The original models, which assumed we did no mitigation, had estimates of up to 2.2 million deaths, I think. The new models are somewhere between 100k to 200k desths.
That's what we are trying to prevent. People who deny that this is serious and do not engage in behaviors recommended by the task force (social distancing, curbing non-esstential travel and washing their hands) are the ones who will help make those numbers a reality.
What about the Imperial College of London model specifically convinces you? We know that it was heavily based on data out of China. Do you trust Chinese data? If not why do you trust this model?
Garbage in garbage out...we simply don’t know enough to get an accurate model, so a lot of assumptions are made and people are trying to avoid scenarios that could result in millions of deaths...
I completely agree. Which is why I don't understand why you're quoting that model's numbers. I may be misunderstanding you if you are simply stating what the model said without agreeing with it though.
I was just replying to the question of the projected number of deaths. I don't understand how we even get to the low end of projected deaths if people start taking appropriate medication.
The original models, which assumed we did no mitigation, had estimates of up to 2.2 million deaths, I think. The new models are somewhere between 100k to 200k desths.
ill take things that will never happen for 200 please
That's what we are trying to prevent. People who deny that this is serious and do not engage in behaviors recommended by the task force (social distancing, curbing non-esstential travel and washing their hands) are the ones who will help make those numbers a reality.
Ask any actuary that you know. Why are they still selling life insurance policies if everyone is going to die?
The state of Washington had it officially as of January 15th.
More than a month before the east coast.
They had NO lock down or distancing until last week?
Why are we not seeing the bodies stacked up?
Are you saying that WA has special immunity?
We already revised down from 2 million to 200,000. My bet is UW is right with the 80,000
Reality in Washington State
2018-2019 Season - 245 Deaths (last year) in Washington State last year total from all viruses including a corona virus
2017-2018 Season - 296 Deaths in Washington State from all viruses
2019-2020 Current Season - 310 (Covid) + 89 (flu) = 336 Deaths in Washington State from all viruses
Where is the exponential threat????????
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/5100/420-100-FluUpdateSeason2018.pdf
https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus
What about the Imperial College of London model specifically convinces you? We know that it was heavily based on data out of China. Do you trust Chinese data? If not why do you trust this model?
Oh, I don't trust any of the models. They seem to be changing to fit the results. And I sure as hell don't trust the data out of China.
Garbage in garbage out...we simply don’t know enough to get an accurate model, so a lot of assumptions are made and people are trying to avoid scenarios that could result in millions of deaths...
I completely agree. Which is why I don't understand why you're quoting that model's numbers. I may be misunderstanding you if you are simply stating what the model said without agreeing with it though.
I was just replying to the question of the projected number of deaths. I don't understand how we even get to the low end of projected deaths if people start taking appropriate medication.