With respect, you're grossly mistaken re: skeptics of the models == shills.
The actions of POTUS have saved lives - that's a well-understood certainty. Without the early actions taken and the strong attention devoted to this problem, more people likely would have died/will die from this thing.
That said, the model projections being shown to us have been unrealistic (please see https://thedonald.win/p/FMXVupM8/the-imhe-models-of-wuhan-coronav/c/ as an example). Yes, a model is garbage if, when updating with new data, it fails to follow the trend of the data already obtained; and it is absolute garbage when its best guess is an order of magnitude away from the observed data. Furthermore, the model can only offer projections - it cannot divine the future, and the results spit out from them are not data. They are guesses that mean nothing if they do not follow the observations.
Moreover, the majority of the country has been following the virus spread mitigation guidelines for the past several weeks - again, as indicated by the data, not the model projections. (EDIT: I don't always have POTUS back me up in real-time, but when he does... )To tell the public "Hey, here's where we're at-- BUT HERE'S WHERE WE COULD'VE BEEN ZOMG STAY INSIDE THE SKY IS FALLING!!"is fear porn.
Right now, models are, and will continue to be, pointless. We're already slowing the spread on this end, and POTUS's decisive actions to distribute resources and get treatments where they need to be will get us through this, and the next step is getting everyone to work while maintaining the more common-sense aspects of virus mitigation.
With respect, you're grossly mistaken re: skeptics of the models == shills.
The actions of POTUS have saved lives - that's a well-understood certainty. Without the early actions taken and the strong attention devoted to this problem, more people likely would have died/will die from this thing.
That said, the model projections being shown to us have been unrealistic (please see https://thedonald.win/p/FMXVupM8/the-imhe-models-of-wuhan-coronav/c/ as an example). Yes, a model is garbage if, when updating with new data, it fails to follow the trend of the data already obtained; and it is absolute garbage when its best guess is an order of magnitude away from the observed data. Furthermore, the model can only offer projections - it cannot divine the future, and the results spit out from them are not data. They are guesses that mean nothing if they do not follow the observations.
Moreover, the majority of the country has been following the virus spread mitigation guidelines for the past several weeks - again, as indicated by the data, not the model projections. (EDIT: I don't always have POTUS back me up in real-time, but when he does... )To tell the public "Hey, here's where we're at-- BUT HERE'S WHERE WE COULD'VE BEEN ZOMG STAY INSIDE THE SKY IS FALLING!!" is fear porn.
Right now, models are, and will continue to be, pointless. We're already slowing the spread on this end, and POTUS's decisive actions to distribute resources and get treatments where they need to be will get us through this, and the next step is getting everyone to work while maintaining the more common-sense aspects of virus mitigation.