This is not the case with covid. It came out of no where, shows exponential growth and a proclivity to cause symptoms worse than the flu.
You don't know that, and in fact there's a lot of info coming to light that China lied about it and covered it up for far too long. There is a very high degree of likelihood that the virus has been spreading at a more steady rate over the fall and into winter, just like influenza.
You would have to believe that the medical community in the US did not realize they were seeing a new corona virus until after China. You're in the realm of speculation there.
I grant you that the numbers are are going to be fuzzy - it's always hard to grasp the extent of a virus in the middle of its run. We are seeing more cases as we do more testing. However, we do know that it shows exponential growth and estimate that every infected person will infect 2-3 other people. The deaths per day seem to show this. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
You forget that until China went public with this, people were dying from "influenza and pneumonia". How many of them were coronavirus? Since the genome hadn't been mapped and there was no test, there's literally no way to estimate this. Assuming the Chinese were completely honest, we still didn't have a test here to attribute "P&I" deaths (Pneumnia and Influenza) to coronavirus, hence the spike in deaths that rise with the positive tests that we are seeing spike in the same trend.
What I'm saying is it's been here and the same vulnerable population has been dying of it, we're only seeing it spike because we know about it and can now test for it. 5k deaths so far compared to 80k P&I deaths a year usually. When this is all said and done we'll see how much of an impact on regular P&I deaths it really has had.
We typically test for flu, so you can likely rule out those cases. It is possible that cases of pneumonia could slip by (since covid causes pneumonia and that is what kills you), but the CDC monitors deaths related to both and watches for spikes. Assuming an average flu and pneumonia season combined with undiagnosed cases of covid, this would have garnered CDC interest in any real numbers.
It is a more straight forward assertion that most cases of covid related deaths have been caught in the numbers. The trend lines then make sense. It's not like we are seeing a decrease in the number of flu or pneumonia related deaths as the number of confirmed covid deaths rise.[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm]
We track all of the numbers related to viral deaths to catch unknown viral outbreaks in relation to seasonal averages. We'd see a pretender virus (covid pretending to be pneumonia or flu) by the uptick in those compared to what we historically see.
You don't know that, and in fact there's a lot of info coming to light that China lied about it and covered it up for far too long. There is a very high degree of likelihood that the virus has been spreading at a more steady rate over the fall and into winter, just like influenza.
You would have to believe that the medical community in the US did not realize they were seeing a new corona virus until after China. You're in the realm of speculation there.
I grant you that the numbers are are going to be fuzzy - it's always hard to grasp the extent of a virus in the middle of its run. We are seeing more cases as we do more testing. However, we do know that it shows exponential growth and estimate that every infected person will infect 2-3 other people. The deaths per day seem to show this. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
There's no steady rate to those curves.
You forget that until China went public with this, people were dying from "influenza and pneumonia". How many of them were coronavirus? Since the genome hadn't been mapped and there was no test, there's literally no way to estimate this. Assuming the Chinese were completely honest, we still didn't have a test here to attribute "P&I" deaths (Pneumnia and Influenza) to coronavirus, hence the spike in deaths that rise with the positive tests that we are seeing spike in the same trend.
What I'm saying is it's been here and the same vulnerable population has been dying of it, we're only seeing it spike because we know about it and can now test for it. 5k deaths so far compared to 80k P&I deaths a year usually. When this is all said and done we'll see how much of an impact on regular P&I deaths it really has had.
We typically test for flu, so you can likely rule out those cases. It is possible that cases of pneumonia could slip by (since covid causes pneumonia and that is what kills you), but the CDC monitors deaths related to both and watches for spikes. Assuming an average flu and pneumonia season combined with undiagnosed cases of covid, this would have garnered CDC interest in any real numbers.
It is a more straight forward assertion that most cases of covid related deaths have been caught in the numbers. The trend lines then make sense. It's not like we are seeing a decrease in the number of flu or pneumonia related deaths as the number of confirmed covid deaths rise.[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm]
We track all of the numbers related to viral deaths to catch unknown viral outbreaks in relation to seasonal averages. We'd see a pretender virus (covid pretending to be pneumonia or flu) by the uptick in those compared to what we historically see.
When you compare the number of deaths, remember that you are comparing a flu season to a virus that is new. It takes time for a virus to catch up to number that took the flu a whole year to produce. However, we have an average of 508 people per day die from the flu. Yesterday, covid killed 1040. And the context is worse. The numbers of those dying every day is greater than the number from the day before.[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/01/coronavirus-kills-1-000-single-day-u-s-double-flu/5100905002/] [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/]