These models are fundamentally flawed. The excuses I'm hearing already are that social distancing is working, but that was already baked into the models.

They have been trying to predict the impact of social distancing since at least 2008. Here is a study using both the Imperial and the Washinton U. modeling programs to predict the impact of social distancing and different compliance levels. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Modeling-targeted-layered-containment-of-an-in-the-Halloran-Ferguson/50c9404f4acb70b43d3ac3a22c2499dbba7379e9 Note they never said their current predictions were dependent on levels of social distancing with a range for the different levels, they just baked it in, and gave us scare numbers.

The other place where the models can be broken is in the understanding of covid and its impacts. I understand covid is new, but they are pushing the output of their numbers as if it was gospel.

And their can be any combination of things wrong with the models, parts of their impact of social distancing & the understanding of covid.

Just be ready to hear the excuses they use to validate their work. The people producing these and have been working on these for years are too invested to say they finally got their moment in the sun and failed to deliver.

Right now we are at a point where the models and projections aren't useful anymore good or not, we should be using data from the ground to trend and plan. I've stopped checking them