I agree but we will need to see where the numbers top out. Right now they are still rising. The doom and gloom group think they will hit say 10k a day and last for 200 days..
I think its way more likely that we have somewhere between 60 - 120k deaths from this. A bad flu year is 60k. So pretty close to the flu. But untill the numbers plateau politicaly its going to be hard to restart things.
A prudent plan (to me) would be to bring the country back online in roughly reverse order by population density. So get the least dense states online first (those would be the flyover states, BTW). Quarantine some of the dense, populous, hot spots, and bring things online slowly. Slowly is the key, which is why terms like “it’s over by Easter” is not really correct.
But let’s start reversing the most onerous constraints by Easter and take things slowly. If we keep our old and vulnerable sequestered we should be in good shape.
You are right - it’ll be months before the last areas get back to normal, and when we all can once again pile into a crowded concert arena or dance floor is anyone’s guess.
But let’s not lose sight of the fact that the only goal here is not to overtax our hospitals. People will get sick, some will die. If they die because the hospital was too crowded to take them in, we screwed up.
But the other sicknesses are just part of the normal flu season, and are required if we, as a ‘hurd’, are to build up an immunity to it.
Agree with everything you said but the “it’s over by Easter” thing, if you are referring to Trump saying that, thats not what he says exactly. He wants to start OPENING things up by Easter...no chance in hell this will even be close to over by Easter.
I agree but we will need to see where the numbers top out. Right now they are still rising. The doom and gloom group think they will hit say 10k a day and last for 200 days..
I think its way more likely that we have somewhere between 60 - 120k deaths from this. A bad flu year is 60k. So pretty close to the flu. But untill the numbers plateau politicaly its going to be hard to restart things.
A prudent plan (to me) would be to bring the country back online in roughly reverse order by population density. So get the least dense states online first (those would be the flyover states, BTW). Quarantine some of the dense, populous, hot spots, and bring things online slowly. Slowly is the key, which is why terms like “it’s over by Easter” is not really correct.
But let’s start reversing the most onerous constraints by Easter and take things slowly. If we keep our old and vulnerable sequestered we should be in good shape.
You are right - it’ll be months before the last areas get back to normal, and when we all can once again pile into a crowded concert arena or dance floor is anyone’s guess.
But let’s not lose sight of the fact that the only goal here is not to overtax our hospitals. People will get sick, some will die. If they die because the hospital was too crowded to take them in, we screwed up.
But the other sicknesses are just part of the normal flu season, and are required if we, as a ‘hurd’, are to build up an immunity to it.
Agree with everything you said but the “it’s over by Easter” thing, if you are referring to Trump saying that, thats not what he says exactly. He wants to start OPENING things up by Easter...no chance in hell this will even be close to over by Easter.