This is the 'Chris Murray' model they keep talking about- https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Also keep in mind this guy is funded by Bill Gates http://www.healthdata.org/about/director-statement

The announcement of the 10-year, $279-million investment in IHME by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation this year provides a moment in time to reflect and to look ahead. The Institute has grown from a core of three initial members in 2007 to a staff of more than 300; developed a powerful and constantly innovating research infrastructure; built a global network exceeding 2,000 collaborators; and perhaps most importantly, strengthened the field of health metrics science.