LOOK AT THEIR MODELS. 1M TO 100,000 TO 55,000 TO < 20,000. THE FUCKING FLU KILLS 50,000 A YEAR! FUCKING BULLSHIT !
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Not just that, but NY state has 16,000 total hospitalizations and it looks like that's the peak. Forget about ventilators - I doubt they'll even use all of the original 4,000 that GEOTUS gave them.
He's such a steaming pile of shit. Everyone with half a brain knew that his 40,000 request was an order of magnitude higher than what he would actually need.
They're all doing this. The Governor of Washington bitched endlessly about the federal government only sending 500 ventilators instead of the 1000 he had asked for, only to send 400 of those to New York because they turned out to not be necessary.
These governors remind me of toilet paper hoarders.
I can't go back and look at the previous IHME model, but actual data is currently tracking the median prediction closely:
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/figure_8_0405.jpg
If Cuomo was using this model, he was likely considering the top of the uncertainty interval (the purple shaded area on the graph). You can see that's above 40,000.
We're going to need less than 20K ventilators for the entire country. I knew his 40,000 request wasn't even close to accurate the minute I read it.
Even his threat to take them from upstate New York was ass covering to make it look like there is a shortage
Sorry, I misread your comment. I thought you were referring to hospital beds, not ventilators. The graph I linked includes hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. But, I cited hospital beds.
Ventilators and ICU beds are essentially the same (both real data and projections). It looks like the peak of the median line is only about 6,000 ICU beds and 5,000 ventilators. The peak of the uncertainty interval is about 10,000 and 11,000.
Given how cases are currently distributed across the country, I think you are right -- or at least close enough that it doesn't matter. NY has about 1/3rd of the cases nationwide, and if you simply multiply the peak of the median projection by three, that's 18,000 ICU beds and 15,000 ventilators. Even if you use the top of the uncertainty interval, that's still only 30,000 ventilators.
The presentation of the IHME model results still has a big problem: it's not showing the actual results for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators for all states. The datapoints on the graph that I cited above should be in the projection of hospital beds for all states. But, maybe they don't have that data.
They are showing actual data for the daily and total number of deaths. And if you look at this PDF:
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/comparing_dailydeathpredictions_byrelease_all_0.pdf
You can see the model predictions for all three published versions: 3/26, 4/1, and 4/5. For my state, the first release was too pessimistic, but it's looking much better.
I'll note that there's a rookie mistake in that PDF. The individual graphs (top left and right, bottom left) have different scales for the Y-axis. That's a big no-no, because it makes them hard to compare them (and often is used to misrepresent results). But, they partially redeemed themselves by overlaying all three graphs on each other in the bottom right, using the same scale.
NY has 150k cases also doesn't mean 150k hospitalizations. Total is between 16k and 17k. The good news is that hospitalizations have halved. Meaning it's leveled off. It will start dropping soon.
We may be surprised with an early partial reopening by Easter still.
13 Floridians under 55 out of 21 million have died. 13! Yes over 82% of the 236 deaths in Florida are over 65, so can we protect grandma and grandpa and stop this bullshit!
Save their lives, speed up our daily commute = win win
And did those 13 Floridians under 55 have pre-existing conditions? Were they obese, diabetic, hit by a train while coughing...
They may have, and I truly don’t want to discount the tragedy there, but it’s crazy that we are creating our entire way of life when we lose a lot more people and things like auto accidents. What’s encouraging though is it looks very much like all the cities here and counties in Florida are starting to see the new caseload drop. That coupled with some of these drugs I think might get us out of the woods sooner than later which is what we all need including saving as many lives as possible.
They don't give a fuck. Mission Accomplished for them. Society is in turmoil.
Yes, this is BS.
The models suck but you’re falling into a fallacy.
If your friend is about to get hit by a bus so you tell him and he moves, then complains than he wasn’t hit by a bus so the action wasn’t needed.
You’re being the friend right now.
Part of the reason the estimates are lowered is precisely because of the precautions being taken.
Wrong
Shutting down the economy because the model told them to
Look at countries without lockdowns, they are no where near our numbers
They knew their projections were way off to start. They didn’t fix them at first because they wanted proof social distancing and shutting the economy down was what saved everybody.
TIME TO GET BACK TO WORK, AMERICA!!
Is that for nyc or national?
NBC intentionally using that dark purple color to hide the third line.
The projections are off NOW - BECAUSE A BUNCH OF PEOPLE BUSTED THEIR BUTTS SO THOSE PROJECTIONS WOULD NOT BECOME REALITY
Not saying people haven't been working their asses off helping the sick and prevention - the models have been absolute GARBAGE!
Just like the climate change models: hot garbage.
TFW the same genius work that came up with these models produces our flu numbers.
TRUMP SAVED 950,000 AMERICAN LIVES REDUCING DEATH BY 95%
The projections are wrong, but you seem to think projections in general are wrong
The IHME model never predicted 1M deaths. The first version on 3/26 predicted a median of 81,114 deaths (over the entire US), with a range of 38K - 162K.
Don't confuse this model with other ones.
Ummmm.....or maybe because it’s been here since November? 🤷🏿
Yes it did.
The IMHE MODEL IS BASED ON THE IMPERIAL COLLEGE MODEL
No, it's not. They did this independently.
Dr. Birx even said that they reviewed 12 different models and set them all aside to build their own model, using the same methodology they built HIV, TB, and malaria models.
However, they were unaware the IHME was doing the same. They ended up with the same results.
This is false. They projected median 95k deaths until they updated that projection yesterday/today. At that point they were suggesting 262k beds and now we are at projected 140k.
Max death projection at that point was 240k as well.
I cited the first set of results, from 3/26.
http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
I wasn't able to quickly find which version you are citing. But, you can find all the updates here:
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Scroll down to the bottom of the page, and you'll find links for the 3/30, 3/31, 4/1, and 4/2 summaries. The 4/5 summary is the button just above the archive links.
I’m not even seeing a result for 3/26 there. 3/30 is the earliest
This main page is where I’ve been checking manually for days: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
And this is where it went from 94k to 80k yesterday to today. Even April 1st still says 94k.
Edit: the 3/26 projection published page just links to the current data.
You have to follow the first link I provided for the first results. It's effectively a news release. Or, you can read the actual pre-print article linked from that news article:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1
The predictions have varying with each release, and this shouldn't be a surprise. But contrary to the OP's title, it never predicted 1M deaths, even nationwide.
STFU SHILL
THE MODEL SAID 100,000 TO 240,000 DEAD WITH “MAXIMUM” MITIGATIONS
IF WE DO NOTHING IT WILL BE 1M TO 2.4M DEAD !
IT IS ALL BULLSHIT!
Stop calling people shills for expressing a contrary opinion.
It's juvenile.
The account started an hour ago. The name is faucisupport and they're concern trolling keeping everything shut down. I thought it was just an honest opinion, but check the account.
It doesn't matter.
If you disagree with someone, explain why and back up your argument with facts.
Calling them a shill is an ad hominem attack. It discredits you more than it does them.
I don't like jumping on calling people shills because I don't agree. Look through 2 pages of the comment history on an account that was started an hour ago. It's pretty obvious.
Sure it does shill, sure it does. Go home to mommy and tell her they were being mean to you.
Thank you for proving my point.
Yes, it does make you a commie lib shill, YOU in particular, maybe not all new accounts.
GTFO SHILL
Using an enlarged font just makes you look more juvenile.
What did social distancing actually do? The first week they started shutting stuff down and canceling school, everyone packed into the stores and spread the shit even faster than if life just went on as normal. It was all predicted here. The stats would be way lower than the wild projections, then shills would come out of the woodwork "der, see shutting down the entire country was worth it".
Now maybe. What about 3 weeks ago when every retard jammed into stores getting all the toilet paper? You don't think that would have increased the spread? People that hang out at the bar together still find ways to hang out together. There's no way the economic shutdown has actually reduces the spread. Maybe school being closed could really tamp it down. But closing restaurants and preventing people from doing landscaping work probably doesn't stop much. Knock it off with the revisionist history.
The grocery stores and hardware stores where I live are packed, all day long, its the only place anyone can go. Despite this, our county has had 3 cases in 6 weeks, and they all came back from somewhere else. Not one fast food worker or Wal-mart employee has caught anything. None of them wear masks, and only the hysterical facebook queens wear them in the store. Yet hundreds of people where I work have lost their jobs, and thousands in the county, some never to come back, and you want us to be happy about social distancing?
Those were two different models. The Imperial College model from early in the year showed 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. with no mitigation, no suppression., as the worst case scenario. This is the model that also showed how closing schools and social distancing would massively reduce the deaths. Author updated to show U.K. could expect 20,000 deaths with closing schools and social distancing, not 500,000.
The IHME model is much different. It used actual data from China and Italy, and updated regularly based on actual data in the U.S. Up until April 1 IHME under-projected deaths in NY. They updated yesterday, and dropped the overall range of deaths in the U.S. from 120,000 to 220,000 down to something like 40,000 to 130,000 - because we've been doing the Stop the Spread for 3 weeks now.
Just stating facts. Ignore the downvote brigading and being called a shill. Happens all the time when pedes make comments that support what Trump and Pence are doing with Stop the Spread.
Fucking ChiComs shill. Deport
And your first comment here is an hour ago.