I’m a small business owner that caters to other small business (b2b). While I’ve been fairly strong through this with a diverse client base, the “doom and gloom” some business owners have is frustrating.
Some think we’re closed through the end of 2020. Some just eat everything major media feeds them (obviously you can’t counter argue). Some want this lockdown to be over as fast as possible.
Slowly we’re seeing media become more responsible, by twisting headlines, every death being labeled COVID-19, and kicking and screaming that Trump isn’t helping. At some point you have to believe people are going to start to understand this isn’t as bad as it’s being portrayed - I mean, how many deaths being counted are ACTUALLY COVID19? How many recoveries are ACTUALLY being tracked? At some point, this has to flip-flop. I almost expect a “this isn’t nearly as bad as we overreacted to” - which would never happen.
But do we think there’s a realistic normalcy timetable?
IMO (which matters very little) the end of April is the drop dead time for the economy. I have a feeling they will start opening up bits hopefully next week if ,as they state, this week is the worst. But its all borked with the way they are counting deaths. All other causes of death are non existent ATM.
I don't think Trump will let this continue much longer, especially if therapeutic drugs are shown to be effective (in my opinion, this has already occurred). I think it's crazy to talk about testing people to allow them to return to work. That would be a bureaucratic nightmare. Trump reluctantly extended the shutdown to April 30th, so I think he'll push to reopen at that time. The governors are a different story. The public will have to push their own governors to get things going.
I agree. That’s along the lines of what I was thinking as well. I should say, hoping.
My local (N.Tx) news is finally starting to report the local news again. Instead of the first 19 headlines being doom & gloom, it's roughly the first 3-5, local, gloom 2-3 more, local and so on. Judging by that, I'd say 2 more weeks here.
I honestly believe trump is still on the easter timetable. He got the predictable blowback for it and released the may 1 thing in response, but with the numbers coming out, and the hcn pills being stocked, i dont think he ever changed his mind. If anything, the optics of reducing the 'experts' prolonged timetable are too good to pass up.
My money's on this coming monday for all but the hardest hit cities for a trump announcement.
He'll likely leave it up to the governors, though, and i doubt anyone wants to be first. My guy, ron desantis, has 90% of the state open, functioning as normal. I'd bet florida opens first. depending on who is running your state --my guy is straight dontgiveafuck-- aim for the following week of easter or may 1.
More personally, i'm 80% b2b and my customer base --who are just as panicked as yours-- have been responding well to '98% recovery rate,' because theyre not hearing it on tv and 'you cant go to a restaurant because thered be more than 10 people you cant distance from...but its okay to stand shoulder to shoulder with 3000 people in the goddamn toilet paper aisle at walmart.'
Cant speak for you, but my money comes from doing my clients thinking for them.
I think barring any major changes the President and the red states open up at the end of April. I'm not sure we will see schools re-open then in many places or sporting events, concerts and such return then. Just an end to all this lockdown madness.
Some of the blue states, I have no idea what they will do. They might just drag it on for the hell of it. At some point if the rest of the world is open their people will go nuts and force things open.
I've got a trip planned in late June to a state that has very few cases. If they have things open for me to visit I am going unless I am sick or have died from the Chinese Virus before then. I don't think it's possible to die from anything else right now. If they don't have things open then I will alter my trip to a place that wants my tourism dollars. I'm really more concerned about my trip to Europe in September, I'm in that trip a good bit of money and will be royally pissed if I have to eat that cost.
I'm in New York, so probably never. But I think depending on your states peak, the end of June.
I think NY will get back to work soon because they have to. Also, Cuomo has been wrong on the magnitude of the ChiVi in NY, so he's going to be on a short leash. He probably has Presidential aspirations, so he can't be associated with economic disaster.
It's going to be a State by State decision. I'm in NJ and I doubt we'll be open before the end of May. I can even see portions of the state closed until September - things like vacation rentals, beaches, etc.
For Trump, it's April 30 or bust.
Unfortunately, it's entirely up to the governors and mayors to open things up.
Not until election in November. If the lockdown is lifted in 2 weeks, no one will go for another shutdown in the fall.