The Curve is Already Flat — Evidence suggests that COVID-19 was here in November
(www.morozkoforge.com)
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Been saying that since early March.
The only thing we could say for certain is that we were seeing an uptick in successful testing. Nothing more. Nothing less.
We don't know who patient zero is. We don't know when the virus began. We don't have a clue as to how many total infections there have been including asymptomatics.
As a citizen this has been frustrating, but as a data scientist this has been absolutely fucking INFURIATING. Watching colleague after colleague fail to point out this basic reasoning has made me question my entire profession.
Further we don't know not because it is unknowable, but because the CCP took action to hide the virus, and then used their paid stooge in the WHO to spread their message.
Also you're not wrong, 99% of data "scientists" are hacks with a bare minimum understanding of basic statistics. The field is a gold rush that unqualified people are running into.
I never had to take a statics class in college and even I know the data is shit and the models are based on more shit.
All I know is 2+2 DOES NOT EQUAL 5, but everyone for some reason wants to accept that it does and call me a heretic for questioning the "experts". Where is the 1?
Great comment. Wish could upvote more. Your reasoning is sound, logically valid and well grounded yet it is not accepted by the media, it is currently being banned, removed and labeled fake news.
This is as close to insanity the media has ever gotten
Spez: also to echo your point, if the exact seed date in the US had been known, and testing assymptomatics had been done (nov), that data would have drastically flattened the original IHME doomsday curve and the assymtomatics who tested would have proven that recovery rate was extremely high. The fact that the IHME did not take this into account, is downright alarming
Right? You think 'scientists' or 'doctors' or 'judges' should be held in high esteem... until you watch them flop when professionalism is most needed.
billions are spent on a pandemic and, already nearing the end, we don't have an accurate estimate of the lethality, time to live in air and surfaces or accurate r0. (all terms I learned at the beginning of this virus to find out if I should be worried)
I’ve HAD IT with these so called experts. As a recent graduate of high school (10 years ago) I knew the lack of education in schools, the amount of teachers constantly pushing thru kids who were unable to count their own fingers (I watched one girl literally bring her disgusting whore of a mom in every single test she failed and literally YELL at the teacher in the middle of class til the teacher passed her, they finally had to kick her out of calculus for being so retarded and the teacher had tenure and couldn’t give a fuck about her) would come back to bite us in the ass one day. Sure enough, all these “experts” on TV are just as dumb as that girl, but had everything handed to them their whole life so they just waltzed into these positions. I’m not even a data expert, but as a medical technologist, listening to these idiots talk about antibodies and vaccines and transmission rates is, you put it best, INFURIATING.