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posted ago by SordidPontification +17 / -0

This idea is authoritarian and would likely face numerous legal challenges. It is offered strictly as a thought experiment.

The Morpheus Protocol would implement the following:

  1. Community leaders, business owners, employees, and anyone public-facing would be issued a maintenance dose of HCQ for the duration of a month.
  2. Anyone wishing to participate economically would be required to submit to maintenance doses of HCQ for a month.
  3. Anyone unwilling or unable to participate (e.g. because of negative reactions to HCQ) would be quarantined for a month.

The economy would be opened back up with no restrictions except to the people in corpus #3. Participants could randomly elect to submit to antibody testing to determine viral penetration into the community and to estimate the rate of infection. If successful, this would have an effect similar to widespread vaccination without the need to vaccinate, assuming HCQ is a prophylactic for COVID-19. Once 50% of the population has been exposed and developed antibodies, then whatever remaining quarantines exist can be lifted.

This makes a few assumptions and would face a number of challenges. Specifically, these assumptions are:

  1. That HCQ is a prophylactic for COVID-19 and that a maintenance dose is low enough such that we don't run out of supply while remaining effective. There is at least one study, albeit Chinese, that I am aware of which stated that no one taking long term doses of HCQ participated in their disease study because none of them exhibited symptoms of COVID-19. There isn't sufficient evidence at this point to make this assumption.
  2. That we would be able to ramp up production for HCQ sufficiently to cover enough people to participate. At a maximum, this might require ($population / 2) * 30 doses.
  3. That HCQ is a perfect prophylactic, meaning it's successful even if dosages are missed, and/or that public usage, as directed, is perfect. Neither of these are possible, strictly speaking.
  4. That people who remain in quarantine not participating in the Morpheus Protocol would adhere to the quarantine for a month.
  5. That prophylactic use of HCQ preceding exposure would still afford antibody production at or following the time of infection. If antibody production is weak or nonexistent, then this will not work.
  6. That enough people would participate to make this work.

Some challenges:

  1. We would need to conduct testing to estimate the a) rate of infection in the community and b) the rate of immunity to get the population close enough to 50% that herd immunity can take over.
  2. Distribution of medication would present its own unique set of challenges.
  3. 30 days is undoubtedly an ambitious timeline and would possibly require significantly more doses over time if this period is insufficient. This is partially due to the fact that viral spread will be inhibited if infected users of HCQ don't act as reservoirs. Although, if this is true, then there is a possibility the opposite may take effect and the disease could be eradicated in a month.
  4. Adherence to this is unlikely, and there are ethical challenges for mass-dosing the population with a potentially unnecessary and dangerous drug if misused. Though, I'm certain there will be someone pointing out that this is largely true for vaccination--a valid point.
  5. We're well passed the threshold where this would be successful as a preventative. Infection penetration into many communities is so extensive that measures to inhibit further spread are a bit like urinating on the barn after it's on fire.

Again, this is strictly a thought experiment exploring one potential solution to this crisis, albeit heavy-handed. Public cooperation would be spotty at best, but something along these lines might be the best option to improve consumer confidence.

The name is a deliberate choice for reasons only this community would understand.

This idea is authoritarian and would likely face numerous legal challenges. It is offered strictly as a thought experiment. The Morpheus Protocol would implement the following: 1) Community leaders, business owners, employees, and anyone public-facing would be issued a maintenance dose of HCQ for the duration of a month. 2) Anyone wishing to participate economically would be required to submit to maintenance doses of HCQ for a month. 3) Anyone unwilling or unable to participate (e.g. because of negative reactions to HCQ) would be quarantined for a month. The economy would be opened back up with **no restrictions except to the people in corpus #3**. Participants could randomly elect to submit to antibody testing to determine viral penetration into the community and to estimate the rate of infection. If successful, this would have an effect similar to widespread vaccination without the need to vaccinate, assuming HCQ is a prophylactic for COVID-19. Once 50% of the population has been exposed and developed antibodies, then whatever remaining quarantines exist can be lifted. This makes a few assumptions and would face a number of challenges. Specifically, these assumptions are: 1) That HCQ is a prophylactic for COVID-19 and that a maintenance dose is low enough such that we don't run out of supply while remaining effective. There is at least one study, albeit Chinese, that I am aware of which stated that no one taking long term doses of HCQ participated in their disease study because none of them exhibited symptoms of COVID-19. There isn't sufficient evidence at this point to make this assumption. 2) That we would be able to ramp up production for HCQ sufficiently to cover enough people to participate. At a maximum, this might require `($population / 2) * 30` doses. 3) That HCQ is a *perfect* prophylactic, meaning it's successful even if dosages are missed, and/or that public usage, as directed, is perfect. Neither of these are possible, strictly speaking. 4) That people who remain in quarantine not participating in the Morpheus Protocol would adhere to the quarantine for a month. 5) That prophylactic use of HCQ preceding exposure would still afford antibody production at or following the time of infection. If antibody production is weak or nonexistent, then this will not work. 6) That enough people would participate to make this work. Some challenges: 1) We would need to conduct testing to estimate the a) rate of infection in the community and b) the rate of immunity to get the population close enough to 50% that herd immunity can take over. 2) Distribution of medication would present its own unique set of challenges. 3) 30 days is undoubtedly an ambitious timeline and would possibly require significantly more doses over time if this period is insufficient. This is partially due to the fact that viral spread will be inhibited if infected users of HCQ don't act as reservoirs. Although, if this is true, then there is a possibility the opposite may take effect and the disease could be eradicated in a month. 4) Adherence to this is unlikely, and there are ethical challenges for mass-dosing the population with a potentially unnecessary and dangerous drug if misused. Though, I'm certain there will be someone pointing out that this is largely true for vaccination--a valid point. 5) We're well passed the threshold where this would be successful as a *preventative*. Infection penetration into many communities is so extensive that measures to inhibit further spread are a bit like urinating on the barn after it's on fire. Again, this is strictly a thought experiment exploring one potential solution to this crisis, albeit heavy-handed. Public cooperation would be spotty at best, but something *along these lines* might be the best option to improve consumer confidence. The name is a deliberate choice for reasons only this community would understand.
Comments (10)
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2
Independenceforever 2 points ago +2 / -0

Tyranny will never save America. Only kill it.

And she is badly wounded already.

Calm yourself and help your local city with info and morale.

This is bazooka on mosquito.

1
SordidPontification [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

Tyranny will never save America. Only kill it.

Did we miss the part that this is a thought experiment?

Calm yourself and help your local city with info and morale.

I'm a patron of local businesses where they're still open during this time, because the local economy needs as much help as I can give it. I'm not hugely appreciative of this implicit assumption to the contrary.

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JoeTalley 2 points ago +2 / -0

I loved it.

Brilliant work pede. <3 <3 <3 <3

1
SordidPontification [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

Sadly, it seems most people are dismissive of doing anything to treat this. I suspect it's because most people think this is just a bad cold. It's not.

Shutting down everything isn't a solution, even for a short term, and it's painful. We need something to get confidence back to the consumers so they can partake in the economy again, and this is just one thought experiment as to how we could go about it.

I'm not a fan of opening things up without mitigations to protect people's lives. There's no reason we, the United States of America, can't do something of the sort. If HCQ is effective, and we can produce enough, there's no reason to sit idly by and do nothing, which seems to be the consensus.

It infuriates me!

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BillionsAndBillions 1 point ago +1 / -0

Call me old fashioned, but I don't care for policies or even thought experiments involving absolute central government control over our lives, even for our own safety. I know few people agree with me these days, even "conservatives", but I'll stick with America's founding principals until the end.

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SordidPontification [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

In my defense, I don't see this as "absolute total control" but rather as a solution to mitigate both the potential sickness as a cause of SARS-CoV-2 as well as to provide consumers with confidence that they could go about business as usual.

If HCQ can be used as a prophylactic, as some studies suggest, then the only reason to not give it to everyone is if we don't have enough or the elite wishes to otherwise control the supply. Otherwise, the only solution is to do what we're currently doing, which is to shut everything down.

That's not going to work long term because business is going to suffer. If we could give people a reason to be confident to go back to their previous lives by taking something that greatly reduces their chances of getting sick or even exhibiting symptoms, then the faster we can get to either eradicating the virus or reaching herd immunity. Doing something like this would greatly reduce the number of lives lost.

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BillionsAndBillions 1 point ago +1 / -0

It seems like you put a lot of thought into your post. I agree HCQ looks like a very promising treatment and possibly prophylactic as you stated. I worry about the precedence of the government establishing this centralized authority over the healthcare and activities of the population. One of the foundational goals for establishing communism in a country is the government takeover of its healthcare.

A central authority, taking power from the people to fix serious problems under penalty of law, is neat and tidy and terrifying to me. Freedom is messy and chaotic and what I prefer.

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SordidPontification [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

It seems like you put a lot of thought into your post.

It was actually a shower thought. I'm not sure 5-10 minutes counts as a "lot." Hence why I posted a list of assumptions and challenges that this would face.

...the government establishing this centralized authority over the healthcare and activities of the population

A couple of points.

First, I don't believe I advocated for a centralized authority. If such a protocol were enacted, this would be a one time thing, and could be handled on the local levels of government. There's no need to do this in a centralized manner, and in fact a centralized authority would probably mean this couldn't be done fast enough. In theory, you could do this state-by-state and distribute HCQ to everyone prophylactically for 1-4 weeks with anyone who couldn't take it or didn't want to take it being isolated as we are now in most locations.

Second, centralized authority over healthcare is already an unfortunate specter we're facing and have for decades. This isn't new.

taking power from the people to fix serious problems under penalty of law

To be fair, and while I'm not advocating this--and I'm not sure why you're the second poster to infer this, because that was never intended by my post since the idea would be largely voluntary--this isn't new either. There have been temporary suspensions of certain civil rights in history through various war powers acts limited in scope and duration.

My primary point with making this post is that we have available possible solutions. We'd be stupid not to use them, and if we do it correctly and these solutions do in fact work, we could put all this behind us in less than a month's time and be back to business as usual.

The biggest threat right now even if we do everything perfectly but have no prophylactic measures is that the first outbreak following a lift of isolation measures enacted by state and local governments will deal a second blow to confidence levels and people will be afraid to re-enter the economy.

I don't think we can survive this much longer. We need extreme measures, even if they're voluntary, provided the people who aren't participating understand that they have no litigative authority if they get infected, and provided people who participate understand the risks associated with a fairly powerful drug like HCQ and the fact it's unlikely to provide a 100% guarantee against infection.

A solution like this would both save lives and allow a restoration of the economy back to its previous state. I'm sure better solutions exist, and probably do, but the point of posting this was in the hopes that someone else may think of one of them first rather than complaining about theoretical political fallout when the existing fallout is already rather dire.

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BillionsAndBillions 1 point ago +1 / -0

I'm a little weird in that I don't think precedence for "suspension" of civil liberties (God-given, human rights) makes present or future "suspensions" legitimate. I think maybe the government and private industry does its best to inform the public of dangers and best practices and provide what they can to combat the virus, and let people get back to work, under guidelines like social distancing, without suspension of liberties. Perhaps the founding principles are just outmoded relics and I am along with them (though I'm not that old). Maybe there's no room for that American idealism in the modern world, and authoritarianism is inevitable.

1
SordidPontification [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

I think maybe the government and private industry does its best to inform the public of dangers and best practices and provide what they can to combat the virus, and let people get back to work, under guidelines like social distancing,

That's not sustainable, nor is it going to work long term. Though, it amuses me that "social distancing" as a guideline is acceptable whereas potentially effective prophylactic use (on a mandatory or voluntary basis) is not.

My argument is that if HCQ is a functional prophylactic, I don't see why we can't issue it to people who want to take it to reduce the spread or potentially work toward eliminating the virus and reaching herd immunity (if possible).

Doing what we're doing now isn't working. It's destroying the economy, and if we try to rely on social distancing to exclusion, we're eventually going to see a fairly significant infection rate. If the lethality rate of this virus is as advertised by the statistics based on known positive test results, then we're going to see a significant number of dead. I'm not sure that's acceptable given that we have treatments that are promising enough to try.

without suspension of liberties. Perhaps the founding principles are just outmoded relics and I am along with them

I'm convinced you've not read anything I'm wrote and seem insistent that this is what I'm arguing for--a suspension of liberties.

I'm not.

I'm presenting one of a myriad possible solutions that would be using a well-known drug (hydroxychloroquine) as a potential prophylactic measure. The thought experiment involves using it either on a voluntary or mandatory basis for a period of about a month to eliminate any risk from this virus, and whether or not this would work.

Now, if you're interested in exploring that or other possibilities, I'm open to discussion. Otherwise, I feel that you're framing my argument in a manner it wasn't intended (this is called "strawmanning"), and we're just talking passed each other, rendering this thread of debate entirely pointless.