Couple of items:
Most reports are that when a patient goes on a ventilator vast majority never come off.
Prediction models indicating a ventilator shortage only account for total uses. Does not account for the fact that being on a ventilator is not a long term solution. It either works or does not work in a short time frame. Then that asset goes back into the inventory. From what I can see the models only recognize a single use of the ventilator.
But the bigger factor is ventilators are not answer medically. This story is emerging quickly.
If you're going on a ventilator, there is an 80% chance that you're completely fucked
Everyone but Fauci seems to agree that treat early with HCQ regimen and the ventilator panic goes away....
Yeah cuz the minute any panic starts to go away, he starts to lose access to the world stage.
He's not wrong about everything and he's certainly a credible authority on infectious diseases, but this is a good example of why you never let these single-issue experts make country policy
I think it is 80% get mild symptoms, 20% get ICU. Of the 20%: half get intubated (ventilators) because of pneumonia. So that's 10% overall.
Of the 50% that get intubated (depending on country), 20% die... if my math is correct, that's 2% overall.
So for every 10 intubations, 8 will recover.
Ventilators are important.
I haven't been following the math lately, so my percentages may be wrong, but the general concept is sound.
the ventilator demand will rise when we start giving everyone the drugs before they reach critical condition and more of the patients recover form being on the vent
but your point is true and well taken, the theoretical need for ventilators isn't based on a realistic calculation it's based off of the assumption that everyone will be in critical condition all at once and we need a ventilator for every critical case
The cure should be administered well before anyone is forced onto a vent. At this point, anyone who actually is allowed to die from actual COVID is essentially murdered. I hope the the wrongful death lawsuits pile up against the government.
Maybe you're failing grass the point that the numbers of people needing the ventilators vastly exceeds the amount of ventilators on hand if you have 10 ventilators in your hospital and 20 patients needing them what's your course of action? This is why they're calling it a shortage not because someone goes on and it can come off and use it again it's because of the amount of people needing it at the same time
The evidence is to the contrary. There is not an instance yet of someone being denied a ventilator.
Ny has thousands warehoused for the peak!
Understand that going on a ventilator is temporary. It either works or does not. Then the ventilator is returned to stock. It does not go away. The models do not account for the time frame of the ventilator use. Its not permanent. But the models that project ventilator requirements do not account for this very real fact.
I think one hospital in NY is running out of ventilators- there was a profile in NYT (I know, I know). Even so, it doesn’t seem extreme at this point.
Locally, hospitals are using anesthesia machines and importing ventilators from other places but haven’t “run out” yet.
With shutting down tons of surgeries, there is a lot of ventilator capacity that comes online.
Hey, can you point me to the models where you see that they don't account for people coming off? you're right, people might die after being ventilated - something that can happen rapidly; or people might stay on for a week or two and get extubated. Either way, the ventilator can be re-used. The question is how rapidly do the ill people come into the ICU - do they hit all at once, or is it spread out over a few months.
Correct. I'm suggested the average time of use for a ventilator. I'm just pointed out that the model only predicts the amount needed by a certain date. That amount climbs continually as ventilators that are feed up are not considered. The fact is, use of the ventilator is temporary. So for a model to be correct it would have to account for revolving inventory.
I've tested the model for Louisiana and it is consistently about 50% off on ventilators.