Trump saved over 2.1 million lives from the Chinese coronavirus. Democrats:
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If there was no effort to stop the spread, then 2 million in the US would be pretty reasonable. The virus spreads much more easily than a normal flu, so while a normal flu usually infects an average of 60 million or so, we can assume that the Chinese virus would infect many more than that. Let's say it infects 100 million over the course of many months (entirely possible). Two million deaths would be a death rate of 2%, which is what we've been seeing. Of course, the likely number of infections would probably be much higher, so 2 million deaths would be less than 2%, but the percent is irrelevant. The Chinese virus is much more deadly than a normal flu virus. Not as much as we were told, and not as much as the numbers in many countries would suggest since they're overblowing their numbers for political reasons. But 2 million is absolutely realistic in a scenario where we do nothing. Frankly I would expect many more than that with zero intervention.
This is pure speculation. We'll really never know. The only think we have to go on are models which have proven to be very inaccurate
But the real point is, it's a false argument to even talk about "if we did nothing", and it's completely dishonest for any model to publish numbers for that scenario, because it is not a reasonable scenario. Even if the government did nothing, the population, organically, would have taken steps to start social distancing. If That many people were getting sick, people would have naturally eliminated non-essential travel and trips out of the house, so the whole 2 Million number is a fraud any way you look at it.
Not at all. Look at what I said. I'm basing this on actual data about regular flues. We know for a fact that the Chinese virus is at least 10 times more deadly than a normal flu, which usually kills around .1%. We also know that this virus spreads much more easily than a regular flu, so it would absolutely infect more people. In a country of over 300 million, it's easy to imagine one in three getting infected.
No, you just don't understand what I'm even saying. You're saying the 2 million number is based on bad models and so the number is totally outside the realm of possibility. I explained why it's not based on models and why it's perfectly reasonable to assume that number could happen in a realistic scenario (doing nothing, like we do pretty much every year).
We don't know the Chinese virus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. Since we really have no idea how many people have been infected, and we won't until there are large scale antibody tests, we have no idea what the actual fatality rate is.
It seems generally agreed on that the virus spreads more easily than the flu, but even here, experts disagree wildly, with some saying it has an R value of 2.5 and some saying it has an R value of 6, thus, depending on which value you use you will get dramatically different results from the model.
It will probably be months or even years before they have real answers to these questions. Until they have done all the analysis and fully understand the virus, it will be speculation. I do believe that a year or two from now, someone will be able to construct a reliable model based on everything we've learned and predict what would have happened under various conditions with a reasonable amount of certainty, but at this point it's just one step beyond guessing.
No, we actually do know that it's more deadly. And we know that it spreads more easily. That's based on the genetic makeup of the virus and by looking at its genes we can tell that. The R value has nothing to do with that judgement. The reality is that the virus can take hold and infect someone with a much smaller viral load than with a typical flu, and that's due to how it infects someone (it works differently than influenza viruses, and really different from most corona viruses, because it was made in a lab). We know it's more deadly also because of how it infects people (and where). It can infect pretty much any part of the body, unlike most viruses, and so people with co-morbidities are much more at risk, but so are people without any. Exactly how much more deadly or how much more contagious it is doesn't matter. There are too many factors to make a worthwhile blanket statement. But based on the numbers we're seeing, and taking them with a big grain of salt, 2 million is entirely within the realm of possibility.