We don't have any other metric than confirmed cases, at least until the antibody tests are applied widely. That's true for any communicable disease that ranges from no symptoms to death.
When comparing COVID-19 to influenza deaths, the number of influenza cases are only confirmed cases as well.
But we do have the metric of .2% from 2016. What is the overall death rate for 35 year olds today in NYC? The increase would give us a more relevant death rate due to the COVID-19 epidemic.
I don't think it will be immediately, but we are on the path to do so: the FDA approved an antibody test in the past few days.
With enough randomized testing, we will be able to estimate how many people were exposed and developed an immune response, with or without symptoms. That will help with the decision process going forward.
The problem with deaths divided by confirmed cases is selection bias. It's the wrong denominator.
Exactly.
The other problem is not taking any treatments into account in the death rate.
We don't have any other metric than confirmed cases, at least until the antibody tests are applied widely. That's true for any communicable disease that ranges from no symptoms to death.
When comparing COVID-19 to influenza deaths, the number of influenza cases are only confirmed cases as well.
Confirmed cases includes “presumed positive”, so it is a misnomer.
But we do have the metric of .2% from 2016. What is the overall death rate for 35 year olds today in NYC? The increase would give us a more relevant death rate due to the COVID-19 epidemic.
Exactly...we don’t have any metric....we need one ASAP
I don't think it will be immediately, but we are on the path to do so: the FDA approved an antibody test in the past few days.
With enough randomized testing, we will be able to estimate how many people were exposed and developed an immune response, with or without symptoms. That will help with the decision process going forward.