posted ago by thupertheriousth
+359 / -0
The coming cascade of economic devastation will be worse than the actual virus if we don’t get back to work soon. It’s not about the banks, it’s not about the ultra wealthy, it’s about you and your livelihood. The machine must function to keep the boat afloat, otherwise we’ll all go down with the ship. Many of you may not agree, but it’s the reality of the situation. The path we’re on is not sustainable. Unfortunately, this post will probably get deleted.
I think most people agree with this. I know I do.
is that unpopular? i feel like more people on here feel like that's the case. I think a month more of this and we will experience a depression
Apparently so, I posted something similar yesterday and it lasted all of about 10 minutes before it was kicked. I don’t really understand why we seem to be back on the lockdown and bailout bandwagon.
I think this site is suffering some long term effects of trying to court Bernie Bros. There's an awful lot of "only the government can save us" attitudes running around here lately.
Yeah yesterday I was told I was going to die from getting take-out food because "Carlos Coronavirus" was making my burger. Was this on Reddit? Nope--here on td.win.
I'm trying to keep what businesses I can alive and people I can employed and paid. I've been giving out 50% tips a lot of the time too. I'm still taking precautions but I'm not going to shut down because I'm afraid this virus is going to kill me. We spend our entire lives doing things that might kill us.
Except spreading the virus is going to kill other people too.
I'm so fucking sick of being told how I need to do a bunch of shit to not kill people. The places are open. I'm following the damn rules. What the fuck more does everyone want? I guess I should just do the world a favor and off myself. After all, not many would really give a shit about me being gone anyway and everyone else would be saved of the travesty of me spreading this shit.
Exactly! Completely agree with your sentiment
Yeah I've just gotten irritated with how this mindset has bled over to this site. It's like there's the Corona Cops going around now throwing out shame and trying to use Trump as a shield. These things I talk about doing are completely and totally within the guidelines of the President and my local officials. I'm doing nothing wrong.
THIS THIS THIS. I have been reporting them all day every day and they are still here. They POLICE this site for any threads or posts questioning the fucking narrative.
that's what folks don't realize that are 100% ok with all this quarantine nonsense and are afraid to even question it. This cannot keep up and keep getting extended. At some point we're either going to have to have a major breakthrough in this and the virus magically starts to fizzle out after running its course, and all the restrictions get lifted, OR all business ceases and we're all out of work and living in poverty. We simply cannot just keep "waiting it out" indefinitely. And we sure as hell can't be doing this as a response the next time there's a disease going around.
Thats the thing. These stimulus packages have so much crap in them, when the one thing it ought to invlude is making sure this never happens again. Eg. The country should shut down international travel within 72 hours. Quarrantine everyone who comes back in that time. And mandatory quarantine for anyone who came two weeks prior. Not fun, but would allow 98% of us to go on with our lives.
Exactly. The world cannot stay shut until next year when vaccines arrive. The original idea as I understood it, was to allow for hospitals to prepare for the "worse cases", which are the the smaller percentage of the population whose bodies won't respond well. Then open slowly, with those that may not handle as well (older, sicker people who probably wouldn't be out in the work force anyway still under quarantine) while the world starts back up.
And here soon, not just in the U.S., there will have to be a workaround...a combination of selective quarantining (elderly, sick) and the rest of the world moving on somewhat while still practicing good hygiene and distancing.
Again, the world is going to have to figure out something halfway because it cannot remain stopped until 18 months from now. It won't.
Totally agree, this isn't the first or the worst viral outbreak this country has gone through. The only way we got through the previous ones so well is that all the healthy people were allowed to work through it.
How many small retailers and private business owners can take a full month with no income? Seems like a lot of germaphobic assholes are shouting down from their high horse after they've had years worth of job security and good fortune enabling them to save up to weather the storm, but this is literally ruining a lot of people who were just starting out. It takes YEARS to save up a few months salary, and the less you earn the longer it takes.
I'm already seeing tons of small local stores shuttered that probably aren't going to open their doors ever again thanks to this lunacy. They've already begun pulling the signs off of the store fronts. No paltry welfare check is going to undo that kind of life-altering damage.
I'm sick of it. I'm tired of trying to be tactfull. I don't care about your 86 year old granny with a history of lung problems. She should ALWAYS be extra careful of contracting colds, but no matter what you do, SHE IS GOING TO DIE. Everyone is eventually going to die. That's no excuse for spreading your personal fears and tragedies all over the rest of the country.
We've effectively turned something that MIGHT have affected hundreds of thousands of people into something that's negatively affecting all 350 MILLION of us. Good job geniuses. You've effectively socialized despair. Now EVERYONE gets to share in the pain and suffering.
This is gold.
It's not just your 86-year-old granny. Everyone is at risk of serious illness or dying. Younger people are just less so. We don't know exactly how many, or why.
This is no longer a theoretical statistical issue for me. I have a family member that went from experiencing his first symptoms of COVID-19 to being hospitalized in 4 days. He was healthy, and under 50. He's stable now (but still in the hospital), and if this happens to too many people at the same time, we will have a problem.
After crunching all the data years from now, we might have some idea of who is/was actually at risk, whether it is genetic, environmental, or even something we can only estimate: like the size of the viral load at infection.
If, if, if.. It's always ifs. The end of the world is perpetually a week away. What if this thing that happened to some people happens to ALL people, then we'd be screwed, but it hasn't so we're not. What's the point of trying to prevent it from directly impacting more people if the only way to do that is to make sure it indirectly impacts ALL people?
Everyone is ALWAYS at risk from something. There's always an ongoing outbreak, an extreme storm, earthquakes, wildfires, hurricanes, volcanoes, blizzards, famines, and wars. The only way we reduce the impact of the disaster is to MINIMIZE the number of people negatively affected, not MAXIMIZE it.
You're right, we won't have any real numbers for at least three years when they finally compile and publicize the all-cause mortality rate and demographics breakdowns. So since we DON'T have accurate data, it's no more logical to presume the worst case scenario than it is to presume the best case scenario. We have no comparative data to illustrate whether these measures do anything. Some of them, like reducing store hours and setting curfews, likely make things worse as they force more people to do their shopping at the same time.
Over reacting is not a zero-cost proposition. COVID-19 is far from being the only, or even biggest problem in most people's lives right now. It doesn't matter if it's 100 people, 1000, people or 100,000 people directly impacted, 300,000,000 people shouldn't be forced to suffer along side them. There is no situation so bad that mass panic doesn't make it worse.
Explain that to the families of the additional people that would die with your strategy. "Just let them die" is not acceptable.
I've posted it in another response, but it bears repeating: if Trump had adopted your strategy (and the UK almost did) instead of the same kinds of measures being implemented by most other Western democracies, every single death would have been blamed on him.
Biden would be President in 2020, and his VP would be President in 2021.
I don't have to "explain" to anyone. That's the point your missing. Those imaginary dead people aren't your problem. That's the collectivist mentality in a nutshell. We should all make our own lives worse in order to maybe help some imaginary or potential other group better off. And of course it's the politicians and bureaucrats that get to decide exactly what is or isn't in the best interest of all those hypothetically dead people.
So how about YOU explain to all those very real unemployed people? How about you explain to the people wondering how their going to pay off the business loans they took out now that their dreams of running their own business have been destroyed? YOU explain why YOU get to decide whose lives are worth helping and whose are worth spitting on because you only care about one problem at a time.
The idiots are ALWAYS going to blame Trump. They're going to blame Trump for every dead body whether it's 100,000 or only 100, and they're going to blame Trump for the unemployment number skyrocketing, and the stock market collapsing, and all the kids being out of school and failing, and all the people with non-COVID 19 illnesses dieing because all the resources are being hoarded just in case it gets bad NEXT week.
So stop spreading the panic and start spreading realistic, practical caution so President Trump can do his job and get us back to work like he's been saying he wants to this whole time. It's the stupid governors that have shut everything down, not President Trump.
Yes, it's the governors that are doing this, after making the same political calculus. You should be complaining to them, rather than posting anonymously in a place they won't be reading.
But, I support what Trump is doing. He has explained why, and about the only thing I would have done differently is to extend the "slow the spread" guidelines for another 15 days, rather than 30.
We'll never know if it was more than was needed. But at this point, simply coming in under the death projections will be a win. I think that's possible, and even likely. We have the advantage of trailing the outbreaks in Europe and learning from them... especially the research and clinical studies they have done.
I also support what President Trump is trying to do, namely stop people panicking and get us back to work as soon as possible.
We never ever get to know if the government overrach was needed. It's always, "it could have been worse". That's why it's bad practice to compare reality to imaginary worst case scenarios.
Believe me I AM complaining to the governors, but the more people there are spreading the doom and gloom message, the harder it is for President Trump to justify declaring the emergency handled.
That's why the usual suspects in media and politics are screaming that he's not doing enough and it's going to get worse. People here aren't helping if they're spreading the same defeatist fear mongering the anti-Trump brigade is spreading.
I think the caution against doom and gloom goes both ways.
I don't think it's doom and gloom to be realistic about the number of deaths we will probably see. It's not difficult to look at the current trajectory and and make a rough forecast.
But conversely, I don't think it's productive to predict that our economy is going to crash. I think a recession is inevitable, but it remains to see how long a recovery takes. And the Trump administration is doing a lot to help small business, instead of just the usual big company bailouts.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/31/heres-how-to-apply-for-a-coronavirus-loan-for-your-small-business/
There's a link embedded in that paragraph to a FAQ:
https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/ac3081f6-14ae-4e6f-9197-172ede28badd/71AB6CB05A08E369E0D488A80B3874A5.faqs---paycheck-protection-program-faqs-for-small-businesses.pdf
This is for up to 8 weeks of expenses.
There are other businesses that are eligible and sliding terms of forgiveness if you don't keep all employees. The article at the first link is worth a read.
Yup years from now when were living in a shithole with millions of people trying to recover economically from this I'll feel better knowing why some people got sick and others didn't. Those facts should help everyones retirement and savings recover...
The issue is not who gets sick. It's who dies, when they had a chance to live.
The political calculus is pretty simple: if Trump followed your strategy while the rest of the western countries implemented more restrictive measures, he would have been blamed for every single death.
Joe Biden would be President in 2020, and his VP would be President in 2021.
I agree, we can recover from an economic recession (and there's no one better to do this than DJT) but the deaths would play on cable news nonstop until the election, I just hope after this month we can get people back to work and let those at risk stay at home if that's their decision, not the governments decision.
I hope for that, too. It may take a while to crank everything up, and there may be some sectors that remain affected.
I think mass public gatherings (concerts, etc.) will be restricted for a while. But, people should be able to get back to work, and even go to restaurants as long as they don't pack them like sardines.
Unfortunately, it was the handful of people that ignored the voluntary "social distancing" guidelines that led to the mandatory ones. It's always a few people that screw it up for everyone.
agree with your sentiment but flu is 0.1% this is probably somewhere between 0.6% - 1%
link?
1% mortality is about 10X the mortality of seasonal influenza.
But, let's do some numbers: if 66 million people catch this (20% of the population, and not unreasonable based on past infectious respiratory diseases), a 1% mortality means 660,000 dead.
If Trump had done nothing and let the disease progress while other western democracies had taken more restrictive measures, the Misleadia would have blamed Trump for every single death. And Biden would be President in 2020.
The long term mortality rate is 100%. Everybody dies It's not the government's place to try to stop all causes of death. 660,000 dead isn't a big number in a country that nominally has more than 2.8 MILLION people die every year. Throw in the fact that some unspecified number of those 660,000 would have died from something else if not this, and you're really over reacting to such a number.
NO one's saying it isn't sad that people die, or that we shouldn't each be taking reasonable precautions for ourselves. The issue is whether the extreme government over reach on the part of Governors, Representatives, and Senators isn't causing even more harm than the virus will for ZERO guarantee that it's any benefit to those that will get sick.
Because guess what? This has all happened before. The novel H1N1 viral strain in 2009 came and went with almost no one noticing other than those directly impacted and Obama's reelection campaign chances weren't impacted at all.
That virus was explicitly more dangerous to children due to a lack of cross-reactive antibody reaction, but we didn't close down every single school in the nation, just a few local schools in certain highest risk areas as decided by local government. Everywhere else it was advised sick people stay home, and particularly at risk people take extra precautions.
No one said Trump should have done nothing, we're saying President Trump shouldn't have to also be dealing with the moronic authoritarian, economy killing decisions of a bunch of state and local governments egged on by the panic mongers and hypochondriac germaphobes.
Mortality rates vary by age. When someone dies prematurely, it's considered a failure, not inevitable.
You know as well as I that there's a world of difference between how Obama was treated and Trump will be treated. It's not fair, but it's reality.
Yeah, it's not fair, and it's never going to be fair, so why should we be whining and scraping about how they're going to blame Trump when they're going to blame Trump anywhere? That's letting them control you.
Who gets to decide what is or isn't "premature". People of all ages die all the time. That's not a "failure" of the government, that's life. There's nothing magical about dying of SARS2 compared to dying of any other disease. It's no more tragic, nor is at any more likely.
My local clinic isn't testing for the virus, even for people with symptoms, they are simply telling them to go home for 3 days and reevaluate. Is it worth gambling the entire economy on a model where we have bad data? With a 2 week incubation period shouldn't we have "flattened the curve" enough to get back to work and restart the economy? It's a tough spot and I know the media will blame trump for either people dying or the coming recession but the whole situation fucking sucks.
I hope so. I think it will depend on the success of medical intervention. And we are still developing new ways to do so.
The lag between infection and death will make it hard to predict. Deaths should peak at some interval after the number of new cases peaks, unless we can leverage that time to our advantage.
True. There's a lag time from infection, to first symptoms, to diagnosis. Incubation periods are estimated to be from 3-14 days (although the longer ones may be outliers, average was 5 days, I think). I have a family member that developed symptoms but couldn't get tested until he was hospitalized 4 days later. Then, he has to wait for 2 more days.
But, I didn't express the lag very well: people aren't simply keeling over and dying. They are in critical condition in the hospital for some time. I think the first community transmitted case in my county didn't pass away until at least two weeks after diagnosis.
Case mortality rate is 5% globally now.
it's going up, not down.
That’s bullshit
I can't give you exact numbers, but hydroxylchloroquine is not safe for everyone. It can't be used to treat people with certain medical conditions.
At the moment, people that have been hospitalized can get hydroxylchloroquine, with the possible exception of NY, because they limit it to use in a clinical trial (which means you might get a placebo). I hope that NY isn't forcing people that are already seriously ill to participate.
This is unfortunate, because it appears to work best with early intervention. I hope the supply shortages can be resolved soon, and doctors can go back to prescribing it under "off label use".
I’m not trying to be critical of people’s opinions, every one seems to feel a certain way. However, at some point, sooner rather than later, we’re going to have to set aside our emotions for logic and rationality. I agree, all the deaths are tragic, but even on the high end 100k plus, that would pale in comparison to the amount of suffering and devastation of an elongated economic shutdown would create.
100k is the lowest of the low end if we continue mitigation through the end of April.
Trump has already taken steps to ensure that we have a 3 to 4 month buffer, if we need that long. The people of the country--and the economic demand they have--are wound like a spring. The economy will rebound FAST when Trump gives the okay for people to get back to normal.
Stop panicking like we're all doomed if we don't break from Trump's plan before it's played out. Some of you are worse than the fear-mongering Press Core.
Relax. It's going to be okay, centipedes.
More of this...less hand wringing
I'm OK with the social distancing because it shows that we're doing something, and people aren't going to panic and demand the government do even more onerous things when hospitals start to fill up. It's better for people to get used to it now than to take to the mattresses in a panic when their city gets 10,000 new cases a day.
That said, the shutdown can't last forever. We're buying time. For what?
Not for a vaccine. That could be years away (or never). Humanity wasn't able to develop a malaria vaccine until very recently, and it's only in pilot stages. Malaria is probably the deadliest disease in human history. It's not for lack of effort or urgency that we didn't get a vaccine faster.
Not for herd immunity. You need 50%+ of the population to have been exposed. All the steps we're taking are instead limiting the number of people who get exposed to the virus.
As I see it, we're buying time for three things:
Getting our hospitals prepared for a large number of cases, including the manufacture of ventilators.
Evidence that there's a drug that can prevent exposure from developing into a disease. We all have high hopes for hydroxychloroquine, but most of the evidence has shown that it has helped already sick patients recover faster. The jury's still out on whether it works as a prophylactic. And there's the time needed to scale up our manufacturing capacity if we're going to be passing this stuff out like M&Ms.
Evidence that there are less drastic steps that can be taken to mitigate the spread of the virus in a meaningful way. If we figure out that wearing a mask accomplishes 80% of what social distancing does, then we can end social distancing, accept that there will be a slightly higher number of cases, and just get everyone to wear a mask to work. And of course it'll take time to scale up our mask production, too.
By the end of April, we need other things to throw at COVID other than social distancing. I hope those things are increased hospital capacity, HCQ, and masks. (From the latest information I've seen, warm weather doesn't really move the needle by itself.) If we get to the end of the month and the experts are all saying "social distancing is the only thing that works even a little bit" then we're screwed and I'll be pissed. At that point I think people will go into YOLO mode anyway and start doing whatever they want. If the governors get aggressive and start arresting people saying that we need to stay on lockdown until the end of August or some bullshit, I think there will be massive social unrest across the country. But hopefully it doesn't come to that.
That is my problem at the state level. They are just making this shit up as they go and saying "we didn't have time to figure everything out! We're saving lives!!" And legit no analysis whatsoever of the economic ramifications has been taken in to account. Plenty of taxpayer dollars going to every social program under the sun right now though!
I mean, let’s put aside all the lock downs and restrictions and such. It is what it is but let’s remove that for a moment. What I’m not seeing so much from the state and local governments is a plan to phase back in the work force. I’m not taking immediately, but still at least have a damn plan instead of just hunkering down and making random proclamations.
It's not that I don't agree but the train of thought is as if there's no possible other way to change our ways and working. It has A LOT to do with the banks... I realize most of us don't want to get dragged into a fight about how things work and how the banks are controlling everything but it is a big component as to what is going on with how you live your everyday life and why work is able to grind so suddenly to a halt for most people.
Its not unpopular.
Capitalism is a way of life.. it goes hand in hand with free markets and overall life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
I've read a lot of history lately. They didn't even act like this during the Spanish Flu... yeah they stopped Church and school services to some extent, but they didn't shut down all commerce.
In some places, they did. But, it was done by the local community, not the federal government.
Some of the measures sound a lot like our "social distancing": wear masks, don't shake hands, closing public places, stay indoors.
Some businesses closed because most of their employees were sick. In some places, they were short of workers to harvest crops.
This is just one of the many articles I found:
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
One interesting point: this was wartime. The media was self-censoring bad news. So, some communities didn't realize how bad it was elsewhere until it hit them.
Full disclosure: I’m in a sector considered critical infrastructure according to CISA. I’m still getting paid still working, and in a comfortable financial position, but that’s not the point. There are tens of millions of people who aren’t. That’s where my concern lies, not for me, but for them. Let’s face reality, people in the food service industry aren’t independently wealthy, and m not denigrating them by any stretch, but that’s typicality a paycheck to paycheck lifestyle. We’ve all been there. Those folks along with the self employed, small business owners, unskilled laborers, will be the most affected. There’s uncertainty, which detaches us from logic. With no clear end date and no clear benchmarks set for recovery, we’re compounding the problem. The economy is more than just numbers on the Dow scrolling across the screen, it’s everywhere, it’s all around you, it’s your lifestyle, it’s your livelihood. People will coalesce around hope. Unfortunately we’re not seeing much of that, just doom and gloom on a 24 hour news cycle and from the democrats. I truly hope we will change course as a society before we drive everything we’ve worked so hard for right off a cliff.
The overwhelming majority of people get no symptoms or symptoms no worse than a common cold. It makes little sense to keep everyone home because the virus is deadly to some. It makes way more sense to keep the elderly and at risk at home, let the young and healthy keep working. Not only would it keep the economy running, but it would build herd immunity many times faster than the current plan, which would ultimately make those at risk from the disease safer.
The issue, as Trump and his team has explained many times... is that if we just 'only have the elderly stay home', hospitals across the country will be flooded beyond capacity. That is the danger. Even in younger people, many of them require hospitalization and I don't think you comprehend how many hospitals beds are out there.
Ha, no, I’ve been saying this for weeks, check my post history. I’ve just been seeing a lot of waffling.
Oh I don’t disagree at all. I think at this point in our society, there is certainly an evil and a coordinated effort on the part of certain people to burn down the system entirely and build it back up in their image.
I agree with you. Several weeks ago, I had posted that I had gone to Disney, a movie theater, restaurants, and shopping - and this was well before the major shutdowns. I was bashed and shamed by someone who told me I was worse than a Democrat. Yesterday, we went out to pick up food, and the number of cars on the road felt like rush hour. I think more people will start coming out. I think there's been about five cases in the county where I live.
Everyone agrees the shutdown is bad for the economy.
It's the chicken little monologs that are unpopular.
We are going to come roaring back. Watch it happen.
Of course I believe this and have been saying so for two weeks now.
I think most here actually agree with this
Scrolled thread for "straw-man" shills and "personal coronavirus doom scenario anecdotal" shills. Wasn't disappointed.
I agree, OP!
Agreed. We're going to wind up in a recession or depression. Those hard times kill people too.
Its not unpopular. I agree 100%. Here is the problem - the death rate has to AT LEAST FLATTEN before he can end it.
That's just the political reality of the situation. If he ends it early - and the deaths rise - all future deaths get pinned on Trump.
There is no good choice for him here.
The "ultra wealthy" will enjoy being parts of the sequel to World War Z...
You are right. The longer the economy stagnates, the harder it will be to get it working again. Coronavirus is just the flu, and now there are medicines to get over it fast.
Lets get back to work NOW
It's unpopular because it's anti-Trump fear porn. Trump's approval ratings are the highest they've ever been.
The stock market dropped 70% in 2001 and 60% in 2008.
We've lived through recessions and depressions before.
The economy is going to come back because we're entrepreneurs. There will be other companies that will be hiring.
This is going to be the biggest opportunity in your life to start a new business and become wealthy.