From what I’ve seen and what other have posted here they just keep adjusting the models predictions to match what has already happened, not the other way around...
Except their models are based on the assumption that the infection started in early March when official testing began, and it should be on a parabolic curve upward from there. However, as the numbers keep coming in lower than expected, especially on the west coast, the model cant account for the possibility that this is the tail end of a much larger epidemic that started in January and peaked in February.
I have been watching this closely, and it seems they just keep moving the goal post or "lengthening" the curve to show a slower growth but still showing it going up to a supposed horrible peak some time in the distant future.
Its like there could be 10 deaths/day for an entire week and they would still predict 100 deaths a day in say two weeks or three weeks. What really happened on the west coast is this thing hit January/February. Here in Oregon the E-rooms were full and ventilators were at capacity late February. Elderly relatives got bounced around E-rooms several times to find a ventilator system (they survived fortunately).
Because of this we are actually already on the tail end of the infection despite the increasing testing availability showing an increase (actually flat at this point).
This is funded by the Gates Foundation, the same guy who wants to give you a bio tracker to make sure you're worthy of citizenship and shut down the economy for months. I guess OP suckles at the teet of Bill Gates.
I rescind my comment previously written here. A better look has me rethinking any praise or admiration.
(PREVIOUSLY: "I really appreciate their frank assessment of their own methods. No politics, just here are the numbers and here's what we're thinking they mean.")
I'm hearing that 98-99% of COVID-19 deaths were people who would have died within the next few months anyway. Also a lot of anecdotes about any death that can possibly be attributed to COVID-19 going down as the cause of death, ie. if someone dies of pneumonia, it suddenly becomes Corona. Or even if they are positive for Corona, no effort is made to determine if co-morbidities may have been the primary cause of death. (Remember, many if not most are completely asymptomatic.) Young people dying from COVID-19 often described as "otherwise healthy"—read down the article and they mention how they were obese or on a regimen of "medicinal whiskey" or had STAGE 4 PANCREATIC CANCER.
From what I’ve seen and what other have posted here they just keep adjusting the models predictions to match what has already happened, not the other way around...
Except their models are based on the assumption that the infection started in early March when official testing began, and it should be on a parabolic curve upward from there. However, as the numbers keep coming in lower than expected, especially on the west coast, the model cant account for the possibility that this is the tail end of a much larger epidemic that started in January and peaked in February.
"My model predicts Biden will receive 27% to 61% of the national popular vote. He received 29%. We nailed it!!"
By the way, this model will fail badly soon. LA Co. has had four days of linear growth in the total death count at about 10 per day.
But muh ekspoenenshewl groot will show you!
I have been watching this closely, and it seems they just keep moving the goal post or "lengthening" the curve to show a slower growth but still showing it going up to a supposed horrible peak some time in the distant future.
Its like there could be 10 deaths/day for an entire week and they would still predict 100 deaths a day in say two weeks or three weeks. What really happened on the west coast is this thing hit January/February. Here in Oregon the E-rooms were full and ventilators were at capacity late February. Elderly relatives got bounced around E-rooms several times to find a ventilator system (they survived fortunately).
Because of this we are actually already on the tail end of the infection despite the increasing testing availability showing an increase (actually flat at this point).
I think the thesis that this virus has been here on the west coast for a while is legit.
This is funded by the Gates Foundation, the same guy who wants to give you a bio tracker to make sure you're worthy of citizenship and shut down the economy for months. I guess OP suckles at the teet of Bill Gates.
The chart is a little like the hurricane cone maps. It changes daily but narrows down more accurately as time pass.
Here's the latest updates from the IHME site. Very good news. Trump's plan is working.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
I rescind my comment previously written here. A better look has me rethinking any praise or admiration.
(PREVIOUSLY: "I really appreciate their frank assessment of their own methods. No politics, just here are the numbers and here's what we're thinking they mean.")
Its funded by Gates Foundation. They have an agenda. Its one world government, no borders, and add the progressive wish list.
Oh, well, shit. I'm a sucker for what looked like good analytics.
I'm hearing that 98-99% of COVID-19 deaths were people who would have died within the next few months anyway. Also a lot of anecdotes about any death that can possibly be attributed to COVID-19 going down as the cause of death, ie. if someone dies of pneumonia, it suddenly becomes Corona. Or even if they are positive for Corona, no effort is made to determine if co-morbidities may have been the primary cause of death. (Remember, many if not most are completely asymptomatic.) Young people dying from COVID-19 often described as "otherwise healthy"—read down the article and they mention how they were obese or on a regimen of "medicinal whiskey" or had STAGE 4 PANCREATIC CANCER.