According to the official projections, there are supposed to be 19,946 covid-19 deaths by next Friday. So let's round it up and say 20,000 even by Friday April, 10th. As of today the figure is about 6,900 with about half the cases in NY/NJ.
Mark down in the comments whether you are taking the over or under.
I am taking the under.
I'll also say, that if this "surge" does not materialize as forecast within the next 2 weeks, Trump will be forced to make reccomendations to open things up quicker.
Because, one thing is for sure, last week's unemployment claims figure of 6 million, implies that April would be looking at 20 million plus additional claims.
EDIT
We'll use the Worldometer for the official total: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
AND if they even HAVE this virus.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1246124190438227974
Bingo! Any day now.
Useless exercise -- we'll never know the real number.
The powers that be have shut us down because 2 million deaths were originally projected. Now Trump says the range is 100k-200k over the course of the year.
I think it's worth talking about this and seeing whether or not these exponential forecasts are anywhere close to right.
Very few public figures are coming forward to dispute any of these forecasts and it's like everything out of Fauci's and the rest of the medical industrial complex's mouth is taken as gospel.
Yesterday the the new # of deaths dropped vs. the day before. Despite # of cases having steadily trended up the last week. No notes about there being incomplete data to explain that. And not on the weekend either. So that may have been the first legitimate drop in the new deaths rate yet. If we don't see a significant jump in the number of new deaths today we may be rolling into the peak number of deaths per day (~1100) which is much much lower than the projected peak of ~2500 deaths per day. May be the first indication that wider adoption of hydroxychloroquine is having an impact.
Also interesting is that Florida has one of the lowest deaths-to-cases ratios of the majorly hit states, despite having, by far, the largest ratio of at-risk elderly citizens. Florida also happens to have the governor who has most openly embraced use of hydroxychloroquine. I seriously doubt that is a coincidence.
Yup. And I'm dumbfounded as to how they can use New York numbers and apply them to other areas. I lived in NYC for a decade. Most people are crammed in like sardines from the apartment they live in, to the walk to the subway platform, to the platform, to the subway train, to the next platform, to another train, then on the sidwalk, all the way to the office where you sit a foot or 2 apart on a desk with a dozen people.There's no comparison between the population density and the hundreds of people that you come in contact with on a daily basis, and Sarasota Florida or Miami, or here in Houston which is supposed to be the next big hot spot.
I have a feeling we’re gonna be looking good.
I think so too but I think you understand that if you start questioning these forecasts publicly on your social media you will get swarmed by hysterical sheep angry that you dare think for yourself and not blindly trust the powers that be.
I don’t have any social media other than this
Even here there are a lot of fearmongers.
You're a wise man. I'm almost there too.
UNDER
Give me the under.
(Many of these cases are presumptive. In other words, they are not officially tested.)
Not happening. Pooh Flu isn't going to take many lives with hydroxychloroquine now accepted and widely used.
I'll put you down as taking the under
I took out a 2nd mortgage sold 2 of my 4 kids to go with the under. I even parlayed it with a teaser bet that when this is all over it will come out that more people die from falling down the stairs.
I would suggest taking the spread between weekly heart disease deaths in the US over the entire weekly Covid death count as well. There's a lot of value in that one and Vegas hasn't pumped up the vig too much.
they will always recommend to shut everything down.
Under
Under. May get as high as 15K, we’ll see.
The low end of the projections was around 16k. Then the following week it's supposed to be 38k. I just don't see this happening given that NYC/NJ are half the cases.
UNDER.
Under