According to the official projections, there are supposed to be 19,946 covid-19 deaths by next Friday. So let's round it up and say 20,000 even by Friday April, 10th. As of today the figure is about 6,900 with about half the cases in NY/NJ.
Mark down in the comments whether you are taking the over or under.
I am taking the under.
I'll also say, that if this "surge" does not materialize as forecast within the next 2 weeks, Trump will be forced to make reccomendations to open things up quicker.
Because, one thing is for sure, last week's unemployment claims figure of 6 million, implies that April would be looking at 20 million plus additional claims.
EDIT
We'll use the Worldometer for the official total: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Yesterday the the new # of deaths dropped vs. the day before. Despite # of cases having steadily trended up the last week. No notes about there being incomplete data to explain that. And not on the weekend either. So that may have been the first legitimate drop in the new deaths rate yet. If we don't see a significant jump in the number of new deaths today we may be rolling into the peak number of deaths per day (~1100) which is much much lower than the projected peak of ~2500 deaths per day. May be the first indication that wider adoption of hydroxychloroquine is having an impact.
Also interesting is that Florida has one of the lowest deaths-to-cases ratios of the majorly hit states, despite having, by far, the largest ratio of at-risk elderly citizens. Florida also happens to have the governor who has most openly embraced use of hydroxychloroquine. I seriously doubt that is a coincidence.
Yup. And I'm dumbfounded as to how they can use New York numbers and apply them to other areas. I lived in NYC for a decade. Most people are crammed in like sardines from the apartment they live in, to the walk to the subway platform, to the platform, to the subway train, to the next platform, to another train, then on the sidwalk, all the way to the office where you sit a foot or 2 apart on a desk with a dozen people.There's no comparison between the population density and the hundreds of people that you come in contact with on a daily basis, and Sarasota Florida or Miami, or here in Houston which is supposed to be the next big hot spot.