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34
uvontheterrible 34 points ago +41 / -7

I don't buy it. Those numbers are based on models that have proven to be very defective. Throwing out numbers like that is a weak attempt to justify the destruction our government has inflicted on this country.

We need to start opening up states without big problems NOW, with the more hard hit states following shortly after.

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letrain 28 points ago +30 / -2

Ssshhhh. All the Dems used those numbers to blast Trump's response, so we will use it against them. ;)

23
MAGADeusVult [S] 23 points ago +24 / -1

Yup, Dems were claiming that 2.2 million people would die from the CHINESE coronavirus. Now it will be closer to 60,000. We need to cite their 2.2 million number whenever talking about this virus.

11
uvontheterrible 11 points ago +12 / -1

The problem with giving that number any credibility whatsoever is that people will use it as an excuse to keep the country locked down. That number is pure speculation.

8
Dirk_Diggler 8 points ago +8 / -0

Yep, they will be either forced to reconcile the facts that either their projections were wildly inaccurate (looking at you, "climate change), or they will have to credit the president with saving millions of lives. The left really painted themselves in a corner with this mess. They can try and weasel their way around this, but it's too glaringly obvious at this point.

3
ProphetOfKek 3 points ago +3 / -0

Losers gonna lose. They keep finding themselves in no-win situations. Because they are losers.

1
letrain 1 point ago +1 / -0

Yup. And Trump's recommendations saved them all.

1
dickwagger 1 point ago +2 / -1

I would also like to have a serious investigation into every death atributed to the Wu Flu.

I know that's not really possible but you get my point.

21
deadbeaf 21 points ago +21 / -0

Actually, like other posters are saying, this is really the icing on the cake. They either have to concede that the original numbers were completely wrong and that not that many would have died anyways, or they have to concede that the US response worked.

In either situation Trump wins and the MSM image goes down the tubes.

If they concede the numbers were wrong and the initial panic was uncalled for as an attempt to reduce the value of the Trump response, Redpills across America will be shoved down the throat of unsuspecting liberals and independents when they realize they were furloughed and fired over plain and simple irresponsible journalism.

If they refuse to do that, they really can't run the stories anymore that the Trump response has been inadequate, especially as our case numbers and antibody testing start to really downgrade the mortality rate of the virus. This Redpill is a little more subtle, but ultimately the real kicker will be the anger of the unemployed after this whole thing subsides.

At many times I doubt the whole '5d chess' meme as Trump just getting repeatedly lucky, but this one seems like a true interdimensional checkmate.

10
gabwinone 10 points ago +10 / -0

"...as Trump just getting repeatedly lucky..."

The success of the brilliant, prescient, hardworking and industrious may appear to be "luck" to others.

3
T-Bear 3 points ago +3 / -0

^^^THIS^^^

2
Long_time_lurker 2 points ago +2 / -0

'Luck' is the first excuse of every sore loser.

3
MAGADeusVult [S] 3 points ago +3 / -0

This! Trump comes out the winner if this 2.2 million projected dead coronavirus statistics is used. Either Trump did an amazing job and saved over 2.1 million lives or Democrats and the media were wrong and wrecked our economy for nothing. This will be the biggest redpill ever.

2
deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
3
T-Bear 3 points ago +3 / -0

He's already dropped little statements in his pressers he's moving quicker than the Democrats, Fauci, or Birx want to.

His original timeline was around Easter - and in his last couple of pressers, both Fauci and Birx have had to admit the numbers are leveling off. All the stupid reporter questions center around the lame "if the EXPERTS say keep it closed" BS.

I think I would be 100% spot on to say Trump not only is looking at the numbers hard for the earliest possible date - he's got a optimistic plan to do this big.

He doesn't think like a politician - he thinks like a businessman and MAGA is his business and product.

6
Zog1 6 points ago +7 / -1

I think we will only really know after we have antibody testing to determine the actual infection rate and thus the actual fatality rate. The local hospital here (city of 120k people) has 17 workers infected and there’s only 35 people infected outside of that hospital. Theoretically you would think those hospital workers got it from whichever of the 35 were at the hospital, and presumptively they were wearing appropriate PPE and still got infected. So it seems like it’s pretty incredibly contagious. The thing we don’t know is the actual fatality rate.

3
WeThoughtYouWasAToad 3 points ago +5 / -2

How many calories are in a fingertip worth of Cheeto dust? Now, how many calories are in 135 fingerfulls of Cheeto dust?

Being exposed to that many people breathing/coughing/sneezing virus particles, of course it'd be bad. Being exposed to ONE person at the grocery store, however, is not going to lead to you spreading the virus to 125 people at your workplace and a subsequent nationwide pandemic.

5
Cmchn 5 points ago +5 / -0

Back in the fall, pretty much my entire department was out over about 2-4 weeks with a bad flu. I probably got exposed to it back in the beginning, lol.

1
PraiseBeToScience 1 point ago +1 / -0

Whoosh ;)

1
ShampocalypseWOW 1 point ago +1 / -0

If there was no effort to stop the spread, then 2 million in the US would be pretty reasonable. The virus spreads much more easily than a normal flu, so while a normal flu usually infects an average of 60 million or so, we can assume that the Chinese virus would infect many more than that. Let's say it infects 100 million over the course of many months (entirely possible). Two million deaths would be a death rate of 2%, which is what we've been seeing. Of course, the likely number of infections would probably be much higher, so 2 million deaths would be less than 2%, but the percent is irrelevant. The Chinese virus is much more deadly than a normal flu virus. Not as much as we were told, and not as much as the numbers in many countries would suggest since they're overblowing their numbers for political reasons. But 2 million is absolutely realistic in a scenario where we do nothing. Frankly I would expect many more than that with zero intervention.

1
uvontheterrible 1 point ago +1 / -0

If there was no effort to stop the spread, then 2 million in the US would be pretty reasonable.

This is pure speculation. We'll really never know. The only think we have to go on are models which have proven to be very inaccurate

But the real point is, it's a false argument to even talk about "if we did nothing", and it's completely dishonest for any model to publish numbers for that scenario, because it is not a reasonable scenario. Even if the government did nothing, the population, organically, would have taken steps to start social distancing. If That many people were getting sick, people would have naturally eliminated non-essential travel and trips out of the house, so the whole 2 Million number is a fraud any way you look at it.

1
ShampocalypseWOW 1 point ago +1 / -0

The only think we have to go on are models which have proven to be very inaccurate

Not at all. Look at what I said. I'm basing this on actual data about regular flues. We know for a fact that the Chinese virus is at least 10 times more deadly than a normal flu, which usually kills around .1%. We also know that this virus spreads much more easily than a regular flu, so it would absolutely infect more people. In a country of over 300 million, it's easy to imagine one in three getting infected.

it's a false argument to even talk about "if we did nothing"

No, you just don't understand what I'm even saying. You're saying the 2 million number is based on bad models and so the number is totally outside the realm of possibility. I explained why it's not based on models and why it's perfectly reasonable to assume that number could happen in a realistic scenario (doing nothing, like we do pretty much every year).

0
uvontheterrible 0 points ago +1 / -1

We don't know the Chinese virus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. Since we really have no idea how many people have been infected, and we won't until there are large scale antibody tests, we have no idea what the actual fatality rate is.

It seems generally agreed on that the virus spreads more easily than the flu, but even here, experts disagree wildly, with some saying it has an R value of 2.5 and some saying it has an R value of 6, thus, depending on which value you use you will get dramatically different results from the model.

It will probably be months or even years before they have real answers to these questions. Until they have done all the analysis and fully understand the virus, it will be speculation. I do believe that a year or two from now, someone will be able to construct a reliable model based on everything we've learned and predict what would have happened under various conditions with a reasonable amount of certainty, but at this point it's just one step beyond guessing.