Great comment. Wish could upvote more. Your reasoning is sound, logically valid and well grounded yet it is not accepted by the media, it is currently being banned, removed and labeled fake news.

This is as close to insanity the media has ever gotten

Spez: also to echo your point, if the exact seed date in the US had been known, and testing assymptomatics had been done (nov), that data would have drastically flattened the original IHME doomsday curve and the assymtomatics who tested would have proven that recovery rate was extremely high. The fact that the IHME did not take this into account, is downright alarming