With all due respect, you need to focus a bit more down range. This is not about President Trump, it's about the Americans who elected him and the freedom they represent.
It's easy to lose sight of this, but it's true. None of this changes after President Trump leaves office. These leftists will still want us dead and will still agitate for socialism. They will attack anyone who carries the banner of freedom, and President Trump is simply the largest target right now.
Here are some screenshots of the spreadsheet I created. I will happily upload this somewhere, but I don't know where to share excel docs and I'm not using a Google Drive because fuck Google.
I have included 166 countries in this spreadsheet but have not included the ones where number of tests performed is unavailable. I also did not include China because they are liars and nothing they say is true.
Methodology:
Positive Test Rate was calculated by dividing number of cases by number of tests for each country.
Extrapolated Cases was calculated by multiplying positive test rate by total population
Death Rate was calculated by dividing "confirmed" deaths by total extrapolated cases.
Why did I do it this way? Because this is EXACTLY how the CDC calculates the flu numbers every year.
Findings:
The average positive test rate across the world is only 9.82%. 90 tests out of 100 are negative.
The median positive test rate across the world is 5.09%. 95 tests out of 100 are negative.
The US is currently at a 17.31% positive test rate, while France is at a 35.89% positive test rate.
Conversely Germany has a 6.33% positive test rate and Portugal has a 6.46% positive test rate
Using the average test rate across the world shows 572,344,035 cases which puts the world death rate at 0.0389%
Using the median test rate across the world to extrapolate total cases shows 296,481,154 cases which puts the world death rate at 0.0751%
For comparison In the United states the flu is usually around 0.095%.
The highest death rates in the world are Italy (0.4297%), Spain (0.3100%), and Belgium (0.3066%). San Marino does have a 0.4797% death rate but is estimated to only have 8,547 cases.
The United States Death Rate is 0.1073% while the UK is at 0.1905%
Currently in the US the flu is just as deadly as the coronavirus as a whole for the nation.
Worldwide coronavirus is between 33% and 80% as deadly as the flu (based on the US average flu death rate of 0.095%)
Am I correct in saying your approach assumes the rate of infection between the population actually tested and the population still left untested is the same?
If so, how would you support this? Don't people self-select for testing when symptoms are evident or exposure to an infected person was recent?
This data set is estimating the number of cases that exist beyond those that have only tested positive.
This is not a predictive model of future cases or infection rate. That is not what this data set is attempting to show. This is estimating actual cases that exist NOW.
This is an estimation of the total number of cases worldwide based on the 31M tests that have been performed and using that 31M sample size to estimate the current number of unreported/untested cases - This is the same way the flu impact is calculated.
Not everyone shows symptoms. Not everyone that shows symptoms will get tested. This is an attempt, using the CDC methodology for the flu, to estimate the actual number of cases that exist today.
OK. I was hoping there was a link to the raw dataset because I'm too lazy to write a couple lines of code to scrape that table. Of course I forgot the easier route of ctrl-c and ctrl-v and importing via a spreadsheet. LOL.
spez: do you have a link that lays out the CDC methodology? It's not important; this will just be a fun side project to drop into a jupyter notebook and share with some other stats nerds at work.
Oh they're already pushing the "2nd curve" narrative because the entire thing fizzled out before they could roll out the chipping and mandatory vaccines.
I mostly agree with you there. Freedom > safety. Let those who don't want any risk stay at home, and those who want the risk to go out.
I'm just making the point that even if the curve looks right at the bottom, it can easily go high again if just one person has the Coronavirus and everyone starts going out in public again. Saying "we're completely over it" is in conflict with that.
You basically saying we can never make the Coronavirus go extinct anyway? If so, fair point.
Otherwise, whilst I might be alright with the idea of having a 1-3% chance of dying from Corona, I'm not okay passing it onto elderly people, where that percentage will be much greater.
I think it's arguably sound that sacrificing 6 months of people having to quarantine saves 3% of the population. Assuming it is 3%.
Would you think 6 months quarantine would be alright for I dunno, say, saving 10% of the population, if not 3%? Where would you put the limit?
Yeah, no. Way too high. There are death rates posted in this very thread. You are 10-30x overestimating.
Would you think 6 months quarantine would be alright for I dunno, say, saving 10% of the population, if not 3%? Where would you put the limit?
The limit for me is never. Unless we're at zombie plague-level status, there's no scenario where I'm okay with quarantining the entire healthy population for any amount of time. Your argument can be used to justify shutting down the country for months at a time for nearly any reason the government deems necessary for "our safety".
We are never, EVER going to remove the risk of one person spreading it again, even with a vaccine. Definitely not worth killing tens of thousands more from unemployment factors, and bankrupting millions of families. It would just be astronomically stupid.
They have to keep this going until at least November. They need to have their mail in ballets across the country, a destroyed economy, and a ban on Trump rallies.
Imagine if the MSM were to admit that the problems in NYC were because conditions in NYC before the virus were SO BAD that a massively higher percentage of the population were far more susceptible to the virus and sickly and weak and living in filth.
Imagine how hard the MSM is trying to pretend that this is a problem nation wide because of an ongoing health catastrophe in NYC of people living like vermin.
So in remote counties in Texas we're walking around with masks on and can't go to school because of how nasty NYC is and how awful the health of its residents are!
It was never about flattening the curve, it's about stiffling Trump and not letting a good crisis go to waste.
If there is an open business I will patronize it
The government is currently 'patronizing' us all...
This ^^^^^^^^
With all due respect, you need to focus a bit more down range. This is not about President Trump, it's about the Americans who elected him and the freedom they represent.
It's easy to lose sight of this, but it's true. None of this changes after President Trump leaves office. These leftists will still want us dead and will still agitate for socialism. They will attack anyone who carries the banner of freedom, and President Trump is simply the largest target right now.
The "deal" which isn't a deal at all.
I never agreed to their deal, and I won't abide it.
I pulled the latest data available from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries for the China Flu because I was curious what the data showed.
Here are some screenshots of the spreadsheet I created. I will happily upload this somewhere, but I don't know where to share excel docs and I'm not using a Google Drive because fuck Google.
https://imgur.com/lVxJYoS
https://imgur.com/UNUTlHD
https://imgur.com/OVENH58
https://imgur.com/cHMpV6L
I have included 166 countries in this spreadsheet but have not included the ones where number of tests performed is unavailable. I also did not include China because they are liars and nothing they say is true.
Methodology:
Positive Test Rate was calculated by dividing number of cases by number of tests for each country.
Extrapolated Cases was calculated by multiplying positive test rate by total population
Death Rate was calculated by dividing "confirmed" deaths by total extrapolated cases.
Why did I do it this way? Because this is EXACTLY how the CDC calculates the flu numbers every year.
Findings:
The average positive test rate across the world is only 9.82%. 90 tests out of 100 are negative.
The median positive test rate across the world is 5.09%. 95 tests out of 100 are negative.
The US is currently at a 17.31% positive test rate, while France is at a 35.89% positive test rate.
Conversely Germany has a 6.33% positive test rate and Portugal has a 6.46% positive test rate
Using the average test rate across the world shows 572,344,035 cases which puts the world death rate at 0.0389%
Using the median test rate across the world to extrapolate total cases shows 296,481,154 cases which puts the world death rate at 0.0751%
For comparison In the United states the flu is usually around 0.095%.
The highest death rates in the world are Italy (0.4297%), Spain (0.3100%), and Belgium (0.3066%). San Marino does have a 0.4797% death rate but is estimated to only have 8,547 cases.
The United States Death Rate is 0.1073% while the UK is at 0.1905%
Currently in the US the flu is just as deadly as the coronavirus as a whole for the nation.
Worldwide coronavirus is between 33% and 80% as deadly as the flu (based on the US average flu death rate of 0.095%)
Thank you for doing this.
spez: Where do you download the raw dataset from worldometer?
I copied the data from the webpage into a spreadsheet then added additional columns to:
Calculate total population (Total tests / Tests per 1M X 1 million),
positive test rate (total cases / total tests),
extrapolated tests (Total population X positive test rate)
death rate (Total deaths / Extrapolated Cases)
Am I correct in saying your approach assumes the rate of infection between the population actually tested and the population still left untested is the same?
If so, how would you support this? Don't people self-select for testing when symptoms are evident or exposure to an infected person was recent?
This data set is estimating the number of cases that exist beyond those that have only tested positive.
This is not a predictive model of future cases or infection rate. That is not what this data set is attempting to show. This is estimating actual cases that exist NOW.
This is an estimation of the total number of cases worldwide based on the 31M tests that have been performed and using that 31M sample size to estimate the current number of unreported/untested cases - This is the same way the flu impact is calculated.
Not everyone shows symptoms. Not everyone that shows symptoms will get tested. This is an attempt, using the CDC methodology for the flu, to estimate the actual number of cases that exist today.
OK. I was hoping there was a link to the raw dataset because I'm too lazy to write a couple lines of code to scrape that table. Of course I forgot the easier route of ctrl-c and ctrl-v and importing via a spreadsheet. LOL.
spez: do you have a link that lays out the CDC methodology? It's not important; this will just be a fun side project to drop into a jupyter notebook and share with some other stats nerds at work.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
I will warn you that you will have to look at their referenced sources at the bottom of articles to get a better look into their full methodology.
Thank you. As I said, I'm being lazy. I appreciate pointing me in the right direction!
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1545C_dJWMIAgqeLEsfo2U8Kq5WprDuARXrJl6N1aDjY/preview
R2D2 is taller than nadler
But Jabba isn't as fat or disgusting.
Flat? We're completely over it.
https://kekpe.pe/i/5ea9d7070be10.jpeg
Maybe we should wait until the curve falls off the other end of the chart. Juuuuust in case the boogie man is around the next corner.
Oh they're already pushing the "2nd curve" narrative because the entire thing fizzled out before they could roll out the chipping and mandatory vaccines.
I think there is a delay in reporting with that data.
There's exact dates on the x axis, and precise numbers on the y axis. And it shows the peak nearly 5 weeks ago.
Yeah I'm sure it's dropping but I don't think it's dropped to zero the last few days
Only takes one person with the virus for it all to blow up again. Exponential growth is horrible like that.
Then stay the fuck home cuck. Nobody's forcing you to go outdoors and expose yourself to the horrible Shanghai Sniffles.
Lock your doors, shut your blinds, and hide under a blanket until your wife's boyfriend gives you permission.
Damn right
I mostly agree with you there. Freedom > safety. Let those who don't want any risk stay at home, and those who want the risk to go out.
I'm just making the point that even if the curve looks right at the bottom, it can easily go high again if just one person has the Coronavirus and everyone starts going out in public again. Saying "we're completely over it" is in conflict with that.
We're still not completely over the seasonal flu. We haven't been for centuries and we never will be. We brace for impact and persevere.
Its the flu, man up.
You basically saying we can never make the Coronavirus go extinct anyway? If so, fair point.
Otherwise, whilst I might be alright with the idea of having a 1-3% chance of dying from Corona, I'm not okay passing it onto elderly people, where that percentage will be much greater.
I think it's arguably sound that sacrificing 6 months of people having to quarantine saves 3% of the population. Assuming it is 3%.
Would you think 6 months quarantine would be alright for I dunno, say, saving 10% of the population, if not 3%? Where would you put the limit?
Yeah, no. Way too high. There are death rates posted in this very thread. You are 10-30x overestimating.
The limit for me is never. Unless we're at zombie plague-level status, there's no scenario where I'm okay with quarantining the entire healthy population for any amount of time. Your argument can be used to justify shutting down the country for months at a time for nearly any reason the government deems necessary for "our safety".
I sympathize. If it had a 95%+ mortality rate, maybe that would count as zombie plague level for you?
We are never, EVER going to remove the risk of one person spreading it again, even with a vaccine. Definitely not worth killing tens of thousands more from unemployment factors, and bankrupting millions of families. It would just be astronomically stupid.
Risky click of the day right here
Flatten the curve? It's called seasonality. The warm weather always gets respiratory bugs. We have nothing to fear.
Reasonable precautions, like GO AHEAD AND STAY THE FUCK HOME IF YOURE SCARED
IM HUGGING PEOPLE AGAIN
Vader was a new deal Democrat.
https://www.wehaverights.com/
They have to keep this going until at least November. They need to have their mail in ballets across the country, a destroyed economy, and a ban on Trump rallies.
This has been the worst deal in the history of deals, maybe ever.
Imagine if the MSM were to admit that the problems in NYC were because conditions in NYC before the virus were SO BAD that a massively higher percentage of the population were far more susceptible to the virus and sickly and weak and living in filth.
Imagine how hard the MSM is trying to pretend that this is a problem nation wide because of an ongoing health catastrophe in NYC of people living like vermin.
So in remote counties in Texas we're walking around with masks on and can't go to school because of how nasty NYC is and how awful the health of its residents are!
Death by a thousand tiny cuts.
Now that there is funny!
Darth Blue State Gov.
The curve is concave
Hmm this appears to be your only comment.
Shill detected. Bye-bye.
puts on tin foil hat
YOU CAN'T FLATTEN THE CURVE, THE CURVE IS A GLOBE!