Each day that goes by I become more convinced that although the virus is real, it has purposely been over reported to cause panic as part of a globalist Deepstate plan
I understand Ferguson is trying to claim that the model predictions are still accurate, but I find that claim pretty flimsy. He admits himself that there is more spread of the virus than they thought. Well, that completely distorts everything they would have been predicting, making the virus much less deadly. This was a key difference in Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta's competing model that predicted much less risk.
Any prediction should also have the MASSIVE caveat, mentioned front and center in EVERY discussion, that very little accurate testing has even been done at this point. The people getting prioritized for testing early on were either high-risk, or already presenting symptoms. That skews the mortality rate MASSIVELY. We HAVE to know how much this virus is spreading in the general population to truly know how lethal it is. I think we will ultimately find that Covid-19 is no more dangerous than any of the outbreaks we have been suffering on a predictable 2-year cycle for decades now. This will be remembered as The Great Overreaction.
Ferguson posted an explanation on Twitter. The model didn’t change, the variables going into the model did. The model was set up to show Britain’s CURRENT state of no containment or lockdown, which is why the death toll was so high. It was the worst-case scenario, which was the path Britain was taking at the time.
However the new numbers are because of the updated plan with social distancing and lockdown. He wasn’t “wrong” about anything. The model was simply updated with current data.
In other words people are pushing this as if it was a farce, but in reality it’s displaying how our containment efforts will help stop the spread of the disease.
Our side is slowly succumbing to fake news, because for some reason the only thing some people can see here is conspiracy, instead of a friggin global pandemic.
He actually did admit they were wrong about how much the virus has spread, which is huge. That was one of the key reasons a competing Oxford study predicting much less risk,
He didn't realize his "doomsday" predictions were faulty. He never called them doomsday predictions. He used a model with variable infection rates and mortality rates to create a baseline worst case scenario so he could show how mitigation could stop the hospital systems from being overwhelmed.
Trump and Pence's 15 Days to Stop The Spread is based on this same model.
Now that they have actual data and closed the schools and limited spread factors, the model reflects the decrease in projected deaths.
Very dishonest portrayal of what happened. The 15 Day plan is exactly based on this. Trump closing down travel and the states closing the schools are what will keep the numbers low. It's what Japan did.
No reason to shit on this guy from the college. Read the report yourself:
Each day that goes by I become more convinced that although the virus is real, it has purposely been over reported to cause panic as part of a globalist Deepstate plan
100% correct. Trump needs to start back the economy at the end of the month.
Just heard on the radio that “new models” predict a spike in May...here comes media hoax 2.01
"we are reporting looting, raping and cannibalism" "have you seen looting, raping and cannibalism" "No, we are reporting it"
Excellent South Park reference, take my upvote
Bingo!
The DS has been hoping for a recession since Trump was elected.
This is their golden opportunity to get their wish, damage Trump and hurt the US at the same time.
I understand Ferguson is trying to claim that the model predictions are still accurate, but I find that claim pretty flimsy. He admits himself that there is more spread of the virus than they thought. Well, that completely distorts everything they would have been predicting, making the virus much less deadly. This was a key difference in Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta's competing model that predicted much less risk.
Any prediction should also have the MASSIVE caveat, mentioned front and center in EVERY discussion, that very little accurate testing has even been done at this point. The people getting prioritized for testing early on were either high-risk, or already presenting symptoms. That skews the mortality rate MASSIVELY. We HAVE to know how much this virus is spreading in the general population to truly know how lethal it is. I think we will ultimately find that Covid-19 is no more dangerous than any of the outbreaks we have been suffering on a predictable 2-year cycle for decades now. This will be remembered as The Great Overreaction.
Thanks for linking the article 👍🏼
Ferguson posted an explanation on Twitter. The model didn’t change, the variables going into the model did. The model was set up to show Britain’s CURRENT state of no containment or lockdown, which is why the death toll was so high. It was the worst-case scenario, which was the path Britain was taking at the time.
However the new numbers are because of the updated plan with social distancing and lockdown. He wasn’t “wrong” about anything. The model was simply updated with current data.
In other words people are pushing this as if it was a farce, but in reality it’s displaying how our containment efforts will help stop the spread of the disease.
Our side is slowly succumbing to fake news, because for some reason the only thing some people can see here is conspiracy, instead of a friggin global pandemic.
He actually did admit they were wrong about how much the virus has spread, which is huge. That was one of the key reasons a competing Oxford study predicting much less risk,
https://www.dailywire.com/news/oxford-epidemiologist-heres-why-that-doomsday-model-is-likely-way-off
"Our side", who do you think you are fooling?
Here's the original paper:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
He didn't realize his "doomsday" predictions were faulty. He never called them doomsday predictions. He used a model with variable infection rates and mortality rates to create a baseline worst case scenario so he could show how mitigation could stop the hospital systems from being overwhelmed.
Trump and Pence's 15 Days to Stop The Spread is based on this same model.
Now that they have actual data and closed the schools and limited spread factors, the model reflects the decrease in projected deaths.
Very dishonest portrayal of what happened. The 15 Day plan is exactly based on this. Trump closing down travel and the states closing the schools are what will keep the numbers low. It's what Japan did.
No reason to shit on this guy from the college. Read the report yourself:
Bingo.
A local radio station was still touting those numbers this morning.
Whoopsie doopsie, haha! Sorry about that economy everybody! Everyone makes mistakes, right? Live and let live, haha!
Why are you all getting rope?