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uvontheterrible 0 points ago +1 / -1

We don't know the Chinese virus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. Since we really have no idea how many people have been infected, and we won't until there are large scale antibody tests, we have no idea what the actual fatality rate is.

It seems generally agreed on that the virus spreads more easily than the flu, but even here, experts disagree wildly, with some saying it has an R value of 2.5 and some saying it has an R value of 6, thus, depending on which value you use you will get dramatically different results from the model.

It will probably be months or even years before they have real answers to these questions. Until they have done all the analysis and fully understand the virus, it will be speculation. I do believe that a year or two from now, someone will be able to construct a reliable model based on everything we've learned and predict what would have happened under various conditions with a reasonable amount of certainty, but at this point it's just one step beyond guessing.

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ShampocalypseWOW 1 point ago +1 / -0

No, we actually do know that it's more deadly. And we know that it spreads more easily. That's based on the genetic makeup of the virus and by looking at its genes we can tell that. The R value has nothing to do with that judgement. The reality is that the virus can take hold and infect someone with a much smaller viral load than with a typical flu, and that's due to how it infects someone (it works differently than influenza viruses, and really different from most corona viruses, because it was made in a lab). We know it's more deadly also because of how it infects people (and where). It can infect pretty much any part of the body, unlike most viruses, and so people with co-morbidities are much more at risk, but so are people without any. Exactly how much more deadly or how much more contagious it is doesn't matter. There are too many factors to make a worthwhile blanket statement. But based on the numbers we're seeing, and taking them with a big grain of salt, 2 million is entirely within the realm of possibility.