CDC DATA FROM LAST WEEK - FLU DEATHS ARE DOWN BECAUSE THEY'RE BEING REPORTED AS COVID DEATHS!
(media.patriots.win)
VERY FAKE NEWS
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Flu deaths are probably down because everyone is staying home so they're not catching it.
I generated this report in Excel from the CSV raw data here: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/nchsdata13.csv
Why is this happening? CDC is telling doctors to report COVID based on assumptions rather than tests. So where do these numbers come from? You guessed it - just based on an average, COVID is "stealing" about 800-1000 deaths per week from the seasonal flu.
That is simply not true. Read the CDC document. It says very clearly that if a death is reported without a positive Covid-19 test it will probably not be categorized as a covid-19 death until the test is received.
You are confusing this with another statement in the document which says doctors can report it as a covid-19 death if it is the cause, or assumed to be the cause, meaning, if there are multiple potential reasons for death and it cannot be definitively determined, it may be marked as a covid-19 death.
Determining cause of death in this type of circumstance is not an exact science, and there are bound to be mistakes, but this conspiracy theory that the CDC is intentionally inflating numbers seems far fetched.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, I think it's an effect of cognitive bias. All things equal, these are the US-wide reported totals, so on the whole we're still significantly down. I was expecting to see a big spike over ANY year, but this year remains well below the average as well as the last 6 flu seasons. Keep in mind this data is ALL pneumonia deaths, not just those caused by flu or corona.
Generate the graph again, and include the total number of deaths.
You will find they also dropped by about 20%. That hasn't occurred during this time period in any previous year.
There is likely a reporting lag, not fake news. Please remove your flair.
It’s because the data is not complete. They only report 100% a week or so later. Right now it’s 84% reporting. Lots of lag in reporting.
It’s like when you see revisions with unemployment and GDP etc.
Is there a source for the percentage of reporting, week by week?
Yes, it's in the CDC "Fluview" tool found here, it rates the data completeness on a per-week basis: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Thanks!!
I think you meant to say pneumonia deaths are down while COVID is up.
And for those saying "well that's the proof the lock down worked." Well what explains the fewer pneumonia (of which only some are viral infections) deaths prior to the lockdown?
Overall, they have been lower this entire season. But, the sudden drop in weeks 11 and 12 is very interesting.
However, if you go look at the data, another trend becomes obvious. The total number of deaths also dropped precipitously: from 51,978 to 40,002. As a result, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia actually went up from 7.57% to 8.15%.
Looking back at previous years, I don't see a similar drop during the same time period.
So, something else is going on here. It could be incomplete reporting (probably due to a time lag to compile it from all sources), or the social distancing actually helped with all communicable diseases, accidents, etc. But, the latter is unlikely because it takes a while for death from a communicable disease to occur.
Let's put some dates on this:
The federal "15 days to slow the spread" began on 2020-03-16. That wouldn't have started an instant drop in pneumonia deaths (or all deaths) the week before.
I think it's a lag in reporting.
Yeah I thought about graphing that out too. Deaths in general dropped because there are fewer car accidents, fights, etc. It's possible that the uptick in pneumonia percent while ultimately dropping overall is being influenced by multiple factors we can't see with this data set, or it's simply an anomaly. I'd feel differently if it was 5% vs a change of 0.68% but maybe we'll see some more trends come out of it.
I'll probably update the graphing once the inevitable fingerpointing over the virus begins in earnest.
Take a look at the dates I posted in another comment:
Week 11 (the first week the decline was observed) began on 2020-03-08. The federal guidelines began on 2020-03-16. The Bay Area ordered "shelter in place" on 2020-03-16.
So, the decline "began" before the federal guidelines and the Bay Area instituted their "lockdown". I think the Bay area was the first to do so. Other states did close bars and restaurants earlier.
I suggest that you wait a few weeks, and compare the data reported then for weeks 11 and 12 to the data reported now.
Derp yea that would have been a better title. Correlation is not causation.
And just like that, flu and pneumonia are cured this year. Odd.
Unfortunately this data isn't reliable (the part we are trying to focus on). I grabbed a variety of data sets from the same source and they ALL show a sharp decline at the edge of the current data. To me, its pretty obvious that the most recent 3-4 weeks cannot be used as evidence for anything simply because not all the data has been reported.
Just take a look for yourself, just modify part of the link in the source to capture data from anther time period, for example: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2018-2019/data/nchsdata22.csv
This also shows the SAME sharp dip towards the end, walk a little bit into the future (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2018-2019/data/nchsdata30.csv)and the SAME weeks that the previous report shows as a dip are now normalized and the most recent weeks again have the same sharp dip.
Wrong. They’re down due to isolation and the fact that corona is more contagious.
If that were the case, you'd think having the entire country on lockdown would lower flu deaths a little more than 20%.
Proud american is a concern troll spouting bullshit all over like a three year old with a stomach ache.
When the season is over, we can compare the entirety of the differences in death numbers.