Those were two different models. The Imperial College model from early in the year showed 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. with no mitigation, no suppression., as the worst case scenario. This is the model that also showed how closing schools and social distancing would massively reduce the deaths. Author updated to show U.K. could expect 20,000 deaths with closing schools and social distancing, not 500,000.

The IHME model is much different. It used actual data from China and Italy, and updated regularly based on actual data in the U.S. Up until April 1 IHME under-projected deaths in NY. They updated yesterday, and dropped the overall range of deaths in the U.S. from 120,000 to 220,000 down to something like 40,000 to 130,000 - because we've been doing the Stop the Spread for 3 weeks now.

Just stating facts. Ignore the downvote brigading and being called a shill. Happens all the time when pedes make comments that support what Trump and Pence are doing with Stop the Spread.