems played with this virus relief package- and it's worse that people actually defend it. What have we come to as a nation, where both sides can't agree that adding $350,000,000 for illegals, money for the NPR, PBS, and Kennedy Center have NO FUCKING BUSINESS being included in this bill? Or the fucking bullshit ballot harvesting and election fuckery that they tried to include? I just can't believe that there are people that are ok with that- given people are getting laid off by the 1000's and 1000's of businesses are being unwillingly closed- the collateral damage to families and individuals is going to be felt for years. But hey, atleast there's money to help illegals, amirite?
What have we come to as a nation, where both sides can't agree that adding $350,000,000 for illegals, money for the NPR, PBS, and Kennedy Center have NO FUCKING BUSINESS being included in this bill?
This 100%. PLUS a raise for Congress. Should be saying no money for Congress until people get their jobs/lives back.
This actually makes GEOTUS like like the very stable genius he is.
He followed the advice of experts. Shutting down travel slowed the seeding of the virus. The 15 day plan is exactly what the original paper said we need to do. Shutting schools down and social distancing.
It's working just like the paper said it would work. We should stop shitting on this guy who wrote it.
Also, reopening the economy doesn't mean we can't continue to be smart, and practice necessary habits to help keep the chances of spread to an absolute minimum
We've landed on the moon for christ sake, we can fight a virus without everyone having to stay home for 4 months. I'm already losing my mind, I want to get back to normal or I'll be divorced by Christmas
10 reasons on how over estimating and causing panic is a good thing. Also, cuckoldry may help stop the spread of China Virus. Stay tunes to CNN. We keep the news real!
This is the correct response. Nothing was wrong with the original report. It presented the worst case scenario if no action was taken. That created a bit of a panic, but it also motivated everyone to get their ass in gear. It's still going to be a shitty couple of weeks, but it looks like we are taking it seriously now and avoiding that worst case scenario. Doesn't mean the disease isn't dangerous or that the original report was wrong--just means we did something, and it is hopefully working.
I said the same thing when this was posted earlier. Seems to be controversial among fellow 'pedes.
The initial report was a worst case scenario reflecting if we did absolutely nothing, but states are locking down and supplies are being purchased much quicker than previous administrations. And they've updated their projections to take account for this. Spreading the idea that GEOTUS and his people have been following a report that was fake news all along isn't good and nor do these adjustments even suggest the original report was bad.
They gave a worse case, we took action, and now they've given an update saying "good, your action is working."
I don't get why this is so controversial on this site. It's literally the reason I stopped lurking and started posting two weeks ago. Like, it's possible to recognize the hypocrisy in the MSM, support Trump, and recognize that this is a really dangerous situation. Maybe it's just because I live in a blue area and have a lot of connections to folks in the medical industry, but unchecked, this is dangerous! Yeah, it totally sucks to shut stuff down for a while, but our economy is strong and will restart in no time. The best thing we can do is buckle down and let GEOTUS do his job.
I completely agree. Anyone who's panicking like it's the apocalypse is a dumbass, but anyone who thinks this will be just another run of the flu isn't filtering their news that well either. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and I actually wish some of our states were doing more. FL has taken so long to close stuff that, if I were Governor of a state, I wouldn't even want to allow travel from there.
I'm in NC, commuting distance to Durham so we've been locked down for a bit. We have a blue Governor but I think his response has been proportional to the medical information given to him.
Keep safe, Pede! Agree we've seen some spectacular dumbassery on both sides of the aisle over the past few weeks (I'd expect Pelosi's BS but Burr severely disappointed me) and also some surprisingly sensible actions from, an albeit very small number of blue folk. Hope that doesn't get me banned! Who knows, maybe we will look back on this as a healing moment for our nation where we actually value competence in leadership rather than just blindly follow partisan lines? Not holding my breath there...
Reality check for you. You're not smarter than every leader in the world who implemented the mitigation steps to stop this from being catastrophic. And it still is touch and go in New York and Italy because they made it a point to virtue signal and hug Chinese just to show Trump is a racist.
This is premature and NOT accurate by Redstate - they are quoting a former NYTimes (!!!) reporter, not a scientist!
Facts:
Ferguson's center J-IDEA warned about Pandemic and CHINA LYING since February 5th and released Modeling / Data in a paper for Peer Review. Media IGNORED the report.
Ferguson's March report with huge deaths prediction was overblown by media, not reported on accurately - without analyzing the assumptions.
Ferguson's / J-IDEAS current model is ALSO analyzed without looking at the assumptions. If it's Predictive modeling, it does not have to rely on current UK data exclusively. Alex Berenson claims that it is suspiciously positive before the quarantine had time to have effect. It's a bad assumption on his part that the model is not predictive or trend-based!
DO NOT trust Alex Berenson to get the Science right! His twitter analysis is NOT a reliable source, he did not analyze the modeling!
Don't be Dumb - Remember, you represent the movement against Globalism, Communism and Progressive Insanity. Your comments and posts may become news.
I wish I could upvote you more. Yes, the original report was interpreted as panic, but as you mention, they were clear about their assumptions, and are updating it responsibly in response to the actions that we are taking now. Nothing wrong with that.
Out of curiosity, how much action do you think we would have been taking without the "panic"? On one hand, it has been absolutely ridiculous, but on the other, we may have continued to ignore this (as we did for months when we could have taken even more steps to mitigate this) for longer... I'm not sure TBH.
When I saw Ferguson's original J-IDEA report, indicating that China under-reports 9 out of 10 cases (due to lack of testing and lack of desire to show numbers), based solely on the infection spread rate - I got concerned enough to start stocking up on food and personal protection equipment.
It's very unfortunate (deliberate?) that J-IDEA's February 5, 2020 report got completely ignored (50K views at the time) despite this being one of the primary institutions for Epidemic Modeling in the UK.
I refuse to believe no journalist watched that video back in February.
Some editorial groups are responsible.
I watched an expert claim that the UK's initial plan to "let the disease run it's course" despite appearing monstrous, is actually a legitimate strategy when tackling a strain with low mortality - the wider the spread, the more the virus adapts and becomes even milder, the more herd-immunity is obtained by the general population - so the vulnerable (who should have been Quarantined) are less likely to be infected.
The problem is that Wuhan-Cov-19 has multiple strains, at least two are known. The same expert claimed that South Korea received a later strain that was much milder with a 0.5% mortality, while Italy received the "earlier" strain that was still brutal with 5%+ mortality.
Note that the actual number of heavily ill people that require hospitalization is higher than the mortality number (though the number of cases detected is also much lower than total amount of infected).
What is certain is that if the UK was also hit with the 5% strain alone, like in Lombardy, Italy, it would have been a huge disaster due to the much higher population density.
How do you come to that conclusion. They refused, several times, to release how they came to that data. They allowed the media to fear monger at all time rates. THEY SAID HALF A MILLION PEOPLE IN THE UK WOULD DIE. That's a gross gross gross over-exaggeration. There's literally no other way to put it. They yelled fire in a packed theatre
"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."
Yes, it's true that many in the MSM fear mongered as a result. But as a result, we started taking action. So they revised their results. That's how this shit should work... If you want to be mad at the media, go ahead... But when this was released, people ALL OVER were downplaying this virus and not taking it seriously at all.
How convenient was the release of that garbage study for those that wanted to shut everything down? It came out just as governors were making key decisions. It was pedaled to governors by bozos in public health with degrees in health ecology and sensationalized by the MSM.
I want these people from the Imperial College investigated for any ties to British intelligence, the CIA, the Open Society, or any other sinister globalist groups or people.
I legitimately think people who caused the most panic should have charges filed against them. Freedom of speech is different than causing mass panic, which actually increased the rate of spread because 100s in a grocery store at once is asking for trouble.
These people caused legitimate panic, and the ohio democrat who said "100k already have it" like 3 weeks ago should be held responsible as well. Many of this fear mongering led to the market tanking more than it should have as well. They cost lives, and they cost lots of money.
Continuing your comment, I'm willing to give the governors the benefit of the doubt for enacting strong measures. Sometimes you only have the information that's given to you, and I think striking early, as many of them did, really helped to slow this down. It's not difficult to read into this with a conspiracy mindset but, for now, I'm choosing to believe most were actively looking out for their states and people and made decisions based on what they were told by supposed professionals. For example, I'm not a fan at ALL of Gov Polis of CO but I think his swift action in shutting down the ski resorts early, while inflammatory to many of us here, was the right thing to do and may have saved us from a worse outbreak.
Then why are they all Democrats except for one? And why would any of them try to prevent treatment with the drug? That last one makes no sense except as a deliberate attempt to prolong the crisis, which should be punished with the death penalty.
"Starting to look more like Left Wing shenanigans everyday!" is probably why, mods are craving less opinion-spiced titles right now (grave face). It will probably change in 10 minutes, better luck next time! If you're surviving get ready celebrate the way the Druids welcomed the Spring, with a breeding frenzy. At the office even if you are so eager to get back to work.
I have always had the gut feeling that this would be a nonstop hysteria for several weeks, a kin to the nonstop hype about the Mueller investigation and the impeachment scam and then, it would just magically disappear and these people would act like it never happened. Except this time the damage is too great to ignore.
It is not "magically disappearing"--it's being mitigated by some very painful, but very necessary public health responses... We're going to see a lot of people die over the next few weeks, but because we're taking measures now, we are saving lives! It definitely is putting a dent in the economy, but there's pretty good reason to think that not taking action would have made it even worse:
The reason is the initial report used worst case model to show KPI's if nothing was done. It recommended shutting down schools and social distancing to lower the numbers. That's what the successful countries did. Japan shut down schools right away.
I think if there's a conspiracy it was the other way around. People were trying to hide the recommendations in this report hoping Trump would underestimate the seriousness of this and then we all would have been fucked.
The truly maddening thing about this is that the misleadia can spend a month straight fearmongering and sowing panic with predictions of "millions dead" and when that number never even remotely materializes they'll just say "Oh, well, it was because of the extreme measures we took in locking down the entire country and putting millions out of work that we didn't see those huge numbers," and a large percentage of the populace will just nod their heads and accept that this was all necessary.
Regarding Neil Ferguson & Imperial College......perhaps we should look at how Italy treats their seismologists. For wrongly predicting seismic events and causing panic —- criminal arrest.
What about causing panic resulting in 3.3 million now without jobs?
The report was reckless and dangerously flawed. BUT, the media feeding frenzy has arguably been worse. They sought out and endlessly echoed the highest, scariest numbers they could find, stoking the panic. Fear mongering at its worst. But muh more clicks. Isn't this worse than yelling fire in a crowded theater??
The truth is that this whole thing has been a hoax from the beginning. The GEOTUS tried to resist but was politically forced to put on a show. Obama needs to go to prison for this.
The notes on this report acknowledged that it was probably wildly incorrect and they didn’t stand behind their predictions from the get go. This really isn’t on them that much, they fear-mongered and that was bad but It’s mostly on the people who made decisions based on this. One more week and they will be saying “we told you we were just making it up” and the report will be completely discredited. This should be a big story, it probably won’t be but you never know. :-)
The media want a crisis so it can sell more ad space and papers (for the few that can go out and buy them). They will make millions over all this.
Look how the media in other countries basically forced some government's hands by taking pictures of pubs at the weekend. Even going as far as to say taking a walk up a mountain was a bad thing.
He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
Its important that America stays stable in these times. I think there's going to be political uncertainty around the world in the aftermath of all of this.
Do u think anybody in the Media production meetings every morning thought about the long-term ramifications of promoting scare numbers? I mean if you predict 30 Gazillion deaths and 800 Mecha-Godzillian confirmed cases and the numbers come in waaaaaay under that they dont think people might say ''hey that Trump dude saved us from armageddon'!"" ? friggin morons! ORANGE MAN BADASS!!!!!!
Well more people have guns than ever before
all we need is a wall to line these bastards up against it.
That was very generous of you. Thank you, pede.
I like beer
And i still like beer
I like to party
Milwaukee here, got you covered!🍻
I'll begin to practice my "This is MAGA COUNTRY" chants ASAP
Blood for blood?
We can use the southern border wall. Should be long enough now.
So is lead, tho. Just sayin.
Probably not satisfying enough...
Agree.
Too bad states are banning it
Which is baffling to me. So what if it does or doesn’t work. If it doesn’t work why f-ing ban it? What’s the point of banning it? Why go through the effort? Why make a special effort to ban a generally harmless medication? This is the biggest eyebrow raiser for me.
Because Orange Man is bad.
It's almost as if, this entire thing was set up to make orange man look bad?! IMPOSSIBLE!!!!! IT CAN'T BE, I'M SHOCKED!!!
Pressers so good the media refuses to air them
Kek
And they are dialing it back now precisely because Trump's favorability is going up. Crisis over, people. Nothing to see here.
Yes well I think there needs to be severe punishments for the people who promoted this. Made an example of. It is treason/sedition to me. They are waging psychological war and attacked our supply lines.
Geneva Convention rules of POWs does NOT apply. They are not in uniform.
When this Valkyrie event is over, we need to tighten our laws so these health agencies can’t take over our government ever cold season.
Can you imagine? A counter of how many people in the USA that have the flu every single year.
Wonder why Harvard didn't go online in 2009 when the Swine Flu was killing Americans.
"Medical Officer of Health" BTFO
Right now, half the country is living in areas where governors have unprecedented power and are buying into the fear. Once this starts blowing over, then yes. And while we're at it, THE FUCKING RUSSIA COLLUSION HOAX people need justice, don't anyone fucking forget that. Clapper, Comey, Brennan, Clinton, Perkins Gooey law firm, and everyone else connected. Steele was probably just a name attached, Glenn Simpson was behind it, he wrote an almost verbatim scenario in 08 against McCain, but McCain Acquiesced so it disappeared.
Oh and [email protected] needs to get brought to light and punished as well.
With the fear as it is and the economy collapsing, this is literally Bernie's chance if enough people fall wayside. People fear the virus and want to do everything they can to stay away from it, but when the economy collapses, people will be pissed at the situation. Collapsed economies are literally how every instance of communism rose.
Yes.
Common sense doesn't work on those people, because the basis for the panic is to Get Trump and they are not giving up on that. Good news will be suppressed and anyone who talks about it will be shamed.
They also need the drama.
I think they are desperate for this to be true as well. It is clouding their judgement. Obama was the statist/leftist Jesus, he was their Messiah.
Trump wasn't supposed to win it was "Her Turn". The economy turns around, people get hope, their lives get better, his approval rating stays higher than their Messiah's did. These statist put so much of their belief system in the belief that government can make their lives better.
But along came VSG and took the government off the people's throat a little and the economy came back to life. The whole statist/leftist/MSM narrative has been blown apart.
They NEED this virus to be a pandemic of Biblical proportions so they can say "see? We were right along, you do need government and Trump screwed up". They really really need it to be true.
I hate to say I knew it- but whatever. The crazy part of all this is people basically begging for martial law. College students that protest damn near fucking everything, being cool with being kicked to the curb and their graduation plans up in the air- people calling the police for their neighbor's coughing. People calling the police or going outside to confront their neighbor's who are jogging/takijg the dog for a walk.
The speed at which shelter-in-place, social distancing, and flattening the curve took hold in the lexicon with people parroting it seemingly non-stop. This whole shitshow seems like something out of the Twilight Zone. At no point to me did it make sense to lockdown whole states and countries over a virus. It's unprecedented- and our economy is going to be fucked for quite some time- people's 401k's got hammered as did their retirement portfolios- and I can't help but believe that it was all in an effort ( the US reaction) to get Orange Man Bad.
Trump was put in a no win situation. Even when he did act early he was called panicky and xenophobic. Then they twisted his words and said that he called the virus a hoax. Then they reported the bullshit of him cutting the pandemic response team and slashing tbe CDC's budget. Of course it was all bullshit- and the pols and MSM repeating it knew it was bullshit, but by the time the record was straightened, the NPC's already had been programmed.
The real scary part is that many Dems/Libs are acting like real NPC's. It's a funny meme and joke. It's not so funny if that's how they are acting in real life- and they are.
I think it's unconscionable, the shit that the Dems played with this virus relief package- and it's worse that people actually defend it. What have we come to as a nation, where both sides can't agree that adding $350,000,000 for illegals, money for the NPR, PBS, and Kennedy Center have NO FUCKING BUSINESS being included in this bill? Or the fucking bullshit ballot harvesting and election fuckery that they tried to include? I just can't believe that there are people that are ok with that- given people are getting laid off by the 1000's and 1000's of businesses are being unwillingly closed- the collateral damage to families and individuals is going to be felt for years. But hey, atleast there's money to help illegals, amirite?
This 100%. PLUS a raise for Congress. Should be saying no money for Congress until people get their jobs/lives back.
AMEN!
They don't care. Whatever they can say to try to make the president look bad.
This actually makes GEOTUS like like the very stable genius he is.
He followed the advice of experts. Shutting down travel slowed the seeding of the virus. The 15 day plan is exactly what the original paper said we need to do. Shutting schools down and social distancing.
It's working just like the paper said it would work. We should stop shitting on this guy who wrote it.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Also, reopening the economy doesn't mean we can't continue to be smart, and practice necessary habits to help keep the chances of spread to an absolute minimum
We've landed on the moon for christ sake, we can fight a virus without everyone having to stay home for 4 months. I'm already losing my mind, I want to get back to normal or I'll be divorced by Christmas
Exactly this. It's the plan they talk about every day. You should make this it's own post and mods should sticky this.
These predictions early on are always bullshit. Look at predictions for H1N1. Its doom porn for them
Unfortunately the MSM will overlook this.
They will outright censor it.
at some point they will probably just move on to the next outrage. Orange Man Bad (cause next ridiculous bullshit).
Now I’m picturing a French military surplus store filled with muskets, funny uniforms, horse accessories and guillotines
Broham I could make you a guillotine with some very classy wood joinery that will last a lifetime in a few days.
Exactly.
Yeah, we're due for another impeachment.
Censor it? Flip it and turn it against us.
10 reasons on how over estimating and causing panic is a good thing. Also, cuckoldry may help stop the spread of China Virus. Stay tunes to CNN. We keep the news real!
Over projecting deaths by 2500% nbd.
it was a graveyard smash
It caught on in a flash.
They did the math!
It's like when you wanted to type in 2.5% but some how it gets converted to 2500% and throws everything off. Simple error, happens to everybody.
Stop blaspheming Science you heretic!
"If you let the virus spread and do nothing, we'll all die..."
"Oh... we did something, just kidding, not everyone will die."
American media: "Even though everyone won't die, Orange Man bad."
This is the correct response. Nothing was wrong with the original report. It presented the worst case scenario if no action was taken. That created a bit of a panic, but it also motivated everyone to get their ass in gear. It's still going to be a shitty couple of weeks, but it looks like we are taking it seriously now and avoiding that worst case scenario. Doesn't mean the disease isn't dangerous or that the original report was wrong--just means we did something, and it is hopefully working.
I said the same thing when this was posted earlier. Seems to be controversial among fellow 'pedes.
The initial report was a worst case scenario reflecting if we did absolutely nothing, but states are locking down and supplies are being purchased much quicker than previous administrations. And they've updated their projections to take account for this. Spreading the idea that GEOTUS and his people have been following a report that was fake news all along isn't good and nor do these adjustments even suggest the original report was bad.
They gave a worse case, we took action, and now they've given an update saying "good, your action is working."
I don't get why this is so controversial on this site. It's literally the reason I stopped lurking and started posting two weeks ago. Like, it's possible to recognize the hypocrisy in the MSM, support Trump, and recognize that this is a really dangerous situation. Maybe it's just because I live in a blue area and have a lot of connections to folks in the medical industry, but unchecked, this is dangerous! Yeah, it totally sucks to shut stuff down for a while, but our economy is strong and will restart in no time. The best thing we can do is buckle down and let GEOTUS do his job.
I completely agree. Anyone who's panicking like it's the apocalypse is a dumbass, but anyone who thinks this will be just another run of the flu isn't filtering their news that well either. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and I actually wish some of our states were doing more. FL has taken so long to close stuff that, if I were Governor of a state, I wouldn't even want to allow travel from there.
I'm in NC, commuting distance to Durham so we've been locked down for a bit. We have a blue Governor but I think his response has been proportional to the medical information given to him.
Keep safe, Pede! Agree we've seen some spectacular dumbassery on both sides of the aisle over the past few weeks (I'd expect Pelosi's BS but Burr severely disappointed me) and also some surprisingly sensible actions from, an albeit very small number of blue folk. Hope that doesn't get me banned! Who knows, maybe we will look back on this as a healing moment for our nation where we actually value competence in leadership rather than just blindly follow partisan lines? Not holding my breath there...
the actions literally changed nothing except a shortage of toilet paper
Not responding to public health crises damages the economy more than taking action.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3039122/
Read the report and look at the data.
Reality check for you. You're not smarter than every leader in the world who implemented the mitigation steps to stop this from being catastrophic. And it still is touch and go in New York and Italy because they made it a point to virtue signal and hug Chinese just to show Trump is a racist.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is premature and NOT accurate by Redstate - they are quoting a former NYTimes (!!!) reporter, not a scientist!
Facts:
Ferguson's center J-IDEA warned about Pandemic and CHINA LYING since February 5th and released Modeling / Data in a paper for Peer Review. Media IGNORED the report.
Ferguson's March report with huge deaths prediction was overblown by media, not reported on accurately - without analyzing the assumptions.
Ferguson's / J-IDEAS current model is ALSO analyzed without looking at the assumptions. If it's Predictive modeling, it does not have to rely on current UK data exclusively. Alex Berenson claims that it is suspiciously positive before the quarantine had time to have effect. It's a bad assumption on his part that the model is not predictive or trend-based!
DO NOT trust Alex Berenson to get the Science right! His twitter analysis is NOT a reliable source, he did not analyze the modeling!
I wish I could upvote you more. Yes, the original report was interpreted as panic, but as you mention, they were clear about their assumptions, and are updating it responsibly in response to the actions that we are taking now. Nothing wrong with that.
Out of curiosity, how much action do you think we would have been taking without the "panic"? On one hand, it has been absolutely ridiculous, but on the other, we may have continued to ignore this (as we did for months when we could have taken even more steps to mitigate this) for longer... I'm not sure TBH.
When I saw Ferguson's original J-IDEA report, indicating that China under-reports 9 out of 10 cases (due to lack of testing and lack of desire to show numbers), based solely on the infection spread rate - I got concerned enough to start stocking up on food and personal protection equipment.
https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw
It's very unfortunate (deliberate?) that J-IDEA's February 5, 2020 report got completely ignored (50K views at the time) despite this being one of the primary institutions for Epidemic Modeling in the UK.
I refuse to believe no journalist watched that video back in February. Some editorial groups are responsible.
I watched an expert claim that the UK's initial plan to "let the disease run it's course" despite appearing monstrous, is actually a legitimate strategy when tackling a strain with low mortality - the wider the spread, the more the virus adapts and becomes even milder, the more herd-immunity is obtained by the general population - so the vulnerable (who should have been Quarantined) are less likely to be infected.
The problem is that Wuhan-Cov-19 has multiple strains, at least two are known. The same expert claimed that South Korea received a later strain that was much milder with a 0.5% mortality, while Italy received the "earlier" strain that was still brutal with 5%+ mortality.
Note that the actual number of heavily ill people that require hospitalization is higher than the mortality number (though the number of cases detected is also much lower than total amount of infected).
What is certain is that if the UK was also hit with the 5% strain alone, like in Lombardy, Italy, it would have been a huge disaster due to the much higher population density.
Yeah, I dunno what happened. Clearly some countries were paying more attention... This is complicated stuff.
How do you come to that conclusion. They refused, several times, to release how they came to that data. They allowed the media to fear monger at all time rates. THEY SAID HALF A MILLION PEOPLE IN THE UK WOULD DIE. That's a gross gross gross over-exaggeration. There's literally no other way to put it. They yelled fire in a packed theatre
It is literally in the report:
"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."
They state their assumptions extremely clearly throughout: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Yes, it's true that many in the MSM fear mongered as a result. But as a result, we started taking action. So they revised their results. That's how this shit should work... If you want to be mad at the media, go ahead... But when this was released, people ALL OVER were downplaying this virus and not taking it seriously at all.
Read the report and get back to us.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
How convenient was the release of that garbage study for those that wanted to shut everything down? It came out just as governors were making key decisions. It was pedaled to governors by bozos in public health with degrees in health ecology and sensationalized by the MSM.
I want these people from the Imperial College investigated for any ties to British intelligence, the CIA, the Open Society, or any other sinister globalist groups or people.
I legitimately think people who caused the most panic should have charges filed against them. Freedom of speech is different than causing mass panic, which actually increased the rate of spread because 100s in a grocery store at once is asking for trouble.
These people caused legitimate panic, and the ohio democrat who said "100k already have it" like 3 weeks ago should be held responsible as well. Many of this fear mongering led to the market tanking more than it should have as well. They cost lives, and they cost lots of money.
Continuing your comment, I'm willing to give the governors the benefit of the doubt for enacting strong measures. Sometimes you only have the information that's given to you, and I think striking early, as many of them did, really helped to slow this down. It's not difficult to read into this with a conspiracy mindset but, for now, I'm choosing to believe most were actively looking out for their states and people and made decisions based on what they were told by supposed professionals. For example, I'm not a fan at ALL of Gov Polis of CO but I think his swift action in shutting down the ski resorts early, while inflammatory to many of us here, was the right thing to do and may have saved us from a worse outbreak.
Then why are they all Democrats except for one? And why would any of them try to prevent treatment with the drug? That last one makes no sense except as a deliberate attempt to prolong the crisis, which should be punished with the death penalty.
Might be wrong, but I heard that govs restricting use of the drugs was meant to prevent hoarding of them?
Convenient? They did what was the best thing to do to slow the spread.
It's the fucking 15 day Slow The Spread card that Pence holds up everyday that all the pedes cream themselves over.
20,000 deaths in USA (less than flu) vs. 2,000,000 deaths.
The commentator from Major League "Juuuuuusssssttt a bit outside!"
spez: Bob Uecker had to look it up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdv2Wp9MzY0
Yes you are correct. Even more insane.
damn i just posted this! how did you get stickied and not me????? lol jk
this is great news. should be back to work ASAP
"Starting to look more like Left Wing shenanigans everyday!" is probably why, mods are craving less opinion-spiced titles right now (grave face). It will probably change in 10 minutes, better luck next time! If you're surviving get ready celebrate the way the Druids welcomed the Spring, with a breeding frenzy. At the office even if you are so eager to get back to work.
The whole point is taking action like stopping everything is what lowered the estimates.
Those who bought a year's worth of toilet paper are not happy.
No refunds!
I did not need to know that....
Decorating Mag: Make this DIY TP Xmas Tree! (Please drape LED lights around it only)
I have always had the gut feeling that this would be a nonstop hysteria for several weeks, a kin to the nonstop hype about the Mueller investigation and the impeachment scam and then, it would just magically disappear and these people would act like it never happened. Except this time the damage is too great to ignore.
It is not "magically disappearing"--it's being mitigated by some very painful, but very necessary public health responses... We're going to see a lot of people die over the next few weeks, but because we're taking measures now, we are saving lives! It definitely is putting a dent in the economy, but there's pretty good reason to think that not taking action would have made it even worse:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3039122/
THIS!! ^^^
Dear God!!!
The media will attack Trump when he mentions this
He must not have figured an old Malaria treatment into his equation.
No, we did what was recommended an it's working.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Everything always come out as a fucking panic.
then after a few days people calm down and actually look at things and realize this isn't that bad.
The reason is the initial report used worst case model to show KPI's if nothing was done. It recommended shutting down schools and social distancing to lower the numbers. That's what the successful countries did. Japan shut down schools right away.
I think if there's a conspiracy it was the other way around. People were trying to hide the recommendations in this report hoping Trump would underestimate the seriousness of this and then we all would have been fucked.
from 500k to under 20k dead (more than half of which were noted as already near death or elderly), off by 2500%
from 72+ weeks down to 2-3 weeks impact time, off by 2400-3600%
they are truly not bringing their best.
These models are sick and only provide fear and doubt. Does it have the potential to kill a bunch of people? Sure. IF WE DO NOTHING!
Thankfully we are Americans, so when we do something, we do it really fucking big.
God bless America!
Holy shit, that guy was talking about 18 months of quarantine?!
Just like 0’s monthly jobs reports. Revised downward every subsequent month.
The truly maddening thing about this is that the misleadia can spend a month straight fearmongering and sowing panic with predictions of "millions dead" and when that number never even remotely materializes they'll just say "Oh, well, it was because of the extreme measures we took in locking down the entire country and putting millions out of work that we didn't see those huge numbers," and a large percentage of the populace will just nod their heads and accept that this was all necessary.
Nothing was misleading. It was accurate. It's the basis for the 15 days to slow the spread card Pence holds up every day.
Regarding Neil Ferguson & Imperial College......perhaps we should look at how Italy treats their seismologists. For wrongly predicting seismic events and causing panic —- criminal arrest.
What about causing panic resulting in 3.3 million now without jobs?
Model updated after mitigation actions have been taken. What’s the big deal?
So you're saying I should go buy some more toilet paper?
That's a first. You got downvoted for wanting to read the study instead of blindly follow the incorrect narrative. Well, probably not a first.
The report was reckless and dangerously flawed. BUT, the media feeding frenzy has arguably been worse. They sought out and endlessly echoed the highest, scariest numbers they could find, stoking the panic. Fear mongering at its worst. But muh more clicks. Isn't this worse than yelling fire in a crowded theater??
They just exposed themselves on Climate Change. Oops.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/inaccurate-virus-models-are-panicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/
Niall's Ferguson is pretty based
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here
The truth is that this whole thing has been a hoax from the beginning. The GEOTUS tried to resist but was politically forced to put on a show. Obama needs to go to prison for this.
Holocough is upon us.
Oh no, 6 million of us will die.
Or did you say 6 million sounds a bit high?
The notes on this report acknowledged that it was probably wildly incorrect and they didn’t stand behind their predictions from the get go. This really isn’t on them that much, they fear-mongered and that was bad but It’s mostly on the people who made decisions based on this. One more week and they will be saying “we told you we were just making it up” and the report will be completely discredited. This should be a big story, it probably won’t be but you never know. :-)
The media want a crisis so it can sell more ad space and papers (for the few that can go out and buy them). They will make millions over all this.
Look how the media in other countries basically forced some government's hands by taking pictures of pubs at the weekend. Even going as far as to say taking a walk up a mountain was a bad thing.
lol what, how could he make such a statement ?
Because the UK shut everything down and closed the schools now.
This is fucking criminal.
Burn them down
So it’s the China virus the the Imperial College recession
So his original range was based on third world communist shitholes with "better healthcare than the US because muh Universal Healthcare".
That site needs someone to proof read their shit.
Its important that America stays stable in these times. I think there's going to be political uncertainty around the world in the aftermath of all of this.
Do u think anybody in the Media production meetings every morning thought about the long-term ramifications of promoting scare numbers? I mean if you predict 30 Gazillion deaths and 800 Mecha-Godzillian confirmed cases and the numbers come in waaaaaay under that they dont think people might say ''hey that Trump dude saved us from armageddon'!"" ? friggin morons! ORANGE MAN BADASS!!!!!!
amazing.
What illiterate computer wrote this article? Hard to take it seriously with so many incorrect words.
Hey, it's big new!
Time to start digging, who wants to bet this guy has Soros connections?