From what I’ve seen and what other have posted here they just keep adjusting the models predictions to match what has already happened, not the other way around...
Except their models are based on the assumption that the infection started in early March when official testing began, and it should be on a parabolic curve upward from there. However, as the numbers keep coming in lower than expected, especially on the west coast, the model cant account for the possibility that this is the tail end of a much larger epidemic that started in January and peaked in February.
From what I’ve seen and what other have posted here they just keep adjusting the models predictions to match what has already happened, not the other way around...
Except their models are based on the assumption that the infection started in early March when official testing began, and it should be on a parabolic curve upward from there. However, as the numbers keep coming in lower than expected, especially on the west coast, the model cant account for the possibility that this is the tail end of a much larger epidemic that started in January and peaked in February.