Originally typed this as a comment for u/Razeontherock but decided to make a post instead. Original question: https://thedonald.win/p/FMStoXcO/x/c/Hr6CU8kY
Reply:
The John's Hopkins data doesn't even attempt to show recovered for Missouri https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Saint Louis County has its own arcgis dashboard here: https://stlcogis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=6ae65dea4d804f2ea4f5d8ba79e96df1 Similarly, there's no recovered data there but very interesting "Lost Lives" data / other statistics.
Missouri arcgis dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/1fd32012487c4e5c936a13389f9731c3
Missouri state official data source is the following: https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/
As of today, 04/05/2020.. Cases in Missouri: 2,291 Deaths: 24 Versus the John's Hopkins data: 2345 cases / 43 deaths
I have absolutely no idea why there's such a discrepancy between the two since one should be (in theory) sourced from the other
I can't seem to find any information on how long it takes someone to recover or die but going with the standard 14 days
03/22/2020 - 90 confirmed cases / 3 deaths - http://archive.is/p44X2
(90 - 24) = 66
^ - current deaths
^ - conf cases. 03/22/2020
From this data we can infer that at least 66 people have fully recovered in Missouri
03/22/2020 - 04/05/2020 Wisconsin Comparison - http://archive.is/iUVGO Wisconsin current data: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/outbreaks/index.htm
- Deaths as of 04/05/2020: 56
- Confirmed cases from 03/22/2020 (14 days ago): 381
Therefore, (381 - 56) = at least 325 recovered cases in Wisconsin
This site posts the raw data and historical data, it might be helpful (along with links to the sources of the data):
https://covidtracking.com/data#state-MO
Thanks for posting this. I don’t have time now but will pull the historical data by state and apply some simple math to get at % increase in cases, deaths etc by day.
This site does that for you to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
[edit] Oops, sorry, I thought it has charts per state, but it apparently doesn't.
Actually it does. It's not that easy to navigate on my mobile and pretty jumpy, but the columns of numbers they calculate for us are different for US States than they are for the US as a whole. This conversation started because I've been relying on that site you linked just like most people around the world. I'm now thinking they're lying to us, at least in the US. I'm trying to fact-check them from an independent source, and al45 has done some great work here! I'm going to dig into his sources and methodology. I hope we can have a good conversation here and also get at least some sense of what's going on with people recovering.
Thanks pede, the historical data will be helpful
Here's why I don't think the numbers arrived at by the OP for the number of people recovered is correct:
assuming that 14 days after a test result comes back positive they are either dead or virus-free isn't supported by any experience. We know of strong young military men that have been more miserable than they've ever been for a month, but recovered fully without ever being hospitalized or getting Trump pills. We don't know what treatment they got, if any.
We also know of people being on a ventilator for a month before dying.
I think it's safer to assume that anybody tested positive but not given Trump pills is going to stay sick and contagious for at least 2 weeks or longer.
Methodology to arrive at the number of people recovered when that number isn't specifically reported has to look at total (sometimes referred to as cumulative in a report) cases vs current or active cases. The difference will be those people who had the outcome of either death or recovery. This is getting "fuzzy," as we know people are being reported (at least in some areas, particularly in and around NY) as dying from Wuflu who never tested positive. That's an unknown number that throws everything off, and necessarily reduces this calculated number of people recovered.
Maybe it's legitimately "fog of war," but I can't help but conclude that at least some areas of my government are deliberately lying to me, trying to cause panic.
Good news includes that Missouri shows current people hospitalized at about 100. They're certainly not overwhelmed! Let's hope they stay that way. Many areas have cut back hours on hospital staff and some are even laid off. This is due to removing everyone they possibly can that isn't a Wuflu patient. I haven't heard anyone talk about this being a quarantine measure. People may tend to think a hospital can contain viral spread, but they're lousy at that. If the only patients in the hospital are already infected, then the "only" healthy people being exposed are those that work there. Hopefully they're all offered HCQ as a preventative!
It's possible that my assumptions are incorrect, but following this image https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/37ea507b-6461-4a96-9225-7965dc380964/gr1.jpg
from this study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30075-4/fulltext
the median time between first symptoms and death is 11 days, which is actually shorter than the 14 day allowance I gave in my numbers
Ok but that only speaks to people that die. Assuming that anyone not dead yet after 14 days has recovered isn't good methodology. I'm not saying they'll die, and I'm reminded of that scene from Monty Python "bring out your dead."
What you're doing here is little different from just looking at the difference between number of total cases vs total deaths, but 2 weeks back. It may prove to be pretty close after this is all over; let's hope so.
What I'm trying to do is use this as a gauge to see if we can tell which Governors are repeating Cuomo's mistake, and which are not. If a State is giving people Trump pills as soon as it's known they have Wuflu which is the only thing that makes any sense since we've had 40 million donated to us, (plus DJT bought 29 million more and almost half a billion are expected to ship before May) most of those people will be virus-free free in ONE week.
Other Countries with minimal resources are doing exactly this. It's a horrible shame we aren't.
Yeah, not really sure when we can say "patient has survived X days without dying and therefore won't die"
It is a good thought though! There may come a time in this crisis when it's a significant number and I hadn't thought of it. Like if most people are immune and we're mostly concerned with tracking our population.
Which raises the point that our 2020 census is the most worthless ever.
But right now we should consider that people who have recovered are virus-free free and immune. Since we don't have nearly enough HCQ to give to our entire population as a preventative measure, these people are key to getting US back to work responsibly.
We could phase people in by intentionally exposing them to the virus and then giving them Trump pills. Develop herd immunity, restart our economy - and Bill Gates' vaccine and microchip get BTFO