Nice bit of seculation there based on no evidence special delievered for "our lot". It's interesting that on one hand you believe this virus spreads so quickly and yet despite the massive amounts of world travel it could not have been here a month later here. WHich is of course ridiculous and also goes against your theory of rate of spread and believe that 95% of cases are mild. I wouldn't have too much problem with what you have to say if you werent so condescending ("you lot") and weren't so keen to defend Fauci who clearly has an agenda and who has in fact been part of the problem.
WHich is of course ridiculous and also goes against your theory of rate of spread and believe that 95% of cases are mild.
The reason why is because you need a vector. Someone with the virus needs to travel from the region. Spread it. Incubate it and only then does it show up. It therefore needs to be widespread enough to affect the expat population of Wuhan for it to be transported to the US. It then also needs to be spread among the local population with a lag time till the first cases are noticed.
There was no wave of pneumonia cases in November. There were little dots on the map in China. In December China was still trying to cover it all up by isolating known cases. In January they went into full lockdown.
In short they required 3 months for the spread to reach critical mass.
November. December. January.
Now apply that same pattern to the US.
January. February. March.
Look at that it matches up!
But is we do November. December. January, hey that doesn't line up. December. January. February.... again doesn't line up with the rise in cases and hospitalizations that we see.
Let's walk over it again. China:
Patient zero in November. Doctors notice cases in December. Lockdown January.
Makes sense with an incubation time of between 2-4 weeks.
First cases in the US reported on January 21st imported from Wuhan and Iran. Doctors notice number of cases rising in February. Lockdown in March.
How do you know any of this unless you believe what the Chinese have told you? For some reason you just believe 3 months is the number because it supports your point. You talk about critical mass in 3 months. How do you know. Critical mass so far seems to be April which would make it 4 months so there goes your 3 month lineup theory. You don't actually know what China did or when
"Patient zero" was blocks from my house. You think he was really the first? I was sick with a mild flu before he was known to anybody back in December. Doesn't mean it was WuFlu but it has as much evidence as your theory, that is to say none. Anything based on what you heard from China must be discounted.
You can literally see the 3 month spread right there. You can even see China lying and fudging their numbers. Obviously China is fucking lying, but China can only hide what happens in CHINA. Not outside. Outside of China we see these graphs. So retroactively China's bullshit lies are not complete lies. Somewhere in November this started spreading.
Do I believe patient zero on 17 November in China is actually patient Zero? Of course not. They are trying to hide the fact it came from the biolab. A random shrimp seller is patient zero? Fuck you China. But whether patient zero got out in October or not is irrelevant to how the cases spread.
We see a lag time of slowly increasing cases every 2-4 weeks doubling and then shooting off exponentially. An estimated R0 of 1.5-2.5. Good news is new cases are DOWN! Deaths are DOWN! End of this week multiple states can reopen. Week after that everything but NYC can reopen. NYC can stay closed till end of May.
You are showing me a graph of confirmed cases, nothing more. That is wholly dependent upon testing rates and volumes.
I was talking about the so-callled patient zero in the US last January. There could be no confirmed cases until after that. Doesn't mean it wasn't already here and rampant. In fact your assumed incubation time is very off. It is not 2 to 4 weeks as we now know according to the CDC. We could easily have been infected within 5 days of someone from China coming here as they do in large number.
Nice bit of seculation there based on no evidence special delievered for "our lot". It's interesting that on one hand you believe this virus spreads so quickly and yet despite the massive amounts of world travel it could not have been here a month later here. WHich is of course ridiculous and also goes against your theory of rate of spread and believe that 95% of cases are mild. I wouldn't have too much problem with what you have to say if you werent so condescending ("you lot") and weren't so keen to defend Fauci who clearly has an agenda and who has in fact been part of the problem.
The reason why is because you need a vector. Someone with the virus needs to travel from the region. Spread it. Incubate it and only then does it show up. It therefore needs to be widespread enough to affect the expat population of Wuhan for it to be transported to the US. It then also needs to be spread among the local population with a lag time till the first cases are noticed.
There was no wave of pneumonia cases in November. There were little dots on the map in China. In December China was still trying to cover it all up by isolating known cases. In January they went into full lockdown.
In short they required 3 months for the spread to reach critical mass.
November. December. January.
Now apply that same pattern to the US.
January. February. March.
Look at that it matches up!
But is we do November. December. January, hey that doesn't line up. December. January. February.... again doesn't line up with the rise in cases and hospitalizations that we see.
Let's walk over it again. China:
Patient zero in November. Doctors notice cases in December. Lockdown January.
Makes sense with an incubation time of between 2-4 weeks.
First cases in the US reported on January 21st imported from Wuhan and Iran. Doctors notice number of cases rising in February. Lockdown in March.
How do you know any of this unless you believe what the Chinese have told you? For some reason you just believe 3 months is the number because it supports your point. You talk about critical mass in 3 months. How do you know. Critical mass so far seems to be April which would make it 4 months so there goes your 3 month lineup theory. You don't actually know what China did or when
"Patient zero" was blocks from my house. You think he was really the first? I was sick with a mild flu before he was known to anybody back in December. Doesn't mean it was WuFlu but it has as much evidence as your theory, that is to say none. Anything based on what you heard from China must be discounted.
Here is a graph tool.
You can literally see the 3 month spread right there. You can even see China lying and fudging their numbers. Obviously China is fucking lying, but China can only hide what happens in CHINA. Not outside. Outside of China we see these graphs. So retroactively China's bullshit lies are not complete lies. Somewhere in November this started spreading.
Do I believe patient zero on 17 November in China is actually patient Zero? Of course not. They are trying to hide the fact it came from the biolab. A random shrimp seller is patient zero? Fuck you China. But whether patient zero got out in October or not is irrelevant to how the cases spread.
We see a lag time of slowly increasing cases every 2-4 weeks doubling and then shooting off exponentially. An estimated R0 of 1.5-2.5. Good news is new cases are DOWN! Deaths are DOWN! End of this week multiple states can reopen. Week after that everything but NYC can reopen. NYC can stay closed till end of May.
You are showing me a graph of confirmed cases, nothing more. That is wholly dependent upon testing rates and volumes.
I was talking about the so-callled patient zero in the US last January. There could be no confirmed cases until after that. Doesn't mean it wasn't already here and rampant. In fact your assumed incubation time is very off. It is not 2 to 4 weeks as we now know according to the CDC. We could easily have been infected within 5 days of someone from China coming here as they do in large number.