I was exploring the CDC FluView data and juxtaposing them against the state's own stats from COVIDtracker.
At the end of week 14 (April 5) and week 15 (April 12), in NY, there were 4,159 and 9,385 total COVID-19 deaths, meaning that during week 15 5,226 people died from COVID-19.
According to the CDC FluView data (which helpfully provides total weekly deaths from flu, pneumonia, as well as all causes), the TOTAL number of deaths in the whole state of NY that week was... 3,940. This means that 133% of people in NY died from COVID-19 during week 15. As GEOTUS says, "Sad!"
Now, jokes aside, CDC is slow, and currently is processing week 16 data, and while week 15 FluView data are labeled as ">100%" processed, they are likely to increase, perhaps substantially. Week 14 data though -- much less likely.
Yet, this analysis produces similarly weird results for week 14. At the end of week 13 (March 29), there were 965 COVID-19 deaths, meaning that 3,194 people died during week 14. The total number of deaths that week in the entire NY state was 3,373. This means that 95% of all deaths during week 14 were attributed to COVID-19.
Now, what if the number of deaths increased 10-fold due to a raging pandemic, I asked myself (as any reasonable person would)?
No, it did not. In the prior 4 years, there were, on average, 1,991 (+/- 60) total deaths during week 14 in NY.
Thus, at (3,373-3,194=) 179, the total number of COVID-unrelated deaths in NY during week 14 decreased by 91%.
Make your own conclusions.
Sources:
I've already made my own conclusions, your assessment of the data just serves to validate them.
Same here. Yet I'm forced into new rabbit holes every so often when yet another acquaintance doesn't want to do the legwork. Not that I care about them... But it's such a delight to smack them with data -- and occasionally I find these gems.
This was the week/day they added post 3700 more cases/deaths.
Since they did not spec days actual day died they got lumped into a single point.
This would explain it.
There's going to be a lot of confusion since the numbers aren't being properly updated or backfilled.
This happened on April 14 (week 16). Yes, numbers will be updated -- yet, such an incredible discrepancy is still jaw-dropping.
For example, on 04/20, the National FluView data had 51,602, 52,285 and 49,292 total deaths for weeks12, 13 and 14 (at that time, week 15 was being processed), and on 04/24 those numbers were updated to 53,130, 55,778 and 60,195 -- an increase of 3, 7 and 22%, respectively. I did not download the data on 04/20, so I cannot speak for NY, but from the national data it appears that the data 2-3 weeks behind the most recent fully processed week are are relatively stable.
This fuckery happened on April 14, so had they counted those deaths "correctly" (lol) before, they might've hit 200%.
This needs to be stickied!
Well, thank you for the endorsement! On a related note, this is my first post anywhere ever... A very cozy place we have here!
All your deaths are belong to corona virus! And 133% of the voter rolls will vote for the dems.
On the positive side , pneumonia influenza drug overdoses and heart disease has been cured in New York.🤷🏻♂️
cuomo should be informed, It was a PERFECT phone call